Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 34 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Satya Nadella Not checkable 4 Jan 2026 We are beginning to distinguish between 'spectacle' and 'substance,' Satya Nadella · Not checkable · 4 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 AI deployment for real-world impact will evolve from standalone models to systems. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Satya Nadella Not checkable 4 Jan 2026 We need to get beyond the arguments of slop vs sophistication and develop a new equilibrium in terms of our 'theory of the mind' that… Satya Nadella · Not checkable · 4 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 Future AI systems will build rich scaffolds that orchestrate multiple models and agents, account for memory and entitlements, and enable rich and safe tool use. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Satya Nadella Not checkable 4 Jan 2026 What matters is not the power of any given model, but how people choose to apply it to achieve their goals, Satya Nadella · Not checkable · 4 Jan 2026
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 3 Jan 2026 My earlier Conversations with Tyler about Venezuela: Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 3 Jan 2026
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 3 Jan 2026 From October: Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 3 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Specialized manipulation tasks using special purpose grippers, materials, planning, sensing and some machine learning may lead to enormous application markets. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 The problem with the new plan is the landing vehicle and getting it to lunar orbit. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 The linear threshold neuron models used in current neural networks are extremely primitive compared to what neuroscience has learned in the last sixty five years. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Despite their successes with language, LLMs come with some serious problems of a purely implementation nature. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Most of the early humanoid robot companies will quietly shut down and disappear, as happened with self driving car companies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 This is not an uncommon sort of engineering failure during early testing. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Digital quantum computation nirvana has not yet been demonstrated. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 As with many such technology demonstrators the actual business model seems to be getting cities to spend lots of money on a Kabuki theater… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 New Glenn reached orbit on its first attempt and delivered a Blue Origin test Blue Ring payload to space. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Over the last eight years there has been progress in the dexterity of suction grippers for single-plane surface contact. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I think that many people get confused by that and make the mistake of jumping between those domains of reality, thinking all the speeds… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Since GM completely disbanded its operation in December 2024, Waymo (owned by Google) has been the indisputable leading deployed service. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Archer got some revenue in 2025 by selling a service forward to the city of Abu Dhabi, but no revenue from actual operations. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 It is just that I completely disagree with the hype arguing that building robots with humanoid form magically will make robots useful and… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 NASA's schedule for landing two astronauts on the Moon has currently slipped to 2027. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 The 2025 Starship flights were on average better than 2024's, but two vehicles destroyed themselves before the flight stage and nothing reached orbit. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 And I certainly did not foresee this volume of launches. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Lack of robotics progress will negatively affect the quality of life of newly elderly people for the next couple of decades. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Tesla was not operating a robotaxi service in Phoenix, San Francisco, Miami, Las Vegas, Dallas or Houston by the end of 2025, apparently lacking permits. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Perhaps there are similar possible solutions for humanoid robots and falling, but they need to be invented yet. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks's 2018 predictions did not address either of the two technologies he now includes in his prediction topics, but discussed competences and capabilities. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 My predictions were much more measured and some might say even pessimistic. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Without new types of mechanical systems, walking humanoid robots will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Thus the results of using them, uncaged, is lots and lots of confabulations that sound like real things, whether they are or not. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I am not at all negative about a great future for robots, and in the nearish term. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 This is not a consumer product, and this is not a flying car that is here, despite the true believer headline. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 With about 7,000 dark signals and perhaps 1,000 vehicles on the road, Waymo did not have enough human staff to handle the volume of assistance requests during its outage. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Any human driver would have figured out what was going on and that the Fedex truck would never go down the hill backwards but would… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 The International Space Station will reach end of life in 2030 after almost thirty years of continuous human habitation. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 In summary, I thought that more progress would be made on many of these problems than has been achieved over the last eight years. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks said that, as of the end of 2022, he could not find a single video of a demo of an actual eVTOL flight profile with actual people aboard, of the sort said to generate eVTOL taxi revenue by 2025. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Back when I made my predictions it meant a vehicle that could both drive on roads and fly through the air. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 There is no steady growth in the number of humans launched to orbit, and the numbers are well below the Shuttle era of the 1990s and early 2000s. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Joby Aviation demonstrated the transition maneuver in April 2025. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 In the last 10 years the computing industry moved from general purpose silicon to special purpose silicon for its highest volume computations. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Zoox, owned by Amazon, is an operational but very distant second to Waymo among self driving taxi services. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I will not be surprised if it never happens as the lure of humanoids completely distracts the CEO. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 A crewed lunar flyby is scheduled for about two months after January 2026, and the rocket is already stacked. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 This fantasy is over, for now at least. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 The three US companies that deployed uncrewed self-driving taxi services (Cruise, Waymo, Zoox) were partially or fully owned by large corporations (GM, Alphabet, Amazon). Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 For self driving taxis, human intervention rate will be the key metric because it determines profitability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I have seen a lot of hype and crash cycles in all aspects of AI and robotics, but this time around is the craziest. