Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 264 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Hedge fund investing does not change the iron rule of investing: it is a zero sum game minus the fees and the trading friction. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Never before have all emerging countries outperformed the U.S. in GDP growth over a 12-month period, as they did in the period to early 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 So the leveraged deals, even if GMO’s forecasts were correct, would last longer than expected before defaulting, but only at the cost of… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The necessary conditions for a bubble to form are quite simple and number only two. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 I wonder what this alignment would look like. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 I urge our clients to take a detailed look at all their portfolios’ responses to these two jolts, for sometime sooner or later the shots… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 These two quite separate effects – Yale and Goldilocks – interact. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 However, fees of ‘2 and 20’ charged on 21% could account for this gap, so there may not actually be a negative alpha pre-cost Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Forestry holdings are an example where the diversifying effect alone has dramatically changed pricing. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Institutional shift into expensive hedge fund vehicles may lower returns available to existing long-only managers with positive alpha. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 (although it’s not clear from the early deals if they would know a tree if it bit them on the leg) Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Good or excellent economic fundamentals combined with tightening credit often result in a falling market. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 I’m not quite sure how the story does end. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Hedge fund fees are typically about 1.5% fixed fee plus 1% transaction costs plus at least 20% of profits, higher than long-only fees. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Citation Apr 2007 Ben Graham said that in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. Jeremy Grantham · Citation · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Hedge fund money is leveraged several times and turns over far more frequently than traditional money. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The most extreme relative overpricing in coming years should be at the intersection of high-risk and exotic diversification drivers. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The third deal is a bust: the manager makes 2% and the client loses a bundle. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The real shocker here is the asymmetry of returns. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 In the short term, recent great strength in most commodities may have already discounted this change for the next 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The return to capital and the cost of capital sooner or later get into line. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Grantham said the case for the average invested private equity dollar returning more than an equivalent leveraged S&P return is non-existent. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 It wreaks havoc with housing and commercial real estate by lowering the possible leverage and therefore lowering prices. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Of course in the longer run all assets are worth replacement cost and supply/demand imbalances do not change that. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Hedge funds' share of trading in U.S. equities has been said to be closing in on 50% as of 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The workings of competitive capitalism are, in the end, an irresistible force and that is why everything always trends to normal and every… Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 In 2000 Microsoft's market capitalisation was larger than the value of all the world's forests. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 It almost can’t compute, but it will be exciting trying. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 The better (now largely closed) managers produced performance of 20% to 30% compounded per year. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 My colleagues suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase and perhaps they are right. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, real estate, stocks and bonds all measure expensive against their own histories and against replacement cost where calculable. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Above all, these fashionable, repackaged assets are still part of a zero sum game and their higher fees are, in the end, your lower returns. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Global profit margins, currently far above average, will come down. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Private equity grew even faster than hedge funds over the three years before April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 The larger, later-arriving managers have barely averaged a positive return. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 First, the fundamental economic conditions must look at least excellent – and near perfect is better. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The good news for the investors is that at least there would be no carry! Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Grantham says GMO has not found any case where excellent fundamentals and generous cheap liquidity coexisted without producing a bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 For slow-moving managers who do not exit quickly by unloading their company, default will probably be common. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 The incremental cost of debt at 4 to 1 leverage comes to over 2% a year even after tax deductions. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 with only 20% equity, it wipes out all value in 6 years, other things being equal! Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Most bubbles, such as internet stocks and Japanese land, go through an exponential phase before breaking, usually short in time but dramatic in extent. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Citation Apr 2007 A Greenwich Associates report in the Wall Street Journal of April 12, 2007 said 24% of institutions expect to lower allocations to U.S. active equity versus 4% increasing. Jeremy Grantham · Citation · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 In May 2006 emerging markets declined by 25% in three weeks, during what was fundamentally their best year in history. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 In the long term, this shift from a downward drift to an upward drift is very important. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 But this time, everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 There is probably lots of information in these minor shocks, which may prove useful for a major shock. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Stocks may be real assets, but behaviorally it destabilizes stock investors and causes P/Es to fall. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, Grantham personally holds a short position in copper. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 All in all we should fasten our seat belts. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 I suggest taking a close look at one’s entire portfolio on each of these shocks and checking for leaks in the boat – unexpected effects. