Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 6 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable Oct 2026 It's going to happen soon. My estimate keeps moving closer to the present, Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · Oct 2026
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Other global risks
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 It's less good than a golf cart. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not researched GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 Using 2024 under-5 mortality rates of 40.8 for low- and middle-income countries and 5.1 for high-income countries, matching the high-income rate would avert 87.5% of child deaths in low- and middle-income countries. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Not researched GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell has tested AI as a tool to increase its research capacity and quality. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Marlowe's 16th-century Faust story, Faust is a fake scientist. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 There's always a question I like to ask: What is the antonym of good? Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 And if you're evil, you're not bad. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 The moral question of our society, we have all these good vs. evil debates, and we're just full of badness. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 A Trabbi is a bad car. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable GiveWell Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 That increased capacity lets us explore more areas and move more funding to programs we believe could do extraordinary good. GiveWell · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Marlowe's Faust, Faust is a magician or fake alchemist practising bad science and goes straight to hell. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 The three Senior Communications Officer roles will be the first of their kind at GiveWell. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Field building and careers
Not researched GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell has already directed over $600 million in 2026 to help people in need. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 And therefore, maybe you're actually kind of good because you're at least getting something done. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 And so, if you're evil, you're at least competent. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, Faust makes a pact with the devil and, in Thiel's words, "sort of" gains knowledge by morally dubious means. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Own records only GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 The UNFPA Supplies Partnership grant is GiveWell's first grant through a pooled fund. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 And the moral antonym is evil. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 Most of the time, things are not even evil, they're not even good. They're just merely bad. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 A Ferrari is an evil car because it doesn't get many miles per gallon. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not researched GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 In 2025, GiveWell raised $616 million and directed $427 million to programs in 32 countries. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable GiveWell Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 Despite the growth of our grantmaking, the needs and opportunities before us continue to far exceed available resources. GiveWell · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's Cross-Cutting research subteam investigates the impact of funded programs, works to resolve the largest uncertainties, and strengthens data collection and analysis. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable GiveWell Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 Our grantmaking aims to support programs that save or improve lives the most per dollar. GiveWell · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 30 Sep 2026 More than four million children under five die each year in low- and middle-income countries, and most of those deaths are preventable. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 The functional antonym is bad. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 So you're in a world where 99% of the businesses, companies, people, political leaders, business leaders are totally incompetent, that's… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 I'm going to get in trouble for what I'm about to say, but I think we moralize way too much. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not researched GiveWell Citation 30 Sep 2026 The United Nations estimates that 165 million women aged 15 to 49 worldwide have an unmet need for family planning. GiveWell · Citation · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 I think it's better to be good than evil, I want to be very clear, but I prefer Goethe's "Faust" to Marlowe's "Faust." Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, things work out more for the best and Faust is redeemed. Peter Thiel · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 Let’s agree that the provenance of an idea has little bearing on its validity: whether or not doomers are weird, they could be right. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 These debates are a spectator sport, not an epistemic tool. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off an arms race with the Soviets rather than disarmament. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 When I said that the doomer scenarios projected alpha-male psychology onto AIs, this was not an ad hominem insinuation that the proponents… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker's 2018 book Enlightenment Now contains a 31-page chapter titled "Existential Risk," which is his principal contribution to mass discourse on existential risk. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I stand by my claim that most of the doomer scenarios are preposterous (beginning with the AI paperclip maximiser that consumes our bodies… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 But as rationalists we should agree that attacking an idea should not be confused with attacking a person. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 So let me begin by apologising for any inadvertent offence and by emphasising that my admiration for you is immense. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 Obviously I believe in defending ideas in the face of criticism. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 It was an analysis which proposed that they were applying an inappropriate alpha-male theory of mind (an intuitive psychology) to AI. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I think your brilliance is enviable and your integrity inspiring. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Steven Pinker has never criticised or publicly disagreed with Scott Alexander, nor called him names like "paranoid" or "weird moron." Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 We agree on almost everything, including your commitment to rationality and effective altruism (at least in their original, lower-case… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 Nonetheless, I stand by them as substantive arguments against the radical claim (I trust you’ll agree that it is radical) that within a… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker tweeted a New York Times article in which Cal Newport traced the history of AI doomerism to a Berkeley Rationalist subculture he called "weirder than we realize." Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I’m just sceptical of the prophecy that AI will murder every last human and of the assumption that sowing such dread is the most effective… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 And telling young people they will soon perish en masse has costs in their appreciation of the institutions of modernity, their mental… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker's arguments on AI risk were laid out five years before the release of LLM chatbots. