Claims

Prediction · Economics and markets

“we do not believe that they will permanently impair Valeant’s intrinsic value.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author · January 2016 · Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Annual Investor Letter (2015 letter) (GuruFocus)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Intrinsic value cannot be observed directly. Judge it over about five years from January 2016 using these proxies: Valeant/Bausch Health's market capitalisation and enterprise value compared with mid-2015 pre-crisis levels; goodwill and intangible impairments; asset sales at losses; changes in earnings and cash-flow power; and analyst or company reassessments of value. TRUE: by about 2021 the company's value had recovered to roughly pre-crisis levels, with no large permanent write-downs. MOSTLY TRUE: a substantial recovery, though still somewhat below pre-crisis levels. MIXED: partial recovery with some permanent write-downs. MOSTLY FALSE: value stayed far below pre-crisis levels, with only modest recovery. FALSE: value stayed a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, with large impairments, distressed divestitures, and/or holders such as Pershing Square exiting at large realised losses, showing permanent impairment.

Evidence

1. $1,000, 5 Years Later: Valeant's Wild Ride To Bausch Health Yahoo Finance · 16 February 2021

   “In early 2021, Bausch shares made it as high as $32.31, their highest level since 2016.”

2. $1,000, 5 Years Later: Valeant's Wild Ride To Bausch Health Yahoo Finance · 16 February 2021

   “In the 2010s, Valeant went on an unsustainable acquisition spree that drove its share price from around $20 per share to as high as $263.81 in 2015 — but left the company buried under a mountain of debt.”

3. $1,000, 5 Years Later: Valeant's Wild Ride To Bausch Health Yahoo Finance · 16 February 2021

   “In the first half of 2016, Valeant reduced its full-year EPS guidance by 50% and its revenue guidance by 20%.”

4. Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. Announces Sale of Its Investment In Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. | Pershing Square Holdings Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (press release via Business Wire) · 13 March 2017 Own record

   “As a result, we elected to sell our investment and realize a large tax loss which will enable us to dedicate more time to our other portfolio companies and new investment opportunities.”

Reasoning

Valeant's share price peaked at $263.81 in 2015 (E2). By early 2021 the Bausch Health high was only $32.31, its highest level since 2016 (E1), which is roughly 12% of the 2015 peak. In the first half of 2016 the company cut its EPS guidance by 50% and its revenue guidance by 20% (E3). That points to a reduction in expected earnings for 2016 [E3]. Pershing Square sold its whole stake in 2017 and took a large realised loss (E4). These points match the FALSE criteria, although the evidence gives share prices rather than market capitalisation or enterprise value figures, and it does not cover impairment figures.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value.” (said January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_5c46b5b3816d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5c46b5b3816d