Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 261 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 All that vast potential hinges on our survival here, now, in the days when the realm of humankind is a single planet orbiting a single star. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 EP is a powerful, still maturing technique that is intrinsically unsuited to the demands of Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 An optimization process steers the future into particular regions of the possible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But if people are liable to confidently believe that the button does something quite different from its actual consequence, that is cause… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I don’t think this exact scenario is plausible, mostly because I don’t expect the curve of recursive self-improvement to move at a linear… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 There is a taboo against talking about humanlevel capabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Nature does not match her challenges to your skill, or your resources, or how much free time you have to think about the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Storytellers obey strict rules of narrative unrelated to reality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Any technology which increases available computing power decreases the minimum theoretical sophistication necessary to develop Artificial… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Of all possible configurations for the atoms making up the Corolla, only an infinitesimal fraction qualify as a useful working car. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Citation 2008 Latane and Darley's 1969 experiments found the bystander effect: larger groups are less likely to act in emergencies, individually and collectively. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Yet for a futurist, disjunctions make for an awkward and unpoetic-sounding prophecy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The danger of confusing general intelligence with g-factor is that it leads to tremendously underestimating the potential impact of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 When technology first becomes capable of uploading, it will have overwhelmingly more computing power and probably far better cognitive science than building an AI requires. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The subjects in these experiments don't make mistakes on purpose; they make mistakes because they don't know how to do better. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 To build an AI that discovers the orbits of the planets, the programmers need not know the math of Newtonian mechanics, only the math of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The above methodology for expert elicitation looks perfectly reasonable Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This may have been one contributing factor to the embarrassing history of AI, which stems not from the difficulty of AI as such, but from the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The scenario of humanity going extinct in the next century is a disjunctive event. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Since the given description of Linda was chosen to be similar to a feminist and dissimilar to a bank teller, (8) is more representative of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Discussions of existential risk not uncommonly draw their categories, choices, consequences and strategies from movies, books and television shows. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Other global risks
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Later research has generalized and elaborated the phenomena in the Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky volume, and its basic results still stand. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Extreme confidence in wrong answers is common in the heuristics and biases literature, where it is known as overconfidence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 g-factor metaphors seem most common in popular futurism: when people think of “intelligence” they think of human geniuses instead of humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The second threat scenario is less vivid and alarming, but the defense is more useful because it is more vague. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 As of 2008 there is no shield that can deflect a nuclear explosion. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Other global risks
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Natural selection isn’t friendly, nor does it hate you, nor will it leave you alone. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Often Nature poses requirements that are grossly unfair, even on tests where the penalty for failure is death. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he feared regulatory agencies would not approve human experiments, in the context of augmenting human intelligence through biology. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But human beings are not trustworthy to peer over a purported proof of ten billion steps; we have too high a chance of missing an error. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Taking Piracetam or drinking caffeine will not make a person substantially smarter than Einstein. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Citation 2008 By the halting problem (Rice 1953), it is impossible to predict whether an arbitrary computational system implements any given input-output function, including simple multiplication. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We must execute the creation of Artificial Intelligence as the exact application of an exact art. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 People may be overconfident and over-optimistic. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Awareness of human fallibility is a dangerous knowledge, if you remind yourself of the fallibility of those who disagree with you. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The first moral is that confusing the speed of AI research with the speed of a real AI once built is like confusing the speed of physics… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 A majoritarian strategy only works if it is not possible for a single defector to cause global catastrophic damage. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 And when you run into a lethal challenge too difficult for you, you die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Every true idea which discomforts you will seem to match the pattern of at least one psychological error. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The main advice the metaphor gives us is that we had better get Friendly AI right, which is good advice in any case. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But in forecasting, every added detail is an extra burden! Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 A superintelligent AI whose goal system operates in an unforeseen fashion may actively resist human attempts to correct it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 It seems that people do not extrapolate from experienced small hazards to the possibility of large risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The obvious experimental manipulations of heuristics-and-biases studies have already been tried, and the results were found to be robust. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Citation 2008 In the Buehler et al. study, students took on average 55 days to complete their thesis, 22 days longer than anticipated and 7 days longer than their worst-case predictions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The elapsed turnaround time would be, imaginably, on the order of a week from when the fast intelligence first became able to solve the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Familiarity with heuristics and biases can enable us to detect a wide variety of logical flaws that might otherwise evade our inspection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 A majoritarian strategy is sometimes workable, if you have decades in which to do your work. