| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2019 |
In Hayek's account, knowledge is consolidated via prices and arbitrageurs, who trade products, services and financial securities, not binary bets.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2019 |
Value at Risk is not a coherent risk measure because it violates subadditivity.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2019 |
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) satisfies the coherence (subadditivity) bound.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2019 |
The ConvNet architecture was loosely inspired by the ventral pathway in the visual cortex.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2019 |
ReLU nonlinearities and dropout regularization enabled purely supervised backprop training of very deep networks with a dozen layers.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2019 |
Most natural and socio-economic variables are continuous and have no compact support, so no exact upper bound is known.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2019 |
The expected value of collateral conditional on default is often far lower than its unconditional expectation.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
2019 |
Usage of graph neural networks will increase for a wide variety of applications likely to violate the assumptions of current deep learning hardware.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
2019 |
As DL is used for high-level cognitive tasks, memory modules will become commonplace and very large, requiring hardware support.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
Italy, Germany, Japan and Spain moved from democracies to dictatorships, with Italy first.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
As of late 2018, the US expansion is nine years old and central banks have bought $15-16 trillion of assets.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
The US embargoed Japan's oil, which led to the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
Since the 2008-09 crisis, central banks worldwide have bought about $16 trillion of financial assets, putting about $16 trillion of liquidity into financial markets.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
A number of multinational companies bought companies in other countries and financed the purchases with dollar-denominated debt.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
Dalio said the biggest risks he sees are in the corporate debt market, which he said has increased a lot, with a lot of funding going to private equity firms.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
11 Nov 2018 |
After sanctions were imposed and tensions escalated, Japan took advantage of the European colonies in Asia being unable to defend themselves.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
9 Oct 2018 |
Religious people organize and vote, giving them electoral clout out of proportion to their numbers.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
9 Oct 2018 |
Ronald Reagan was highly successful politically with a message of optimism.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
9 Oct 2018 |
People worldwide are becoming less religious in general, but religious people have more children.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
20 Sep 2018 |
The booster being described is fully reusable and lands down range on a ship.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 20 Sep 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
20 Sep 2018 |
In Amazon's early days Bezos personally delivered all the packages to the post office.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 20 Sep 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
20 Sep 2018 |
Jeff Bezos started Amazon in 1995.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 20 Sep 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Promise |
7 Sep 2018 |
Tesla is about to release software letting cars drive from highway on-ramp to exit, changing lanes and overtaking other cars.
Elon Musk · Promise · 7 Sep 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
15 Jul 2018 |
Kim's research team made their legged robot completely blind to show what its low-level reactive behaviours could do.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 15 Jul 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
15 Jul 2018 |
Gravitational waves, predicted by Einstein in 1916, were first detected in 2015, ninety-nine years later.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 15 Jul 2018 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
17 May 2018 |
Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 17 May 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
17 May 2018 |
On Platform's earnings call, management reiterated it is on track to separate its two businesses in the second half of 2018.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 17 May 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
25 Apr 2018 |
Proof-of-stake and delegated-proof-of-stake are consensus variants that work basically like shareholder votes.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
25 Apr 2018 |
It is possible to delete a Facebook account.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
11 Apr 2018 |
Only a third of Roman emperors died in their bed.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
11 Apr 2018 |
It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
9 Apr 2018 |
Facebook did not do enough to prevent its tools being used for harm regarding fake news, foreign election interference, hate speech, developers and data privacy.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 9 Apr 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
Enlightenment thinkers did not know evolution or thermodynamics.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
Intelligence is in good part heritable.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
For most of human history, life expectancy was about 30 years.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
22 Mar 2018 |
Studies show that when data concern a political hot-button issue such as concealed weapon laws, people systematically misread it in the direction favoring their coalition's position.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Feb 2018 |
Yudkowsky said that, as far as the rest of the world knows, the participant in an AI-box experiment later sent a PGP-signed email saying "I let Eliezer out of the box."
