| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Thoughts modify mental imagery, and in turn, mental imagery gives rise to thoughts.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Concept structure is absorbed from recurring regularities in perceived reality.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Slicing up the color space with surface-level concepts renders computationally tractable the detection of higher-order alternation.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Complex functional adaptations requiring multiple genes are usually, and necessarily, universal within a species.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
For humans, four-place and higher predicates are probably represented through procedural rules rather than perceptually; spontaneously…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Yudkowsky cannot introspect on how the salient facet of a concept is selected during concept combination.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to other people who
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Genericity is not the same as generality.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
I told the group that it would be embarrassing if MiTek’s stock price soared beyond that of Berkshire “A” shares.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Tony Nicely became GEICO's CEO in 1992, and GEICO's growth accelerated greatly afterward.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Once you’ve flown NetJets, returning to commercial flights is like going back to holding hands.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
The mental image of the pyramidal light bulb carried semantic content, such as knowledge of its glass composition, imported from the "light bulb" concept.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
The human brain is massively parallel because massive parallelism is the only way to do anything in 200 clock ticks.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
Since September 11, our peace has been broken.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
In addition, Tony has delivered staggering productivity gains in recent years.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Thus, the ontogeny of an AI need not recapitulate human philogeny.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
The U.S. 'investment income' account was positive every year since 1915 until it turned negative in 2006.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Call this promise the adult version of Lake Woebegon.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Intelligence requires more than passive correspondence between internal representations and sensory data, or between sensory data and…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
In practice, setting up the fiveness microtask may prove more difficult because of the need to eliminate various false ways of arriving at a…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Evolution often finds good ways, but rarely the best ways.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
General intelligence requires the right supersystem, with the right cognitive subsystems, doing the right things in the right way.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
it can be decades before the chickens come home to roost
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Current neuroscience theory allows for but does not assert feature controllers, whereas DGI asserts and requires their existence.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
2007 |
Leo Strauss believes there is a truth about human nature that can in principle be known to humanity.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Don’t think, however, that we have lost our taste for risk.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Human visual categorization abstracts categories such as butterfly from a store of visual experiences rather than writing a procedural recognition codelet from abstract knowledge.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
No new Alexander is in sight to cut the Gordian knot of our age.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Our most important business, insurance, benefited from a large dose of luck:
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Intelligence is not the complex expression of a simple principle; intelligence is the complex expression of a complex set of principles.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
I get goose bumps just thinking about this volume.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
There is a deep correspondence between evolutionarily smooth fitness landscapes and computationally smooth fitness landscapes.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Resolved true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
The overall insurance industry had a terrific year in 2006.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Six years of working with Dave, Greg and Walter have underscored my original belief: Berkshire couldn’t have better partners.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Own records only |
Warren Buffett | Promise |
2007 |
Any shareholder coming from outside the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending the reception.
Warren Buffett · Promise · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Berkshire has done many retroactive reinsurance transactions, a multiple of the number and amount of such policies entered into by any other insurer.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
The significant accomplishment is not “squeezing” numbers out of a system so sparse that it apparently lacks the usual precursors of number.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Resolved true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Buffett said in 2007 that, fifty years earlier, Walter was the only investment manager he recommended to a St. Louis family looking for an honest and able investment manager.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
The 2-and-20 fee arrangement for money managers is spreading.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
But also there cannot be a decision to avoid all decisions and to retreat into studying the Bible in anticipation of the Second Coming, for…
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Whatever the AI accomplishes on its own is a part of the AI’s mind; the AI “owns” it and is not simply borrowing it from the programmers.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
These fears are unwarranted.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
Indeed, there is little in Strauss that is more clear than the need for less transparency.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Mostly true |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
2007 |
For Girard, a post-Darwinian account of humanity must somehow combine the gradualism of Darwinian evolution with the essentialism of the pre-Darwinians.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
The openly intellectual agenda of this essay is to suggest what that reexamination entails.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
standalone algorithms are not substitutes for intelligence and they are not complete systems.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Concepts are supercategories and subcategories of each other; there are concepts that describe concepts and concepts that describe…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
We have no particular evidence that the human mind uses a brute force comparison, but it could be brute-forced.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Berkshire decided in 2006 to offer Equitas a huge reinsurance policy.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
the brute facts of September 11 demand a reexamination of the foundations of modern politics.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
It is the simultaneous solution of concept imposition, concept satisfaction, concept faceting, and concept abstraction that requires…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
The tendency to treat new approaches to AI as if they were new theories of physics may at least partially explain AI’s past history of…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
The human brain is constrained by a characteristic serial speed of 200 sequential steps per second.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Holonic conflict resolution is intended to be biologically plausible
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
If there had been only 600 taxpayers like Berkshire, no one else in America would have needed to pay federal income or payroll taxes.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Citation |
2007 |
Kosslyn et al. (1993) provide neuroimaging evidence that mental imagery activates primary visual cortex.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
When I talked about Walter 23 years ago, his record forcefully contradicted this dogma.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Increasingly the limiting resource of modern computing systems is memory bandwidth rather than processor speed.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
This does not imply that AI can be reduced to a single algorithm containing the “essence of intelligence.”
