Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	All that vast potential hinges on our survival here, now, in the days when the realm of humankind is a single planet orbiting a single star. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	EP is a powerful, still maturing technique that is intrinsically unsuited to the demands of Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	An optimization process steers the future into particular regions of the possible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But if people are liable to confidently believe that the button does something quite diﬀerent from its actual consequence, that is cause… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I don’t think this exact scenario is plausible, mostly because I don’t expect the curve of recursive self-improvement to move at a linear… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	There is a taboo against talking about humanlevel capabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Nature does not match her challenges to your skill, or your resources, or how much free time you have to think about the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Storytellers obey strict rules of narrative unrelated to reality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Any technology which increases available computing power decreases the minimum theoretical sophistication necessary to develop Artificial… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Of all possible configurations for the atoms making up the Corolla, only an infinitesimal fraction qualify as a useful working car. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Citation	2008	Latane and Darley's 1969 experiments found the bystander effect: larger groups are less likely to act in emergencies, individually and collectively. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Yet for a futurist, disjunctions make for an awkward and unpoetic-sounding prophecy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The danger of confusing general intelligence with g-factor is that it leads to tremendously underestimating the potential impact of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	When technology first becomes capable of uploading, it will have overwhelmingly more computing power and probably far better cognitive science than building an AI requires. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The subjects in these experiments don't make mistakes on purpose; they make mistakes because they don't know how to do better. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	To build an AI that discovers the orbits of the planets, the programmers need not know the math of Newtonian mechanics, only the math of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The above methodology for expert elicitation looks perfectly reasonable Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	This may have been one contributing factor to the embarrassing history of AI, which stems not from the diﬃculty of AI as such, but from the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The scenario of humanity going extinct in the next century is a disjunctive event. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Since the given description of Linda was chosen to be similar to a feminist and dissimilar to a bank teller, (8) is more representative of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Discussions of existential risk not uncommonly draw their categories, choices, consequences and strategies from movies, books and television shows. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Other global risks
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Later research has generalized and elaborated the phenomena in the Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky volume, and its basic results still stand. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Extreme confidence in wrong answers is common in the heuristics and biases literature, where it is known as overconfidence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	g-factor metaphors seem most common in popular futurism: when people think of “intelligence” they think of human geniuses instead of humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The second threat scenario is less vivid and alarming, but the defense is more useful because it is more vague. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mostly true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	As of 2008 there is no shield that can deflect a nuclear explosion. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Other global risks
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Natural selection isn’t friendly, nor does it hate you, nor will it leave you alone. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Often Nature poses requirements that are grossly unfair, even on tests where the penalty for failure is death. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky said he feared regulatory agencies would not approve human experiments, in the context of augmenting human intelligence through biology. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI policy and governance
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But human beings are not trustworthy to peer over a purported proof of ten billion steps; we have too high a chance of missing an error. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Taking Piracetam or drinking caffeine will not make a person substantially smarter than Einstein. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Citation	2008	By the halting problem (Rice 1953), it is impossible to predict whether an arbitrary computational system implements any given input-output function, including simple multiplication. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	We must execute the creation of Artificial Intelligence as the exact application of an exact art. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	People may be overconfident and over-optimistic. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Awareness of human fallibility is a dangerous knowledge, if you remind yourself of the fallibility of those who disagree with you. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The first moral is that confusing the speed of AI research with the speed of a real AI once built is like confusing the speed of physics… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A majoritarian strategy only works if it is not possible for a single defector to cause global catastrophic damage. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	And when you run into a lethal challenge too diﬃcult for you, you die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Every true idea which discomforts you will seem to match the pattern of at least one psychological error. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The main advice the metaphor gives us is that we had better get Friendly AI right, which is good advice in any case. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But in forecasting, every added detail is an extra burden! Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	A superintelligent AI whose goal system operates in an unforeseen fashion may actively resist human attempts to correct it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	It seems that people do not extrapolate from experienced small hazards to the possibility of large risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	The obvious experimental manipulations of heuristics-and-biases studies have already been tried, and the results were found to be robust. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Citation	2008	In the Buehler et al. study, students took on average 55 days to complete their thesis, 22 days longer than anticipated and 7 days longer than their worst-case predictions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The elapsed turnaround time would be, imaginably, on the order of a week from when the fast intelligence first became able to solve the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Familiarity with heuristics and biases can enable us to detect a wide variety of logical flaws that might otherwise evade our inspection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A majoritarian strategy is sometimes workable, if you have decades in which to do your work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	The two Gilovich, Griffin and Kahneman edited volumes overview the heuristics and biases field in its current form. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	As logic, the above argument contains holes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Few people would push a button that they clearly knew would cause a global catastrophe. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I introduce the concept of an optimization process Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Yudkowsky wrote that, to the best of his ability to discern, there were no existing major works on the topic to cite as of January 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	AI safety and alignment
