Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 29 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 22 Jun 2023 A Waymo commercial was being filmed across the street from a pickup location in San Francisco in June 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 22 Jun 2023 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 22 Jun 2023 The San Francisco fire chief is unhappy with driverless vehicles in the city. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 22 Jun 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 21 Jun 2023 Humanity will survive large language models. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 21 Jun 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 20 Jun 2023 Objective-Driven AI architectures are the future of AI. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 20 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 19 Jun 2023 A joint interview of Yoshua Bengio and Yann LeCun was published in Les Échos Weekend a few days before 2023-06-19. Yann LeCun · Factual · 19 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 The Transformer algorithm was invented in 2017. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, AI breakthroughs were happening essentially every week. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 GPT-4 has far superior crystallized intelligence to any human. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Freedom-oriented regimes will generally want to make the US bet on AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Authoritarian-oriented regimes will be tempted to take the Chinese path on AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 People of higher intelligence are less violent and more capable of solving problems. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Many countries around the world will have to make a fundamental choice between US and Chinese AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 Research establishes that in human affairs, higher intelligence leads to better outcomes in essentially every measurable aspect of human welfare and life quality. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Which AI bet (US or China) a country takes will help tilt its political system in the future, as AI shapes its politics and culture. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 There may be decades of architectural breakthroughs still ahead in AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he would estimate GPT-4's human-equivalent IQ, which he described as fluid intelligence, at roughly 130 to 135. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 Outside the San Francisco Bay Area, AI development is overwhelmingly in Beijing and Shanghai. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Countries like Israel will have their own AI capabilities, but much of what they have will be derived from the United States. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 The AI being discussed is not, strictly speaking, human intelligence. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 8 Jun 2023 Brooks called Isambard Kingdom Brunel (1806-59) the world's greatest engineer, crediting him with the "longest/most beautiful bridges", the first iron-hulled screw ships, and England's tunnels and railways. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 8 Jun 2023 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 7 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the balajis.com community chat is free to join. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 7 Jun 2023 Balaji Srinivasan is consolidating his content into one free newsletter at balajis.com. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted has committed to reusing or recycling all wind turbine blades and solar panels from its global portfolio with immediate effect, and to commissioning only projects with a net-positive biodiversity impact from 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 7 Jun 2023 Rodney Brooks has taken many fully driverless Cruise rides at night in San Francisco. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted's long-standing supplier relationships will ensure it capacity at competitive prices. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 7 Jun 2023 Balaji Srinivasan has created tweets, talks, podcasts, courses, articles and The Network State book. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous EBITDA and ROCE targets for 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted reaffirms its target of about 50 GW of renewable capacity in 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted currently operates 15.5 GW of renewable energy assets, with 4.9 GW under construction. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous average ROCE target of 11-12% for 2020-2027, now expecting about 15% over 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted's gross investment for 2020-2027, previously expected at about DKK 350 billion, is trending higher at DKK 380 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is recognised on the CDP Climate Change A List as a global leader on climate action. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 7 Jun 2023 There is a community chat associated with the newsletter at balajis.com/chat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 7 Jun 2023 Balaji Srinivasan's newsletter audience has more than 100,000 subscribers. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted now expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2020-2027, versus the previous target of about 12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Promise 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted will target an unlevered, fully loaded lifecycle IRR at a 150-300 basis point spread to WACC at the time of bid or FID, whichever comes first, while investing a majority of CAPEX in offshore. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Promise 7 Jun 2023 All content on the balajis.com newsletter will be free in perpetuity. Balaji Srinivasan · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 7 Jun 2023 On Cruise rides in San Francisco, the car made left turns at speed with traffic that had close calls with parked cars. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Technology
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to reach its science-based targets of 98% carbon emissions reductions (scopes 1 and 2) in 2025 and net-zero for the full value chain in 2040. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted was the first energy company in the world to have its science-based net-zero emissions target validated by the Science Based Targets initiative. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 6 Jun 2023 Artificial intelligence will not destroy the world, and may instead save it. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 6 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 Contrastive methods for training energy-based models work for any architecture but scale badly with data dimension. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 Masked autoencoders are less successful with images and other continuous domains than with discrete domains such as language. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction Jun 2023 H-JEPA trained with regularized methods may be a starting point for predictive world models capable of hierarchical planning under uncertainty, a breakthrough for autonomous AI. Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction Jun 2023 Self-supervised learning is the most likely approach to learning world representations, since supervised and reinforcement learning require too many samples or trials. Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction Jun 2023 Regularized methods seem more promising than contrastive methods for training future energy-based models, because they are less likely to fall victim to the curse of dimensionality. Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 Ideas related to VICReg-style regularization were explored already in 1992, per reference [62]. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 Probabilistic models require normalization and may become intractable for high-dimensional data. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 LeCun's proposed AI architecture consists of multiple interconnected modules. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction Jun 2023 Contrastive methods are unlikely to lead to future autonomous intelligence because of their unfavorable scaling with data dimension. Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 With probabilistic models, training is confined to loss functions derived from the negative log-likelihood, such as cross entropy. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual Jun 2023 All modules of the proposed architecture are fully differentiable. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction Jun 2023 Probabilistic models may also fail on the path to autonomous intelligence. Yann LeCun · Prediction · Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 28 May 2023 Brooks said that it did not annoy any human drivers. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 28 May 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 24 May 2023 An extralegal confiscation of private property will take place to remit stolen funds to a cash-hungry federal government, with tech giants described as a "systemic risk" to the crypto industry. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jim Cramer Prediction 24 May 2023 US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 24 May 2023 Brooks described hundreds of driverless cars with no humans inside as driving around San Francisco 'aimlessly' 24 hours a day. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 24 May 2023 Technology