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Berkshire is prepared to lose $6 billion in a single event if paid appropriately for assuming the risk.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
The heart is not a specialized organ that enables us to run down prey; the heart is a specialized organ that supplies oxygen to the body.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
the freedom of religion, for we cannot ever know what people are truly thinking in the temple of their minds;
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Peter Thiel | Prediction |
2007 |
In the long run, power and prosperity may go to those who follow Locke's capitalist rules, leaving religious fanatics without the wealth and technology to threaten the nonreligious West.
Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Neither Ajit Jain, who manages our super-cat operation, nor I know what lies ahead.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Resolved true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
The Copycat program has a limited store of preprogrammed concepts and does not learn further concepts through experience.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
AI capabilities |
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Yudkowsky said he expected that what is locally a feature detector is also locally a feature controller.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Lloyd's is not an insurance company but a place where member-insurers transact business.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
For there remains another very important boundary whose existence the American people had forgotten.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Charlie and I would like to see this done more often.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Mostly false |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
2007 |
No real economic development took place through postwar wealth transfers, and even in the best cases the money returned to the West in Swiss accounts of Third World dictators.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Even with all precursor concepts already present, a complex microtask might be necessary to make fiveness the simplest correct answer.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
People can remember events such as a birthday party but cannot remember their hippocampus encoding the memory.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2007 |
Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
And GEICO didn’t start fat.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
the logarithmic map transforms simple design problems into complex design problems and hence transforms complex design problems into…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Citation |
2007 |
Tooby and Cosmides (1992) state that evolution has no privileged tendency to build simple, general principles of operation into designs.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
I believe it will prove best to discard the human modalities or to use them as inspiration only
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Peter Thiel | Prediction |
2007 |
One day all will be revealed, all injustices exposed, and perpetrators held to account.
Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Our managers have returned this trust by working hard and effectively.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
The new science of economics and the practice of capitalism filled the vacuum created by the abandonment of the older tradition.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
It’s naïve to think of Katrina as anything close to a worst-case event.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
The specific use of a Gaussian distribution does not contribute to useful intelligence unless the environment also exhibits Gaussian…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
It must be the right five layers.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Evolution is a useful inspiration but a dangerous template.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not researched |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
2007 |
Exxon Mobil and other companies earn far more than Berkshire, but their earnings largely go to dividends and/or repurchases rather than building net worth.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
Simply put, if cable and satellite broadcasting, as well as the internet, had come along first, newspapers as we know them probably would…
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
In a capitalist world, violent debates about truth
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Concepts reside in long-term storage; thoughts affect specific imagery.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
The archetypal examples of “thoughts” (invented, specific, instantiated, non-recurrent) are the sentences mentally “spoken” and mentally…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
2007 |
Early-stage AIs will likely be less adept than humans at visualizing concepts only as far as needed, and so may need full visualizations where humans use abstract reasoning.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Thoughts are not evolved/programmed brainware, or a long-term reservoir of learned complexity; thoughts are constructed on a…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Mixed |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
2007 |
Smooth fitness landscapes are a necessary and fundamental outcome of evolution.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
there exist in us no instinctual brakes that are strong enough to limit the scope of such rivalry.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
We need not heed Brecht’s call for more inspectors and inquisitors.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Peter Thiel | Not checkable |
2007 |
In the debate between Strauss and Girard, perhaps the key issue of contention can be reduced to a question of time.
Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2007 |
were far ahead of them in spotting the appeal of this powerful idea.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Forming a complex concept requires an incremental path to that complex concept—a series of building-block concepts and precursor concepts…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
A concept is abstracted from experiences that exist as sensory patterns in one or more modalities.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
I emphasize that the exercise is not intended as evidence for a theory, but rather as a means of introducing and grounding concepts that…
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|
| Not checkable |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not checkable |
2007 |
Once abstracted, a concept can be compared to a new sensory experience to determine whether the new experience satisfies the concept
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007 |
|