Claims

Prediction · Economics and markets

“Get ready for our politicians to lose you some more money”

Jim Cramer, CNBC host · 24 May 2023 · As debt ceiling talks flounder, Cramer says lawmakers' actions will cost you (CNBC)

US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is judged from 2023-05-24 to the resolution of the 2023 US debt-ceiling standoff (the Fiscal Responsibility Act was signed on 2023-06-03; horizon 2023-06-05). The claim has two parts: politicians fail to reach a deal in time, and US stocks lose investors money. True: the standoff ran past the X-date or default, or failed to resolve smoothly, and the S&P 500 fell materially (more than about 2%) from its 2023-05-24 close because of it. Mostly true: stocks fell materially in connection with the negotiations, though a deal was eventually reached. Mixed: one part held, for example a temporary dip of about 1–2% tied to the talks followed by recovery. Mostly false: a deal was reached in time and stocks were flat or only briefly and trivially lower. False: a deal was reached before the X-date and the S&P 500 was higher at the horizon than its 2023-05-24 close, with no material drawdown along the way.

Evidence

1. Biden addresses nation on debt ceiling deal to avoid default: "This is vital" CBS News · 2 June 2023

   “Congress' passage of the legislation before the weekend ensures that the federal government will have the authority to borrow more and pay its bills ahead of the critical June 5 deadline identified by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.”

2. S And P 500 Index Since Jan 1 2023 To 30 June 2023 | StatMuse Money StatMuse

   “| June 05 2023 | $4,282.99 | $4,299.28 | $4,266.82 | $4,273.79 | 3,813,290,000 |”

3. S And P 500 Index Since Jan 1 2023 To 30 June 2023 | StatMuse Money StatMuse

   “| May 25 2023 | $4,155.71 | $4,165.74 | $4,129.73 | $4,151.28 | 4,147,760,000 |”

4. CAPIS Morning Note - 05/24/23: Stocks Lower As Fears Of Debt Ceiling Breakdown Rise - Capis CAPIS · 24 May 2023

   “Stocks wobbled for much of Tuesday before sliding deeper into the red, as Wall Street followed last-minute talks to stave off a U.S. default that some investors fear would upend financial markets.”

5. Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

   “#2023-05-24|4115.24”

6. Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

   “#2023-06-05|4273.79”

7. Dow surges over 700 points as investors cheer jobs report and debt ceiling deal | CNN Business CNN · 2 June 2023

   “The stock market’s gains come after the Senate passed the debt ceiling deal in a Thursday evening vote, leaving investors anticipating an end to weeks of concern that the United States could default on its debt for the first time.”

8. The 2023 debt ceiling crisis disrupted some markets but left limited economic impact Peterson Institute for International Economics · 30 October 2023

   “In 2023, on the other hand, there was remarkably little change in the S&P 500 during the debt ceiling debates, indicating that participants in these markets did not anticipate a significant risk of default.”

Reasoning

Congress passed the debt-limit legislation before Treasury's June 5 deadline, so a deal was reached in time (E1, E7). FRED data puts the S&P 500 at 4115.24 on 2023-05-24 and 4273.79 on 2023-06-05, a gain of about 3.9% at the horizon (E5, E6). The next day's close of 4151.28 was also above the May 24 level (E3). A Peterson Institute review found remarkably little change in the S&P 500 during the debt-ceiling debates, and none of the evidence shows a material fall after May 24 (E8).

Cite this claim

Jim Cramer, “US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on.” (said 24 May 2023). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_586a25e3beee, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_586a25e3beee