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Because of hindsight bias, we learn overly specific lessons. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mostly true	Michael Burry	Prediction	2008	Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	We would expect a true AI, an Artificial General Intelligence, to be capable of changing its empirical beliefs Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	And the stakes of existential risk extend beyond even the six billion humans alive today, to all the stars in all the galaxies that… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But if they had said might, I would have no objection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The raw materials for AI are already everywhere. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Resolved true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI compute, hardware and data
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If the AI tribe wins in military conflict and wipes out the humans, that is an existential catastrophe of the Bang variety Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2008	The Scion Funds are roughly one-fifth cash, held largely in foreign currencies. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I do not assign strong confidence to the assertion that Friendly AI is easier than human augmentation, or that it is safer. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Building dams reduces flood frequency but damage per flood becomes so much greater that average yearly damage increases. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It only takes a single counterexample to falsify a universal quantifier. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	It would be physically possible to build a brain computing a million times faster than a human brain without shrinking it, cooling it, or using reversible or quantum computing. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	They are somewhat less accessible to a general audience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Otherwise you become slower to react to incoming evidence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But one should not so quickly write off the challenge, especially considering the stakes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Intelligence is the foundation of human power, the strength that fuels our other arts. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	When we talk about “AIs” we are really talking about minds-in-general, or optimization processes in general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A dead planet, lifelessly orbiting its star, is also stable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But the stakes are much, much higher. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Absolute power is a conservative engineering assumption in Friendly AI, exposing broken designs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I cannot see how nanotechnology would make it easier to develop Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	There is no way to obtain more truth for a proposition by bribery, flattery, or the most passionate argument - you can make more people… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Friendly AI is not about brute-forcing the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Any two AI designs might be less similar to one another than you are to a petunia. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The AI might transcend the factual error of its programmers, provided that the programmers understood inference rather better than they… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A technical failure occurs when the code does not do what you think it does, though it faithfully executes as you programmed it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Overconfidence applies strongly to planning, where it is known as the planning fallacy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Spearman's g is a statistical abstraction from individual differences in intelligence among humans, a species far more intelligent than lizards. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky said he thinks it will prove easier, in the end, to build a 747 from scratch than to scale up an existing bird or graft on jet engines, an analogy he used for building Artificial Intelligence rather than taking another road into the challenge of smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only	Michael Burry	Prediction	2008	Burry said that, with only three such contracts remaining in force, he did not expect further meaningful impact on the Funds' portfolios from this sort of trade. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	With molecular nanotechnology, an AI could potentially rewrite the solar system unopposed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	Other global risks
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	To live even a million years, as an unaging human in a world as risky as our own, you must somehow drive your annual probability of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Someone should know that when an expert says the probability is "a million to one" without using actuarial data or calculations from a… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The first AI built cannot by itself do catastrophic damage. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	When he first began thinking about these matters, Yudkowsky expected the largest benefits from Artificial Intelligence yet felt no anxiety about it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It once occurred to me that modern civilization occupies an unstable state. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Heuristics and biases are widespread in human reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Friendly AI programmers should assume that the AI has total access to its own source code. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only	Michael Burry	Promise	2008	Scion Capital is closing its dedicated Asian investment funds and returning capital to investors in those funds. Michael Burry · Promise · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Do-What-I-Mean is a major, nontrivial technical challenge of Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	AIs will swiftly invent the kind of capabilities that cliche would attribute to human civilization a century or millennium from now Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	They may conflate positive information about the benefits of a technology as negative information about its risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	This is the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle, the way to close the window of vulnerability; it is also probably the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008

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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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Not checkable

“But in forecasting, every added detail is an extra burden!”

Eliezer Yudkowsky 2008 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks (UC Berkeley (hosted))

But in forecasting, every added detail is an extra burden!

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “But in forecasting, every added detail is an extra burden!” (said 2008). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_77c030c1214e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_77c030c1214e

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.