Claims

Promise · Their own work or organisation

“Doubling beta program size now with 8.2 & probably 10X size with 8.3.”

Elon Musk, posting on X · 6 March 2021 · Post by @elonmusk on X, 2021-03-06 (X)

Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (1) the FSD Beta programme roughly doubled in size with software version 8.2; (2) it grew roughly tenfold with version 8.3. With no deadline given, judged by the end of 2021. True: both happened, as shown by tester counts or reports. A 'roughly' tenfold growth may be about 7 to 13 times larger. Mostly true: both expansions happened, but with a modest gap in the size of the increase. Mixed: one part happened and the other did not (for example, the doubling happened but the much larger 8.3 expansion did not happen with 8.3). Mostly false: there was only minor expansion. False: the programme did not grow meaningfully with either version, or 8.3 was skipped or released without a substantial expansion and the doubling did not happen.

Evidence

1. Tesla officially expands FSD Beta test field while revoking access to the irresponsible Teslarati · 13 March 2021

   “This has evidently happened, as Musk said in a Tweet last night that access was granted to additional Tesla owners who will now be able to use the driving features in the United States.”

2. Tesla is adding 10X FSD Beta testers with the 8.3 release, 'Download FSD Beta' button, more - Tesla Oracle Tesla Oracle · 6 March 2021

   “Reportedly, there were around 1,000 FSD Beta program members before the 8.2 update, after 8.2 there will be 2,000 and with the 8.3 release, there will be 10,000 FSD Beta testers.”

3. Tesla receives harsh rebuke from NTSB head over Full Self-Driving terminology Teslarati · 20 September 2021

   “Tesla’s FSD Beta program has been ongoing for the better part of a year now, and so far, the program has grown to 2,000 users.”

4. Tesla pushes 'Full Self-Driving Beta' to investor with poor 'safety score' while requiring perfect score from others Electrek · 14 October 2021

   “The program consists of about 2,000 people – mostly employees and some owners chosen by Tesla.”

Reasoning

Teslarati reported in March 2021 that access was granted to additional owners (E1). By September and October 2021 the programme was described as having about 2,000 users (E3, E4), double the roughly 1,000 members reported before 8.2 (E2). However, in September and October 2021, Teslarati and Electrek still described the programme as about 2,000 users (E3, E4), not the roughly 10,000 projected for 8.3 (E2). The doubling therefore happened, but the evidence shows no tenfold expansion tied to 8.3.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3.” (said 6 March 2021). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_637b9df37b8e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_637b9df37b8e