Claims

Promise · Their own work or organisation

“I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units next year.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO · 24 January 2024 · Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The main test is whether Tesla shipped any Optimus humanoid robots in calendar 2025. The hedge 'good chance' does not change the outcome tested. 'Shipping' means delivering units to customers or partners outside Tesla. The secondary detail, that Musk called Optimus a brand-new product, is checked against the 2024-01-24 earnings-call transcript. TRUE: credible evidence (Tesla shareholder updates, 10-K or credible reporting) shows Tesla delivered at least some Optimus units to external customers or partners by 2025-12-31. MOSTLY TRUE: such deliveries happened, but the transcript shows the 'brand-new product' wording is slightly off. MOSTLY FALSE: in 2025 Optimus units were only used inside Tesla (for example in its own factories), or external shipments started only in 2026 or later. FALSE: Tesla records or reporting from after 2025 show no Optimus units shipped or deployed in 2025, for example an update describing Optimus as still in development or pilot stage, or a start delayed to a later year.

Evidence

1. Tesla Optimus Tracker: status and timeline | Tesla News Wire Tesla News Wire · 4 November 2026

   “Optimus output: Not disclosed. No robots have been sold.”

2. Tesla’s Optimus robot is going through growing pains The Verge · 25 September 2026

   “However, at the moment they’re still being used internally for specific tasks in limited areas, and not generally or with remote teleoperation.”

3. Tesla Delays External Customer Deliveries of Optimus Robot to Late 2027 — EV Digest EV Digest · 22 October 2026

   “Tesla has pushed back its timeline for delivering the Optimus humanoid robot to external customers until late 2027.”

4. Tesla Optimus Tracker: status and timeline | Tesla News Wire Tesla News Wire · 4 November 2026

   “None yet. Tesla told JPMorgan external sales could start 'as early as' 2H 2027; The Information reported Tesla plans to lease, not sell, to a short list of companies at first. No price, order page or delivery date.”

Reasoning

A November 2026 tracker says no Optimus robots had been sold and no external sales had happened yet. It says the earliest date Tesla reportedly gave for external sales is the second half of 2027 (E1, E4). An October 2026 report says Tesla pushed back delivery to external customers until late 2027 (E3). A September 2026 report says the robots were being used internally for specific tasks in limited areas (E2). None of the evidence shows any delivery to outside customers or partners in 2025: trackers from November 2026 say no robots had been sold and external sales had not started (E1, E4), and Tesla moved external deliveries to late 2027 (E3), so the hoped-for 2025 shipments did not happen by the deadline. The 'brand-new product' wording could not be checked because the earnings-call transcript is not in the evidence.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product.” (said 24 January 2024). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_8a49074c7653, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8a49074c7653