| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
But, it still ain’t right!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
But all of the above points fail to recognize the main problem: the system has become too big and complicated for even much-improved…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
now, that’s what I call a title!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
let’s favor technology companies, let’s not favor all this financial bulls—.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Too, the S&P 500 could have gone much lower – 500 or so would have been quite normal.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
the Justice Department, together with Congressional and other advisors, should be invited to develop a special set of rules for the banking…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
What we have at this crisis is a conjunction of what I’ve feared the most — namely, a very large deviation, very large exposure and very…
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Unresolvable |
Nassim Taleb | Prediction |
2009 |
Unless banks hold less risk and risks are borne by individuals with their own capital, financial cycles will keep getting deeper each time.
Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Recent practices have basically been a legalized way to abscond with the stockholders’ equity.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
It gave people the illusion of comfort.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
beneficial improvements, but in the long run they would be almost completely irrelevant and, worse, they might kid us into thinking we were…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Still, it would be very nice indeed to twist and turn a little more along the seven-year path in order to make more money and avoid losses.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
So the answer must be to subsidize more car purchases, and when the subsidies run out, you can have all the fun again.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
With no record of success in any important job, he gets one of the world’s two most important jobs!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
It is a conundrum: too many regulatory agencies and you have too many opportunities for financial interests to shop around for regulatory…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
And we can and should arrange it!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
their well-deserved ranking as the most short-sighted industry of the last 20 (40?) years, and one of the worst managed.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
But surely they should not have been insured against failure by us taxpayers!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Unresolvable |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
US housing quantities fell by 80% and home prices fell more than 25%, and prices were still falling at more than a 20% annualised rate in 2009.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
Because it was a Ponzi scheme, I don’t know any other way to call it.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
Roubini wrote about his concerns in summer 2006 and gave a speech to a few hundred International Monetary Fund staff in early September 2006.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The rest is window dressing and wishful thinking.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
How can we separate the logical neatness of institutional design from our recent proven inability to pick effective, principled leaders…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
We have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to effect genuine change given that the general public is disgusted with the financial system and…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Yes, I admit this is part envy and part hindsight investment regret.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
There is a domain in which we can measure the unknown, provided the large deviation doesn’t play a big role.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
actually could not keep up with the complexity of the financial products that are involved.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The 1960s were probably the high water mark (or one of them) of America’s capitalism.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Given White Star Line’s unwillingness to spend, she was under-designed.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The Titanic, for example, was just too big and therefore too complicated for the affordable technology of its day.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Congress also failed in its role.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Unresolvable |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2009 |
Bankers kept their bonuses in each past banking crisis while taxpayers bailed the banks out.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
We were simply too slow to get the message that the combined stimulus package was so heavily weighted toward stimulating risk-taking and…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2009 |
The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
we are bound and determined to bend once again to the will (and the money) of the financial lobby, which is encouraged by the unexpected…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The separation of commercial banking from investment banking is not as vital as the removal of prop desk conflicts
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
banking creates nothing of itself. It merely facilitates the functioning of the real world.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
This means that they extracted every penny of $9 billion from a fragile financial system.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The financial world was reaching into the GDP pie and taking an unnecessary extra 4%.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
So maybe there’s hope for a second time.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
I have no idea why the current administration, which came in on a promise of change, for heaven’s sake, is so determined to protect the…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
We all want smaller, simpler banks that are not too big to fail.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Such a situation is bound to end badly.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Unresolvable |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2009 |
Taleb offers a protection package to clients and it works.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The recent boom and the ensuing crisis are a wonderfully scientific experiment with definitive results that we are all trying to ignore.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
In other words it tells you how uncomfortable the plane ride is going to be, but tells you nothing about the crash.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
So we should have more risks taken by funds and less risk taken by banks, because banks have a severe agency problem.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
After a crisis, if you don’t want to waste time on palliatives, you must begin with an open and frank admission of failure.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
I think the first 15 percentage points over fair value would satisfy me.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The only long-term hope of avoiding major recurrent crises is to make our financial system simpler, the units small enough that they can be…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Crises are desperately hard to avoid.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
The system used to analyze risk is completely defective,
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
We’re talking about someone who goes into the jungle without a map. He’s going to get lost.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
is pure short-term silliness.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis are as dead as dodos
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
And if the market moves an extra 5% you lose an extra $10 or $15 billion.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
|
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
The Fed's philosophy was to not act against asset bubbles on the way up, as hard to identify and dangerous to prick, but to ease aggressively after they burst.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Prop trading can easily introduce an aggressive hedge-fund type mentality into the very hearts of what ideally should be conservative…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nouriel Roubini | Not checkable |
2009 |
So it was clear that that was the tipping point for this housing bubble.
Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
At the least we must recognize the improbability of acquiring great leaders and that our financial system must be simple and robust enough…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
In effect, the prudent are subsidizing the very same banks that insisted on dancing off the cliff into Uncle Sam’s arms
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
We believed from the start that this market rally and any outperformance of risk would have very little to do with any dividend discount…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
I described the way it happened, I described the mistakes, and I see all these people explaining it backwards.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
No captain is ever rewarded for merely delivering his passengers alive.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
What happens is that the number psychologically makes you feel confident. It’s kind of like a seatbelt on a plane. It doesn’t do anything.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Given my thesis of a world in denial, though, I must say it’s a delicious irony.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Rewarding Bernanke is like reappointing the Titanic’s captain for facilitating an orderly disembarkation of the sinking ship
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nouriel Roubini | Not checkable |
2009 |
So there is worries that now we’re going to create another bubble after having been a serial bubble blower for twenty years now.
Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
It is obvious to most that there was a more or less complete failure of our private financial system and its public overseers.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
|
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
After the 1987 stock market crash the Fed eased aggressively, giving the impression it would rescue markets, leading to talk of a 'Greenspan put'.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
How can Greenspan, with his long-established record of failure as a professional economist, have resurfaced as the Fed boss?
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
In 2006 people were sceptical of Roubini's predictions, talking instead of high growth, a Goldilocks economy and a gently deflating minor housing bubble.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
Banks are gambling with society’s money, funds are gambling with investors’ money — it’s one layer better.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
a lot of portfolios are based on these underestimations of wild uncertainty.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Please read John Kay in the Financial Times of July 9. It is short and persuasive.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
the Titanic I tragedy was a black swan event: utterly unpredictable and completely, emphatically, not caused by any failures of the ship’s…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
This is not a good idea unless you derive enormous personal utility from a display of discipline, perhaps better viewed as inflexibility in…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
|
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
2009 |
By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Clearly, this was a budgeting problem rather than an investment performance problem.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nouriel Roubini | Not checkable |
2009 |
once a bubble goes into reverse and demand falls below supply, then prices start to move downward and then there is the unravelling of a…
Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Value, it must be admitted, is seldom a powerful force in the short term.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
I believe finance is largely a scam, and I don’t want to be associated with that profession.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
|
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2009 |
Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
2009 |
I don’t read the papers, I stopped reading the papers.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
My theory is that the market always displayed a belief in a type of primitive market efficiency decades before the academics took it up.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
The public leadership was inadequate, especially in dealing with unexpected events that often, like the housing bubble breaking, should…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
by working to mitigate the pain of the next catastrophe, we allow ourselves to downplay the real causes of the disaster and thereby invite…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
We must give ourselves a chance by making the job of dealing with them much, much easier.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Now he finally gets it. Too late!
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
2009 |
Now we have to decide how much more decision-making power to give to the Fed – an institution with a 25-year proven record of failure.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · 2009 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
In a normal ecology, banks go bankrupt every day.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
The banking system doesn’t have that slack.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
Every bank becomes the same bank so they can all go bust together.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
Complex systems don’t allow for slack and everybody protects that system.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
But in a complex system there is a tendency to cluster around powerful units.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Nassim Taleb | Not checkable |
29 Oct 2008 |
You find peace by coming to terms with what you don’t know.
Nassim Taleb · Not checkable · 29 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Vinod Khosla | Not checkable |
21 Oct 2008 |
So absolutely, we should have signed up at Kyoto.
Vinod Khosla · Not checkable · 21 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Vinod Khosla | Not checkable |
21 Oct 2008 |
The technology to replace the internal combustion engine is hard.
Vinod Khosla · Not checkable · 21 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Vinod Khosla | Not checkable |
21 Oct 2008 |
I don't know today whether ethanol or butanol or cellulosic diesel or cellulosic gasoline will be better.
Vinod Khosla · Not checkable · 21 Oct 2008 |
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| Not checkable |
Vinod Khosla | Not checkable |
21 Oct 2008 |
Going after the technologies that do 5 percent or 10 percent or even 20 percent I believe is the wrong approach.
Vinod Khosla · Not checkable · 21 Oct 2008 |
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