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Using machine learning (and tens of millions of dollars) to extract it rather than just looking at the source code (and perhaps buying or… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Normally one would hope that the need for that debugging feature had been resolved before large scale deployment. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 As of early 2026 Brooks said he still could not find a video of an actual eVTOL taxi-style flight with actual people aboard. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Waymo has made no promises yet about when it might start operating in cities that commonly have significant snow accumulation. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 These two drawbacks mean there is an incredible financial incentive to invent replacements for each of (1) our humble single neuron models… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 When Brooks predicted in 2018 that something big would appear in AI, he did not know it would be LLMs. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 And it may be possible to train it with purely visual data. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Actual self-driving is now generally accepted to be much harder than every one believed. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the next ten years deployable robot dexterity may improve markedly, but not in the way the current humanoid robot hype suggests. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Research failed Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Waymo added two cities in 2025, Austin and Atlanta. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 They would have to then quintuple in 2027 to beat my prediction. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Yes, you have seen humanoid robot theater. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Boeing's Starliner will fly again, potentially twice in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Cruise's self-driving taxi service was shut down and no longer exists, after setbacks in 2023 and 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 No current robot has force sensing and control capabilities remotely capable of safely and comfortably performing physical elder-care tasks. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Successful quantum computers will directly emulate physical systems for specialized problem classes rather than run conventional general computation on quantum hardware. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks has worked on humanoid robots for decades in academia and in producing and selling humanoid robots deployed at scale doing real work, which no one else has done. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 The post is Rodney Brooks's eighth annual update on his January 1, 2018 predictions about self driving cars, robotics/AI/ML and human space travel. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will be many interesting demonstrations, but ten years is too short a period for a clear winner to emerge. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks says the networks shown in his figure have adjustable weights counted in the hundreds of billions, which he says occupy over a terabyte of storage. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks thinks the training regimes used for robot locomotion and dexterity are either ignoring or trying to zero out the robots' embodiment (their inertias and forces), reducing them to merely being situated. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Tesla is not on a path to becoming a real self driving taxi service. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks said it looks like Waymo had a debugging feature in its code and not enough people to provide real-time support for handling its implications. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 On all 9 Apollo flights to the Moon the spacecraft came much closer to the Moon than Artemis II will, and 8 went into orbit at about 60 to 70 miles above the surface. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 New companies will become specialists in boxing in and controlling LLMs. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 No clear winner among new neural computation approaches beyond linear threshold systems will emerge by 2036, though there will be multiple candidates. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Think of them as 21st century analog computers. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Since 1991 Brooks has distinguished between situatedness and embodiment as two separate properties a machine or creature can have. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I have no information that it actually happened. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 No one has ever demonstrated transfer of liquid fuel in space. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The successful humanoid robots of the future will be very different from those being hyped today. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 It seems likely that Waymo has a good shot at getting operations running in five additional US cities (Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando) in 2026, which would double its total number of US cities to 10. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin is likely to come close to achieving what it says it intends to do and when for suborbital and orbital flights. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 The robots are situated in the world—they do not deal with abstract descriptions, but with the here and now of the world directly… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 There is risk to this plan from the deterioration of the Russian economy. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Mostly false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Analog quantum computers are another matter. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 No other modern rocket has a launch volume that comes close to the Falcon 9 record. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Humanoid robot demonstrations have no real-time sensing and cannot wander in unseen environments, especially with slipping hazards like towels or cardboard on the floor. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I argue that the players are (a) collecting the wrong data and (b) trying to learn the wrong thing. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 It is now clear to me that I was way too optimistic in regard to my predictions for Mars Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Economic pull is out there. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 There is going to be some stiff competition between SpaceX and Blue Origin. Either might win. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Given that careful analysis from September I do not share the hype that surrounds humanoid robotics today. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The new dexterity in robot manipulation may turn out to be special purpose rather than human-hand-like. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 So this is a more conservative mission than those of Apollo. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I can’t quite get all the numbers but this table makes the comparisons with the numbers I can find. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I did not claim to be clairvoyant about exactly what would happen, rather I was making predictions about the speed of new research ideas… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 It makes no sense there as the adaptability of the hand is its most precious attribute. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 VCs, please take note: there are real pulls on having technologies that can help the elderly Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
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Rodney Brooks

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Prediction Other

“But even with that bump there may be other pressures which keep it from rising above the high twenties for 2026”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2026 Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight.” (said 1 January 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_5aeec2fb1bf9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5aeec2fb1bf9

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.