6,750 claims · page 33 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 9 Nov 2022 | Thiel said that, if "it" is not enough for the Democrats, it is probably enough for the Republicans to win the 2024 presidential election; the excerpt does not say what "it" refers to. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | The average person in California earns twice as much as the average person in Germany and three times as much as the average person in Japan. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | At GitHub Universe in November 2022, GitHub announced Copilot for business and Codespaces for all. Satya Nadella · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | California is not a poor state. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | The top 10% of Americans hold 80% of US equity, the top 1% about 50%, and the bottom 80% hold almost none. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Roubini's book MegaThreats extensively discusses the threat to liberal democracies from backlash against trade, technology and social and political institutions. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | US stocks will fall much lower than their November 2022 level before flattening out. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Developments connected to machine learning will cause massive inequality, with owners of capital and highly skilled labor winning while everybody else loses. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In November 2022 a one-year US Treasury yields roughly 4%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Historically, every time inequality reached this level it led to civil war and revolution. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In the last 60 years of US history, there has been no episode with inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5% in which the Fed started raising rates and avoided a hard landing. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 4 Nov 2022 | From mid-2021 to mid-2022 Rodney Brooks wrote 12 monthly columns. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 4 Nov 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 3 Nov 2022 | In Balaji Srinivasan's view, AR glasses are the most predictable innovation in the world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 3 Nov 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The US debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 is higher than after the Great Depression and World War II. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | He does not expect hyperinflation or double-digit inflation in the advanced economies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The 1970s stagflation was not a debt crisis and did not involve a geopolitical depression. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | Over the longer term, AI will make humans almost completely obsolete. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There will be inflation, recession and stagflation plus a stagflation-debt crisis causing many people to go bankrupt. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There is a very real risk of a return to 1930s-40s conditions of economic collapse, massive pandemic and real wars. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly false | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Until recently debt servicing costs were close to zero or negative despite unsustainably high debt ratios. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Quantitative easing kept debt servicing ratios low, and credit easing kept spreads low on everything from mortgages to high-yield high-grade commercial paper. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | In the 1970s there was a negative stagflationary shock with inflation followed by recession. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Iran is becoming nuclear, which Israel regards as an existential threat it cannot accept. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | The US and China will eventually be on a collision course over Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are revisionist powers rejecting the post-World War II international order. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | With interest rates rising, the mother of all debt crises is going to occur. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Climate change causes zoonotic disease, and pandemics result from destruction of animal ecosystems. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheet cracks, sea levels will rise 10 feet within about 4 months. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If inflation gets de-anchored, it can rise from around 2% to 4% or even 5% or more. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If inflation rises from 2% to 6%, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise to about 8%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 27 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella's annual letter to Microsoft shareholders reflects on connecting what technology can do with what the world needs. Satya Nadella · Factual · 27 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 25 Oct 2022 | The era of the Great Moderation, with okay growth and low 2% inflation, is over. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Oct 2022 | The economy is entering an era of stagflation, debt instability and crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 25 Oct 2022 | As of October 2022 the world faces major mega threats: monetary, social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, trade and technology. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Oct 2022 | Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Amodei said he does not believe US export controls were ever designed to prevent China from obtaining a few tens of thousands of chips. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek, a Chinese company, was the first to demonstrate the expected AI cost reductions, which had never before happened with a Chinese company. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Because reasoning-focused RL is new, the amount all AI developers spend on the RL training stage is still small, so the field is early on its scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | The current rate of algorithmic curve shift is maybe about 4x per year. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek-V3 was the real innovation and should have made people take notice a month before this statement, and the speaker says that "we" did take notice of it. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | US AI companies will soon achieve similar cost reductions, through the usual cost-reduction trend rather than by copying DeepSeek. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Anthropic finds Claude 3.5 Sonnet remains much better than DeepSeek-V3 on some key tasks such as real-world coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek was not substantially more resource-constrained than US AI companies, and export controls were not the main factor causing its innovation. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Dario Amodei and his co-founders were among the first to document, while at OpenAI, that scaling up AI training smoothly improves results across a range of cognitive tasks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Improvements in training cost efficiency typically lead AI companies to spend more, not less, on training models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Amodei said he thinks a fair statement is that DeepSeek produced a model close in performance to US models 7-10 months older, at a good deal less cost but not near the ratios people have suggested. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 12 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella gave a keynote at Microsoft Ignite on 2022-10-12. Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 12 Oct 2022 | Microsoft is bringing Microsoft Teams Rooms to Cisco meeting room devices. Satya Nadella · Promise · 12 Oct 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 21 Sep 2022 | Programs supported by the Global Fund have reduced the death toll from AIDS, TB and malaria by 50%, saving more than 50 million lives. Bill Gates · Factual · 21 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 20 Sep 2022 | The Goalkeepers community is meeting in person for the first time since 2019. Bill Gates · Factual · 20 Sep 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 16 Sep 2022 | Employment has risen because people enhanced their own capabilities by using machines rather than competing with them. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 16 Sep 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will become far smarter by using machines to increase the number of parameters they can consider in decisions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will go beyond their current 300 million neocortical modules. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will be able to multiply their neocortical capacity by ten, a hundred, a thousand, a million. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 16 Sep 2022 | The number of people working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up, as shown in Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Nearer (expected June 18, 2024). Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 16 Sep 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Kurzweil said he believes humans will be enhanced by technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 15 Sep 2022 | Seven years before 2022, world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to reduce inequality by 2030. Bill Gates · Factual · 15 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 12 Sep 2022 | Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children under 5. Bill Gates · Factual · 12 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 8 Sep 2022 | Bill Gates has met Queen Elizabeth II. Bill Gates · Factual · 8 Sep 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 8 Sep 2022 | Germany's increased pledge to the Global Fund will help save millions of lives. Bill Gates · Prediction · 8 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Superbubbles first form, then suffer a setback with valuations taking a half-step back, as occurred in the first half of 2022. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | In the final stage, fundamentals will deteriorate and the market will decline to a low. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Markets have just seen the bear market rally stage of the superbubble pattern. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 28 Aug 2022 | Jeff Bezos says his first job was at the burger chain shown in the post (McDonald's). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 25 Aug 2022 | There is more public support than ever before for taking big steps to avoid a climate disaster. Bill Gates · Factual · 25 Aug 2022 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 23 Aug 2022 | In 2021 Bill Gates laid out a plan for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Bill Gates · Factual · 23 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 18 Aug 2022 | Dr. Helene Gayle and Ashish Dhawan have decided to join the Gates Foundation's board. Bill Gates · Factual · 18 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 17 Aug 2022 | Eradicating malaria will be harder following the COVID-19 pandemic. Bill Gates · Prediction · 17 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 16 Aug 2022 | Mosquitoes need sugar more often than they need blood. Bill Gates · Factual · 16 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Aug 2022 | Tom Alberg was an early investor in Amazon and served on Amazon's board for 23 years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 4 Aug 2022 | Discover was still providing payment services to MindGeek as of 4 August 2022, despite Visa and Mastercard suspending theirs. Bill Ackman · Factual · 4 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2 Aug 2022 | Visa CEO Al Kelly had not been willing to appear on camera to address the allegations as of 2 August 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2 Aug 2022 | As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 | Other |
“if history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy.”
Jeremy Grantham, GMO cofounder, research note 31 August 2022 Jeremy Grantham: superbubble hasn't popped yet (Fortune)
If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Conditional, vague prediction with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets.” (said 31 August 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_56ee85836ddc, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_56ee85836ddc
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.