Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

498 claims · page 2 of 5

498 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 20 Jan 2026 Kurzweil said he thinks that in 2026 there will be many things that remind people of AGI, but that people will not be convinced AGI has arrived in 2026. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 20 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he thinks the impact of AI on the job market will grow over the next five years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 By the 2040s, new innovations could virtually eliminate deaths from HIV/AIDS. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 If health funding for poor countries decreases by 20 percent, 12 million more children could die by 2045. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he believes that within the next decade the world will get back on track and enter a new era of unprecedented progress. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 It is very likely that AI chips will become cheap and abundant within five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 With hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars being invested, the unit cost of AI companies will drop sharply over the next decade. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Andreessen said he highly doubts that the product forms people use today (as of January 2026) will be the same in five or ten years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Most of the early humanoid robot companies will quietly shut down and disappear, as happened with self driving car companies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Lack of robotics progress will negatively affect the quality of life of newly elderly people for the next couple of decades. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Without new types of mechanical systems, walking humanoid robots will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the next ten years deployable robot dexterity may improve markedly, but not in the way the current humanoid robot hype suggests. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Boeing's Starliner will fly again, potentially twice in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will be many interesting demonstrations, but ten years is too short a period for a clear winner to emerge. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 No clear winner among new neural computation approaches beyond linear threshold systems will emerge by 2036, though there will be multiple candidates. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 It seems likely that Waymo has a good shot at getting operations running in five additional US cities (Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando) in 2026, which would double its total number of US cities to 10. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next ten years there will be a lot of activity developing guard rails around LLMs to make them useful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The trends do not look like EVs will reach 12% of US new car sales in 2027, even with a huge uptick. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks seriously doubts a human will land on Mars before 2040, and says the earliest Mars settlement will not happen before 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks says he is confident that he is right on his points (a) and (b) from his blog post, at least for the next ten years; the material does not say what (a) and (b) are. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Weekly suborbital paying-customer flights (Blue Origin) may become feasible by 2028 if customer demand exists. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks does not think any robot able to do the last 10 yards of delivery from the street will be deployed this decade, and perhaps not even demonstrated. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Human spaceflight will change from its stasis in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Putting humans on Mars will take much longer than putting a crewed colony on the Moon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Private space stations may lead to more humans flying on orbital flights than the current roughly 28 per year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The current hype does not mean that results over the next decade will pay back the massive investments going into AI and robotics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will likely be a jump in the number of Blue Origin suborbital flights in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2026 Brooks will talk explicitly about the two technologies he has put in his five prediction topics, one of them robots with humanoid form, for each of the next ten years. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Deployable robot dexterity will remain far worse than human hands beyond 2036. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The SpaceX Starship-based crewed Moon landing will not happen in 2027, and may never happen. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks is doubtful that a new quantum error-correction method will emerge, be fully tested and reach production at scale within the next ten years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Space station building will pick up markedly over the next few years in anticipation of the ISS's end. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next 10 years the winning quantum computers will be those solving real problems in materials science, chemistry and physics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin may make a soft landing on the Moon in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In 2026 humanoid domestic robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos with very little actual product. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Gary Marcus does not expect his 2026 predictions to be as on target as his 2025 predictions were. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 No country will take a decisive lead in the generative AI race in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic AI will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 (or 2027). Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Backlash to generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Nov 2025 In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Nov 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Nov 2025 The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Oct 2025 By 2035 the economy will be hugely deflationary. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within roughly 10 to 20 years, giant gigawatt-scale data centers will start being built in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within the next couple of decades, space-based data centers will be able to beat the cost of terrestrial data centers. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within the next couple of decades, millions of people will be living in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 Technology