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Feb 2018 |
One condition of the AI-box experiment was that no one would ever say what went on inside it.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Feb 2018 |
Even most scientists in the field had no idea how to build a nuclear bomb until the Hiroshima headlines.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Feb 2018 |
Thanks mostly to the cryptocurrency boom, MIRI is no longer short of funds and is instead short of engineering talent.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
13 Feb 2018 |
Murder rates in the Middle Ages were about 35 times higher than they are today.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
13 Feb 2018 |
Many data sets show that rates of violence have gone down over the course of history.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
13 Feb 2018 |
Many religions today accommodate themselves to scientific knowledge, including the Copernican view and the theory of evolution.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
Ray Dalio has practiced transcendental meditation since 1969.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
Combining 15 uncorrelated bets reduces risk by over 80 percent.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
Dalio recalls when "we" got the Kodak account, which he describes as a big deal because Kodak was a big, important client and the account was a stamp of institutional approval.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
Ray Dalio said his video on YouTube had been downloaded 5,000,000 times and was highly rated.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
Ray Dalio analyzed the payments countries owed banks and calculated that those countries would not be able to repay the U.S.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
1 Feb 2018 |
People with bipolar disorder are often very creative.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Promise |
Feb 2018 |
Ørsted's future guidance will only include the effect from existing offshore wind partnership agreements.
Ørsted · Promise · Feb 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
26 Jan 2018 |
Unlike the Internet, which quickly produced email, the World Wide Web and millions of commercial ventures, blockchain's only application, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, does not even fulfill its stated purpose.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 26 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Horseless carriages did not simply replace horse-drawn carriages one for one but required new infrastructure and ownership and usage models.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2018 |
Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2018 |
In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2018 |
PSH exited its investments in Air Products, Hilton, Nomad Foods, an undisclosed position and Valeant during 2017.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
Oct 2017 |
In the mid-to-late 1990s Microsoft bought a couple of companies, which were some of its largest acquisitions.
Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
Oct 2017 |
Microsoft has 43 data center regions as of October 2017.
Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
Oct 2017 |
Microsoft is number two, and in the enterprise it is probably very close to number two.
Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
12 Sep 2017 |
The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
12 Sep 2017 |
Bridgewater has managed money since 1993 for Chinese institutions outside China.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
12 Sep 2017 |
Algorithms will become part of people's lives.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
12 Sep 2017 |
The US economy has gotten past the worst of the leveraging (debt build-up).
Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
12 Sep 2017 |
The top 0.2% of the US population has a net worth equal to that of the bottom 90%.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
7 Sep 2017 |
AI was overestimated in the 1960s and the 1980s, and Brooks believes it is being overestimated again in 2017.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 7 Sep 2017 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
7 Sep 2017 |
Hardware has a significant marginal cost to deploy.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 7 Sep 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
Getting started in machine learning probably requires about a thousand dollars to buy a GPU.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
There was a lot of political instability in the western world in the year before July 2017.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Taleb said he believes a minimum wage is definitely a cause of more unemployment, more use of robots, or jobs moving to places with lower wages.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Skin in the Game is Volume 5 of Taleb's Incerto.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
In Switzerland, authorities go to the local population and ask what they want on such matters.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
22 Jun 2017 |
Facebook used to have a sense that connecting people online would by itself make many things in the world better.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 22 Jun 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
28 May 2017 |
In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Factual |
28 May 2017 |
The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet.
Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
17 Apr 2017 |
Jeff Bezos said he told the Amazon Studios team it was debatable whether a recently greenlit original would be interesting enough, that it was complicated to produce, that the business terms were not that good, and that there were other opportunities.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
17 Apr 2017 |
Jeff Bezos has been reminding people that it is Day 1 for a couple of decades.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
17 Apr 2017 |
No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
11 Apr 2017 |
Church councils such as Nicea and Chalcedon and various synods of bishops insisted on the dual nature (man and god) of Jesus Christ.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2017 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
The neocortex, a layer covering the brain, emerged in mammals two hundred million years ago and is organized as a hierarchy of modules.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
Ray Kurzweil said he visited Rosenblatt in 1962 when he was 14.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
Minsky and Papert's book Perceptrons proved a theorem that perceptrons cannot distinguish connected from disconnected figures.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
Mar 2017 |
The perceptron machine Rosenblatt showed Kurzweil in 1962 could not perform any of the things that, as Dormehl recounts, had been claimed at the time and ridiculed.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
27 Feb 2017 |
Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
27 Feb 2017 |
In 1963, during American Express's Salad Oil Scandal, Buffett visited restaurants to see how people used the American Express card, an approach he first used then.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
27 Feb 2017 |
Berkshire Hathaway does not make hostile takeover bids.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
12 Jan 2017 |
At least one car manufacturer fears human drivers will bully level 2 self-driving cars, so its level 3 real-world trial cars look identical to conventional models.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
12 Jan 2017 |
In level 2 and 3 autonomy, the time available for a person to reorient and respond is often much shorter than people need.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
12 Jan 2017 |
Many groups, including Tesla, have promoted the advantage of cars autonomously handling parking.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Jan 2017 |
Technology |