Resolved false Jim Cramer Prediction 24 May 2023 If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 24 May 2023 In 2011 the US reached a debt ceiling deal, but the standoff led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the US government's credit rating. Jim Cramer · Factual · 24 May 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 19 May 2023 Jeff Bezos is part of a joint effort with NASA to land astronauts on the Moon. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 19 May 2023 Other
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 May 2023 Parties that agree to a pause in AI research more powerful than GPT-4 may fall far behind corporations or nations that do not. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 May 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 5 May 2023 Kurzweil did not sign the open letter calling for a pause on AI more powerful than GPT-4. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 5 May 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Promise 20 Apr 2023 Google DeepMind is creating a new Scientific Board, led by Koray Kavukcuoglu with representatives from across the orgs, to oversee research progress and direction. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 20 Apr 2023 In the coming years AI, and ultimately AGI, has the potential to drive one of the greatest social, economic and scientific transformations in history. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 Zoubin Ghahramani will join the Google DeepMind research leadership team reporting to Koray Kavukcuoglu. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Demis Hassabis Promise 20 Apr 2023 Jeff, Koray, Zoubin, Shane and Demis Hassabis will finalise the composition of the new Google DeepMind Scientific Board in the coming days. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 Google DeepMind brings together DeepMind and Brain AI talent with Google's computing power, infrastructure and resources. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 20 Apr 2023 The work of the combined Google DeepMind unit will create the next wave of world-changing breakthroughs. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 On 20 April 2023 Sundar Pichai announced that DeepMind and Google Research's Brain team would join as a single unit called Google DeepMind. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 20 Apr 2023 Combining DeepMind and Brain will accelerate progress towards a world where AI helps solve humanity's biggest challenges. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 20 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 Eli Collins will join Demis Hassabis's leads team at Google DeepMind as VP of Product. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Field building and careers
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 When DeepMind launched in 2010, many people thought general AI was farfetched science fiction decades away. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 Research advances from the Brain and DeepMind teams, from Deep Reinforcement Learning to Transformers, laid much of the foundations of the current AI industry. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Demis Hassabis Factual 20 Apr 2023 Sundar Pichai, Jeff Dean, James Manyika and Demis Hassabis coordinated their efforts over recent months and built a partnership. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 18 Apr 2023 Yejin Choi gave a "common sense" rebuttal on the TED stage in April 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 18 Apr 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky says that he and many other researchers expect the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI under anything remotely like current circumstances is that literally everyone on Earth will die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 The likely result of humanity facing an opposed superhuman intelligence is a total loss for humanity. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 The gap between how seriously AI risk is taken and how seriously it needed to be taken will not be bridged in six months. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 7 Apr 2023 OpenAI has openly declared an intention to have some future AI do our AI alignment work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 7 Apr 2023 Today one can email DNA strings to laboratories that will produce proteins on demand. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 A sufficiently intelligent AI will not stay confined to computers for long. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 Solving safety of superhuman intelligence, in the sense of not killing everyone, could take at least about 30 years (half of the 60+ years AI took to reach today's capabilities). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly false Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 7 Apr 2023 DeepMind, a leading AI lab, has no plan for AI alignment/safety. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 7 Apr 2023 Without precision and preparation, the most likely outcome of building superhuman AI is an AI that does not do what we want and does not care for us or sentient life. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 7 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 7 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky said he did not sign the open letter because he thinks it understates the seriousness of the situation and asks for too little to solve it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 AI will not reach a distinct human level; it will be somewhere around human but not like a human. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky said he thinks that at some point, once a system knows itself especially well and is able to rewrite itself, it crystallizes, unless one specifically chooses not to. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 6 Apr 2023 No one in government has reached out to Eliezer Yudkowsky in a way suggesting they have the broad contours of the AI risk problem right. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Yudkowsky said he is pretty sure that AI systems that are smart enough will no longer need giant training runs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 6 Apr 2023 The LessWrong sequences were written primarily as an instruction manual for potential young people like Yudkowsky. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 Field building and careers
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 6 Apr 2023 GPT-4 got further than Eliezer Yudkowsky had expected simply stacking more layers would get. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 6 Apr 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky has consistently refused for many years to publish AI timelines with detailed probabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 Their own work or organisation
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

Open its page

Prediction AI safety and alignment

“A sufficiently intelligent AI won’t stay confined to computers for long.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, MIRI researcher, op-ed author 7 April 2023 Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down (MIRI (TIME op-ed))

A sufficiently intelligent AI will not stay confined to computers for long.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Prediction about a hypothetical sufficiently intelligent AI with no horizon and vague 'long'.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “A sufficiently intelligent AI will not stay confined to computers for long.” (said 7 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6fd48060298c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6fd48060298c

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.