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Promise 6 Oct 2025 Blue Origin is building a hydrogen-powered lunar lander that will land on the moon in a few years. Jeff Bezos · Promise · 6 Oct 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 26 Sep 2025 Within the next five years, the fusion of artificial intelligence and robotics (mechatronics) will be solved. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 26 Sep 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 26 Sep 2025 Over the next several decades the economy will grow, lots of new jobs will be created, every job will be changed and some jobs will be lost. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 26 Sep 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 15 Aug 2025 Robotics will be incredibly important in a couple of years. Sam Altman · Prediction · 15 Aug 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Asked about fully general-purpose models like the GPT series, Altman said he would say most people will agree that "that" happens at some point over the next two years, while noting that the definition of "significant" matters a lot. Sam Altman · Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Altman said he would bet that by late 2027 most people will agree there has been a significant AI-driven new discovery. Sam Altman · Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Altman said he thinks that by 2035 it will be possible to use AI tools to cure, or at least treat, a significant number of diseases that currently plague us. Sam Altman · Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 3 Aug 2025 By 2030 there will be an AI system that deeply understands everything around the user and is embedded in everyday life. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 3 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 3 Aug 2025 He said he thinks that maybe within the next five to ten years AI systems will be able not only to solve an important problem or conjecture in science but to come up with it in the first place. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 3 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 3 Aug 2025 AI could help end disease within the next decade or so. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 3 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 3 Aug 2025 Asked whether the field was on track for artificial general intelligence, Hassabis said he thinks it will come in the next five to ten years. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 3 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 3 Aug 2025 Hassabis thinks robotics will have a breakthrough moment in the next couple of years, with demonstrations of robots, maybe humanoid robots or other types, that can start really doing useful things. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 3 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 30 Jul 2025 Meta's next generation of models will push the frontier of AI in the next year or so. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 30 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Promise 30 Jul 2025 Meta's Prometheus cluster will come online in 2026, and Meta thinks it will be the world's first 1GW+ cluster. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 30 Jul 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Retrospectives written in 2043 will conclude there was an initial overemphasis on LLMs and a shift back to more structured systems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 He said we may be on the cusp, in the next five to ten years, of having AI systems that can truly create around a player's imagination and dynamically change the story. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 In maybe just a couple of years, today's AI interfaces, products and systems will look quite archaic. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 There is a 50% chance that AGI is achieved by 2030. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Over the next five to ten years, people who embrace AI technologies will become superhumanly productive in creative and technical industries. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Within the next five years we will probably have AI systems that can materially help with climate and energy problems. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Humanity could reach a Type I Kardashev civilization on roughly a hundred-year timescale. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Other global risks
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Within five years of mid-2025, AI will be able to do 80% of any economically valuable job humans can do. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 The 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than ever seen before. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 By 2040 the biggest risk we might face is China using AI, both cyber and warfare AI and socially good AI like free doctors for everyone, to embed its political philosophy. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 By 2040 the need for people to work will go away. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei said he believes that if the measures Anthropic has advocated are executed well, they would slow China's progress enough to widen America's lead significantly over the next 3-5 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei worries that within 6-12 months a swarm with greater capabilities but a similar level of misalignment to the one in the OAI-HF incident could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 AI could cure most major diseases within 5-10 years, greatly accelerate economic growth, and usher in a renaissance of democracy and freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 If Democrats win three of the four named Senate races plus the presidency, they would probably have a trifecta in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Before 2030, AI could do 80% of 80% of all non-labor (expertise) work. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Congress would ultimately need two-thirds majorities to stop the tariffs because Trump has threatened a veto, and Silver said he believed Trump would follow through on those threats. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Trump's tariffs could be rescinded at any time, if not now then after the 2026 midterms or after the 2028 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander suggested it might be useful to think of 'our timelines' as being like 2070 to 2100, with the last 50 to 70 years of that progress happening during 2027 to 2028 because of what he described as an intelligence explosion. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI-assisted research progress will start to pay off in 2027, the year the scenario is named after. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 AI will show slightly better coding in 2025, then slightly better agents and coding in 2026. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander guessed that the prediction market under discussion would resolve when AI agents are actually good, which he put at roughly late 2026 in their scenario. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 China's chip gap with the US will eventually close over roughly ten to twenty years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Amodei said the same exponential trends and arguments predict that, if progress continues for another two, three or maybe four years, AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Amodei said the AI industry as a whole probably needs maybe fifty gigawatts of additional energy by 2027 to fully power AI with the properties he had been describing. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 In the 2030s humans will merge with AI intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By 2045 human intelligence will be multiplied millions-fold for everybody. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Within five or six years, around 2029, there will be robots/humanlike helpers that can help people. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By the 2030s there will be something like residual income for people who need it, because "we" will be able to afford it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Around the 2045 intelligence multiplication, humanity will be able to get rid of lives of terrible poverty and lack of access to information. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 With AI-optimized designs and new compounds, solar power is on track to dominate within a decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By 2029, each year that passes will extend life expectancy by at least a year, and later by more than a year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 If the exponential trend he sees in renewable energy continues, renewable energy will be able to provide all of our energy needs within 10 years of March 2025. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
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Balaji Srinivasan

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Prediction AI policy and governance Political

“2028: blue and red against tech”

Balaji Srinivasan, writing on X 30 November 2025 Post by @balajis on X, 2025-11-30 (X)

In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech.” (said 30 November 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_7ef52977edc5, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7ef52977edc5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.