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Steven Pinker has taken part in only one formal public debate, alongside Matt Ridley against Malcolm Gladwell and Alain de Botton. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I choose to delope: to fire my pistol into the ground to pre-empt the conflict. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I boosted the article because it addresses legitimate questions. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker argued in Enlightenment Now that self-preservation and dominance motives come bundled with intelligence in humans due to natural selection but are not inherent to engineered intelligent systems. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 It’s consistent with my argument in Enlightenment Now that prophecies of doom are not effective responses to genuine risks but have… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 But the AI X-Risk community itself is facetious about what they insist will be a massacre of humanity (the paperclip memes, the jocular… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker said he had argued that any intelligent system is a mechanism good at solving some problems but not others, and that it is inherently limited by knowledge about the world attainable only through observation and experimentation. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 The dangers of AI are real, including bioterrorism, cyber-sabotage, and unconstrained agents. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 these are not aspersions on living people, but on the hypothetical protagonists of the exotic scenarios. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Frontier AI companies, led by alumni of the X-risk community, have released LLMs in a breakneck and sometimes irresponsible way that Pinker did not anticipate. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 The capabilities of LLMs trained on huge datasets are more general than Pinker and almost everyone else would have guessed at the time he laid out his arguments, five years before LLM chatbots were released. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 And the adjectives were not gratuitous insults but juxtaposed as antonyms to the “intelligence” in “artificial intelligence.” Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I’m strongly in favour of sober safety evaluations and engineering best practices: independent oversight, mandatory investigations of… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker argued in Enlightenment Now that trading off multiple competing goals is the essence of intelligence, so no genuine AI would cause the havoc imagined in doomer scenarios. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 26 Sep 2026 I confess that my tone can be irreverent and my prose purplish, which you suggest is incommensurate with the gravity of the topic. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 26 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 26 Sep 2026 Pinker's counterargument to the criticism that the Enlightenment and the ideal of progress would lead to human extinction, for example through runaway AI, said nothing about maleness, polyamory, paranoia or similar irrelevancies. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 They may say the idea is crazy, yet secretly agree with me. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 In Thiel's assessment, Europe is extremely far behind in AI, although he said the situation is still fluid. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's report indicates there were dozens of incidents. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 In Thiel's assessment, Europe is even further behind in AI in 2026 than it was with Minitel. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 Huang is making a fool of himself, by telling the world we can trust the companies, when each passing hour makes it clearer that we can’t. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel expects that, without progress, extreme parties on the right and left will keep gaining ground. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel put the chance of a democratic socialist winning the 2028 election at perhaps 50 percent. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 There is vast and growing evidence that OpenAI is building something it is not managing to control. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 The alternative is also far from neutral. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's stagnation thesis held that technological progress has slowed since the 1970s. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 I do not know how to assign a probability to a system much smarter than any human escaping control. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 AI may turn out to be bigger than the internet in its economic impact. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 Trump has done nothing public to sanction or investigate OpenAI despite its attacks on foreign governments, companies and universities. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's 2009 article did not argue that people would lose their votes or that democracy would disappear. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 I do not want one led by democratic socialists. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 I do think there is a trend against democracy, and liberal societies are in some trouble. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's board has done nothing constructive to address the company's security problems. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 It’s time (past time, really) to (temporarily) shut down OpenAI. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Sep 2026 If the OpenAI situation gets worse, Trump will own the mess. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 Much of this is what we are doing to ourselves in the West. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 If I had to single out one problem, it would be dementia: finding a way to slow or reverse the decline in people's brains. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 But even a 5 or 10 percent probability would be pretty bad, and that understandably pushes people toward precaution. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Friedrich Merz may remain in office because others do not think they can do better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Western countries have large welfare states, taxes that already feel high and substantial deficits. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual 25 Sep 2026 A RiskReversal-hosted podcast features Gary Marcus and investor Jim Chanos discussing how generative AI might fall apart. Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 25 Sep 2026 I strongly reject the suggestion of moral equivalence between the United States and China. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2026
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Steven Pinker

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“And telling young people they will soon perish en masse has costs in their appreciation of the institutions of modernity, their mental health, their confidence to invest in themselves and their society, and their willingness to have children (itself a risk of extinction).”

Steven Pinker 26 September 2026 Steven Pinker Replies to Scott Alexander on AI (Quillette)

And telling young people they will soon perish en masse has costs in their appreciation of the institutions of modernity, their mental…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “And telling young people they will soon perish en masse has costs in their appreciation of the institutions of modernity, their mental…” (said 26 September 2026). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_7c08fefedf06, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7c08fefedf06

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.