Claims

Factual · Their own work or organisation

““We're very far along on our next-generation low-cost vehicle,” Musk said in the fourth quarter earnings call in January.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, on Q4 earnings call · January 2024 · Elon Musk Touts Tesla Master Plan: Model 2 Takes Back Seat To Autonomy (Forbes)

Tesla is very far along on its next-generation low-cost vehicle, as of the January 2024 earnings call.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Factual claim as of January 2024 that Tesla was 'very far along' on its next-generation low-cost vehicle. Judge on the state of development at the time, using contemporaneous or later-revealed evidence of that state. True: evidence shows advanced development in January 2024 (a design largely finished, production tooling or lines being planned or underway, a launch timeline of roughly 2025). Mostly true: substantial progress, though some key elements were less mature than implied. Mixed: development was underway, but mid-stage. Mostly false: the evidence shows early-stage work, or that the program was being deprioritized or cancelled around then (e.g. the April 2024 Reuters report on shelving a dedicated $25k car), so the claim overstated progress. False: there was no real development program then.

Evidence

1. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call Transcript - January 24, 2024 roic.ai · 24 January 2024 Own record

   “But our current schedule shows that we will start production towards the end of 2025. So sometime in the second half.”

2. Tesla's next-generation platform could mean 'notably' lower growth rate in 2024 Teslarati · 24 January 2024

   “Reports today indicated Tesla is already in the process of preparing for the production of its next-generation vehicle. Reuters said that Tesla is already reaching out to suppliers to begin production of the next-gen vehicle in mid-2025.”

3. Report: $25,000 Tesla Model 2 project nixed in favor of robotaxis Green Car Reports · 5 April 2024

   “According to a report Friday morning from Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the matter, the company has ceased plans to build a $25,000 Tesla that would slot below the Model 3 and Model Y in the lineup.”

Reasoning

E3, an independent report from January 24, 2024 citing Reuters, says Tesla was already contacting suppliers to begin producing the next-generation vehicle in mid-2025. That fits advanced development. On the same day, Tesla's own earnings call (E2) put the start of production in the second half of 2025. However, E4 reports that in April 2024, according to Reuters, Tesla dropped its plans for the $25,000 car. The resolution criteria name this as a sign that the program was being deprioritized around that time and that the claim overstated progress. Because the evidence points both ways and does not show how mature the design was, the claim is rated mixed.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla is very far along on its next-generation low-cost vehicle, as of the January 2024 earnings call.” (said January 2024). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_7247cd9f65f9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7247cd9f65f9