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Infrastructure is the most recent investment area to attract rapid increases in capital, partly because other opportunities became overpriced. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 To say the least, there has never ever been anything like the uniformity of this reinforcement. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 As long as you can make your quarterly interest payments in private equity deals, you are okay. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Second, liquidity must be generous in quantity and price: it must be easy and cheap to leverage. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Every bubble in history has eventually burst. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Increased supply of investment funds has quickly pushed formerly high risk-adjusted returns on such deals down to thin levels. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Bubble breaks usually have no observable catalyst; no agreed catalyst exists for 1929, 1987, 2000 or the South Sea bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 Venture capital is a tough market these days that always has plenty of competition Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 And this is known as alignment of interest, apparently so lacking in public companies. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 The cap-weighted average return of private equity is at best equal to the S&P 500, depending on the analysis. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not researched Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Several academics think leveraged buyouts are a modest destroyer of real value. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 U.S. blue chips and U.S. bonds will mostly be priced lower relative to fair value than the trendier newer asset classes. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 If you believed this data you should, of course, put all your money in cash. Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not checkable Jeremy Grantham Not checkable Apr 2007 This was a ridiculously high real return for an asset whose virtues included that it was exceptionally diversifying Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Apr 2007
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 The trend the subject described had its leading edge in Western societies, especially England and Holland, and there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset of the Age of Reason in the early seventeenth century. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Social scientists counting bodies across historical periods have found that people have become less violent with modernity, not more. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 The decline of violence applies across genocide, war, rioting, homicide and the treatment of children and animals. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 As deplorable as they are, the abuses at Abu Ghraib and the lethal injections of a few murderers in Texas are mild by the standards of… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Today, such sadism would be unthinkable in most of the world. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 People estimate the probability of an event from how easily they can recall examples. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Nor is it necessarily grounds for optimism about the immediate future, since the world has never before had national leaders who combine… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Pinker said that in every Western European country analyzed by Manuel Eisner, whose data come from localities that kept records at some point between 1200 and the mid-1990s, murder rates declined steeply, e.g. from 24 per 100,000 Englishmen in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 The first is that Hobbes got it right. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 From the likelihood that states will commit genocide to the way that people treat cats, we must have been doing something right. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Some of the evidence has been under our nose all along. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 The early Hebrews were no more murderous than other tribes; early Hindu, Christian, Muslim and Chinese histories also contain frequent boasts of torture and genocide. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Steven Pinker Citation 1 Jan 2007 According to political scientist Barbara Harff, the number of campaigns of mass killing of civilians fell by 90 percent between 1989 and 2005. Steven Pinker · Citation · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Recently, however, those ideas have come to sound corny, even dangerous. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 After the cold war every part of the world saw a steep drop in state-based conflicts, and those that occur are more likely to end in negotiated settlements. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 The empathy escalator may also be powered by cosmopolitanism, in which journalism, memoir, and realistic fiction make the inner lives of… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Natural selection could not have favored genes for meekness quickly enough to explain the decline in violence. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Man's inhumanity to man has long been a subject for moralization. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Long-term trends can be discerned only by smoothing out zigzags and spikes of horrific bloodletting. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 The usual suspects—guns, drugs, the press, American culture—aren't nearly up to the job. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Instead of asking, "Why is there war?" we might ask, "Why is there peace?" Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 What has changed, of course, is people's willingness to act on these fantasies. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 These tragedies can be averted by a state with a monopoly on violence, because it can inflict disinterested penalties that eliminate the… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 Scenes of carnage are more likely to be relayed to our living rooms and burned into our memories than footage of people dying of old age. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2007 We enjoy the peace we find today because people in past generations were appalled by the violence in their time and worked to end it, and… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2007
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Several historians have suggested that the number of recorded wars has increased across the centuries to the present. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
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Steven Pinker

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Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

“The Hebrews, of course, were no more murderous than other tribes; one also finds frequent boasts of torture and genocide in the early histories of the Hindus, Christians, Muslims, and Chinese.”

Steven Pinker, essay author 1 January 2007 A History of Violence (Edge.org)

The early Hebrews were no more murderous than other tribes; early Hindu, Christian, Muslim and Chinese histories also contain frequent boasts of torture and genocide.

Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “The early Hebrews were no more murderous than other tribes; early Hindu, Christian, Muslim and Chinese histories also contain frequent boasts of torture and genocide.” (said 1 January 2007). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_656932cd3f2e, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_656932cd3f2e

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