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The two Gilovich, Griffin and Kahneman edited volumes overview the heuristics and biases field in its current form. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 As logic, the above argument contains holes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Few people would push a button that they clearly knew would cause a global catastrophe. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I introduce the concept of an optimization process Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Yudkowsky wrote that, to the best of his ability to discern, there were no existing major works on the topic to cite as of January 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Because of hindsight bias, we learn overly specific lessons. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 We would expect a true AI, an Artificial General Intelligence, to be capable of changing its empirical beliefs Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 And the stakes of existential risk extend beyond even the six billion humans alive today, to all the stars in all the galaxies that… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But if they had said might, I would have no objection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The raw materials for AI are already everywhere. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 If the AI tribe wins in military conflict and wipes out the humans, that is an existential catastrophe of the Bang variety Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2008 The Scion Funds are roughly one-fifth cash, held largely in foreign currencies. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I do not assign strong confidence to the assertion that Friendly AI is easier than human augmentation, or that it is safer. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Building dams reduces flood frequency but damage per flood becomes so much greater that average yearly damage increases. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Economics and markets
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 It only takes a single counterexample to falsify a universal quantifier. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 It would be physically possible to build a brain computing a million times faster than a human brain without shrinking it, cooling it, or using reversible or quantum computing. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 They are somewhat less accessible to a general audience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Otherwise you become slower to react to incoming evidence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But one should not so quickly write off the challenge, especially considering the stakes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Intelligence is the foundation of human power, the strength that fuels our other arts. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 When we talk about “AIs” we are really talking about minds-in-general, or optimization processes in general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 A dead planet, lifelessly orbiting its star, is also stable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 But the stakes are much, much higher. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Absolute power is a conservative engineering assumption in Friendly AI, exposing broken designs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 I cannot see how nanotechnology would make it easier to develop Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 There is no way to obtain more truth for a proposition by bribery, flattery, or the most passionate argument - you can make more people… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Friendly AI is not about brute-forcing the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Any two AI designs might be less similar to one another than you are to a petunia. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The AI might transcend the factual error of its programmers, provided that the programmers understood inference rather better than they… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 A technical failure occurs when the code does not do what you think it does, though it faithfully executes as you programmed it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Overconfidence applies strongly to planning, where it is known as the planning fallacy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Spearman's g is a statistical abstraction from individual differences in intelligence among humans, a species far more intelligent than lizards. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it will prove easier, in the end, to build a 747 from scratch than to scale up an existing bird or graft on jet engines, an analogy he used for building Artificial Intelligence rather than taking another road into the challenge of smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said that, with only three such contracts remaining in force, he did not expect further meaningful impact on the Funds' portfolios from this sort of trade. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 With molecular nanotechnology, an AI could potentially rewrite the solar system unopposed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 To live even a million years, as an unaging human in a world as risky as our own, you must somehow drive your annual probability of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Someone should know that when an expert says the probability is "a million to one" without using actuarial data or calculations from a… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 The first AI built cannot by itself do catastrophic damage. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 When he first began thinking about these matters, Yudkowsky expected the largest benefits from Artificial Intelligence yet felt no anxiety about it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 It once occurred to me that modern civilization occupies an unstable state. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Heuristics and biases are widespread in human reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Friendly AI programmers should assume that the AI has total access to its own source code. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only Michael Burry Promise 2008 Scion Capital is closing its dedicated Asian investment funds and returning capital to investors in those funds. Michael Burry · Promise · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 Do-What-I-Mean is a major, nontrivial technical challenge of Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 AIs will swiftly invent the kind of capabilities that cliche would attribute to human civilization a century or millennium from now Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 They may conflate positive information about the benefits of a technology as negative information about its risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2008 This is the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle, the way to close the window of vulnerability; it is also probably the… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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“Any technology which increases available computing power decreases the minimum theoretical sophistication necessary to develop Artificial Intelligence, but doesn’t help at all on the Friendly side of things, and I count it as a net negative.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky 2008 Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI)

Any technology which increases available computing power decreases the minimum theoretical sophistication necessary to develop Artificial…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Any technology which increases available computing power decreases the minimum theoretical sophistication necessary to develop Artificial…” (said 2008). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_640a0b41105b, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_640a0b41105b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.