25 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 27 Oct 2026 | Daniela Amodei said the decision to keep ads out of Claude was an immovable baseline established from day one. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 27 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | As of January 2026, Tesla operates cars in Austin with no one inside, no safety monitor and no follow car. Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Jeff Bezos | Promise | 6 Oct 2025 | Blue Origin will launch its New Glenn vehicle at the end of October or the first week of November 2025, sending NASA's Escapade satellite into orbit around Mars. Jeff Bezos · Promise · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 31 Dec 2024 | X is the number 1 source of news on Earth. Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 30 Dec 2024 | Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 30 Dec 2024 | The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Nate Silver | Promise | 7 Nov 2024 | Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner. Nate Silver · Promise · 7 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla is increasing 4680 cell capacity by another 100 gigawatt-hours, as announced at Giga Nevada. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 28 Mar 2021 | SpaceX may fly a Starship on the afternoon of 29 March 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Mar 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 6 Mar 2021 | Tesla will add a "Download Beta" button for FSD Beta to the Service section of the car display in about 10 days from 6 March 2021. Elon Musk · Promise · 6 Mar 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Nov 2020 | SpaceX aims to fly Starship SN8 on its first flight to about 15 km (~50,000 ft) altitude the week after 2020-11-24. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Nov 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | GiveWell hopes to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities in 2020, most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, but may have limited capacity due to COVID-19 work. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 20 Sep 2018 | Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket factory in Florida is a 650,000-square-foot manufacturing facility. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 20 Sep 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Satya Nadella | Factual | Oct 2017 | Microsoft is the only cloud provider that operates in China under Chinese law. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 17 Apr 2017 | Jeff Bezos frequently uses "disagree and commit" on decisions himself. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2014 | DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 14 Jan 2014 | Vinod Khosla has not invested over a billion dollars of his own money into cleantech. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Jan 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Jensen Huang | Factual | Mar 2013 | The NVIDIA GRID VCA is the world's first visual computing appliance. Jensen Huang · Factual · Mar 2013 | Their own work or organisation |
“for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year.”
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO 26 January 2023 Tesla Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)
Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
There are two parts. (a) The Cybertruck was not a significant contributor to Tesla's profit in 2023. (b) It was a significant one in 2024, meaning it made a material positive contribution to Tesla's profit, not just revenue or deliveries. Part (b) is the substantive prediction. TRUE: (a) holds, and Tesla filings, shareholder updates or earnings calls show the Cybertruck had positive gross margin and made a meaningful positive profit contribution in 2024, for example by being cited as a profit or margin driver. MOSTLY TRUE: both parts hold, but the 2024 contribution was modest or reached only late in the year. MOSTLY FALSE: (a) holds but (b) fails only in part, for example the Cybertruck reached break-even or slightly positive gross margin but was not a significant contributor. FALSE: (a) holds but in 2024 the Cybertruck lost money or was described as a drag on margins.
Evidence
- Tesla shares take off on strong earnings as Cybertruck makes a profit Euronews · 24 October 2024
“In its earnings report, Tesla noted: "Cybertruck production increased sequentially and achieved a positive gross margin for the first time."”
- Elon Musk warns Cybertruck won't be profitable until 2025 | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 18 October 2023
“Musk estimated that it will take about 18 months until the Cybertruck is cash flow positive.”
- Tesla Prepares Investors For Its Gap Year Heatmap · 24 January 2024
“The company also flagged that the continuing rollout of the Cybertruck, which launched late last year, weighed on its profits.”
Reasoning
Part (a) holds: Heatmap reported that Tesla said the Cybertruck rollout, which launched in late 2023, weighed on its profits (E3). For part (b), Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings report said the Cybertruck "achieved a positive gross margin for the first time" (E1). That means its gross margin was not positive before that quarter. None of the evidence shows the Cybertruck making a meaningful profit contribution in 2024 or being named as a profit or margin driver. This matches the criteria's mostly-false case: a positive gross margin was reached late in the year, but the truck was not shown to be a significant contributor.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.” (said 26 January 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_6eaca1c1e0f2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6eaca1c1e0f2
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.