Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

498 claims · page 5 of 5

498 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Real deployment of self-driving cars could come four, five or six decades after 1987. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy aims to phase out coal completely from its power and heat generation by 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Powerful AI could be built as early as 2026, though it could take much longer. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Most mental illness can probably be cured with AI-accelerated neuroscience. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks AI will similarly accelerate the rate of neuroscience advances, so that the framework of '100 years of progress in 5-10 years' applies to neuroscience in the same way it does to biology. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The human economy may continue to make sense a little past the point where AI reaches a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter'. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that powerful AI could at least 10x the rate of these biological discoveries, giving the next 50-100 years of biological progress in 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that diseases like PTSD, depression, schizophrenia and addiction can be figured out and very effectively treated. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 While AI is better at only 90% of a given job, the remaining 10% will make humans highly leveraged, raise compensation and create new complementary human jobs. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-accelerated neuroscience is likely to vastly improve treatments for, or cure, most mental illness and expand cognitive and mental freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks 5-10 years after powerful AI is a reasonable timeline for a good fraction (maybe 50%) of AI-driven health benefits to reach even the poorest countries in the world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Because cancer death rates have fallen about 2% per year for decades, humanity is on track to eliminate most cancer in the 21st century at the current pace of science. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 8 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicts that within about 15 years (by around 2030) humans will put gateways to the cloud in their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 8 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that by 2030 human thinking will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Malaria will not be completely eradicated by 2030, but all tools needed to eradicate it will exist by then. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he did not think robots over the next fifty, or even a hundred, years would be able to do everything, and that people would see more and more collaboration with machines during their lifetimes. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Over the next twenty years no one will mistake a robot for a person, but people will interact and collaborate with robots, which will become as common in daily life as search engines are today. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 Technology
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 None of Warren Buffett's pledged money will go to endowments; it will be spent on current needs. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 More than 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth will go to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 At the latest, proceeds from all of Warren Buffett's Berkshire shares will be spent for philanthropic purposes within 10 years after his estate is settled. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other global risks
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Around 2057, the world will probably have moved to all electric cars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said it is conservative to project that within 30 decades (300 years) current computational capacities would be multiplied by a factor of 10^90, exceeding Seth Lloyd's estimate of 10^90 bits in the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will have the scanning data and neuron models to build a model of the principles of operation of the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Intelligence will completely saturate the earth and solar system sometime in the 22nd century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light limit could be overcome, within 300 years human-origin intelligence would saturate the whole universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The spread of our intelligence through the universe, which he describes as slow and governed by the speed of light, will begin within 200 years of 2002. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will reverse-engineer the brain and go on to develop superintelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light is not a limit, within 300 years our intelligence would saturate the whole universe, making it supremely intelligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 In the 2020s non-biological computation will cross over and, in hardware terms, dominate biological computation quantitatively. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 200 years of 2002, our intelligence will nearly saturate the available matter and energy in and around the solar system, given current understanding of computation limits. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Because the rate of progress doubles every decade, the technical milestone under discussion will take only 25 calendar years from 2002 to reach. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Most of civilization's intelligence will be nonbiological, and by the end of the 21st century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By 2030, nanobot technology will be viable and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Kurzweil said we can conservatively expect the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see on the order of twenty thousand years of progress, measured at the rate of progress current when the statement was made (January 2001). Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 According to Kurzweil's models, the physical limits of matter and energy for intelligent processes won't be approached this century but will become an issue within a couple of centuries. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence, growing at a double exponential rate, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of the twenty-first century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the 21st century nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of biological humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2099, intelligence from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than in 2001, mostly nonbiological. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 From a practical perspective, people will accept the claims of nonbiological intelligent machines in the twenty-first century that they are conscious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological computing will overtake total human biological thinking capacity before 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will be feasible within 30 years of 2001, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Before the 22nd century begins, humanity will merge with its computational technology with no clear human-machine distinction. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the second half of the 21st century there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological brains will be vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 If paradigm shifts keep doubling about every decade, technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what the linear view would require on the order of 20,000 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
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Bill Gates

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Prediction Technology

“These breakthroughs will be driven by innovation in technology—ranging from new vaccines and hardier crops to much cheaper smartphones and tablets—and by innovations that help deliver those things to more people.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)

Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations.” (said 2015). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_6ea282ec9eb9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6ea282ec9eb9

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.