Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 56 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Some digital financial innovation is happening first in poor countries. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 There was no medical team ready to deploy to the Ebola outbreak. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Ebola does not spread through the air, and by the time people are contagious most are too sick to move about. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 GiveWell estimates about half of its 2014 expenses supported its traditional top charity work and about half the Open Philanthropy Project. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 A really good epidemic response system can be built. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 Of the 8,970 donors who gave to GiveWell's recommended charities in 2014, GiveWell knows where 3,558 (about 40%) learned of its work. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 2015 Bill Gates followed the Ebola outbreak closely using the case analysis tools used to track polio eradication. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 2015 The companies pioneering mobile banking find serving the poor profitable because the marginal cost of a digital transaction is near zero. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Famine in Africa will strike less often, and African countries will lead the response when it does. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 In presidential primaries, endorsements and party elite support tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success than early polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 A large epidemic would require hundreds of thousands of health workers. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do the other outbreak-related tasks the speaker had described. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 The measured donor retention of about one third may understate true retention because some donors are anonymous or share partial information. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 In 2014 the number of donors giving to GiveWell's recommended charities or GiveWell unrestricted rose 9% to about 9,300. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 Even this far out, national primary polls have some correlation with outcomes: a candidate near the top is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 During the Ebola outbreak there was no epidemic response system at all, rather than one that worked poorly. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education will open new opportunities for girls with the means and motivation to use it. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 GiveWell believes it tracked the majority of donations it influenced in 2014, though the amount of donations it is uncertain about is larger than in past years. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual 2015 A pitcher's high school statistics do not reveal very much, and their predictive power tends to be swamped by other indicators. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 As high-speed cell networks grow and smartphones become as cheap as voice-only phones, online education will flourish. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2015 In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online courses will become a global asset available to anyone with a smartphone or tablet. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 2015 Ebola case reports came in on paper, were put online with long delay, and were extremely inaccurate. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 The next epidemic might not be contained by luck as Ebola was. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2015 GiveWell guesses about 50% of the $1.9 million in unattributed 2014 donations to AMF were influenced by GiveWell, and did not include this in money moved. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 About 15 years before 2015, online education amounted to little more than filming a university lecturer and recording. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Traditional portfolio construction in modern financial theory has operated under at least one of two assumptions: constraints derived from a utility function and/or a fully known multivariate distribution of asset returns. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 The paper derives the shape of portfolio distributions that have maximum entropy subject to real-world left-tail constraints and other expectations. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 In practice, risk-taking agents are mandated to build portfolios by primarily constraining the tails of portfolio returns to satisfy VaR, stress testing, or expected shortfall (CVaR) conditions. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Under the paper's construction, the barbell payoff (maximal certainty/low risk on one side, maximum uncertainty on the other) emerges naturally. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Risk-taking agents building portfolios under tail constraints are largely ignorant about the remaining properties of the return probability distributions. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Under the paper's maximum-entropy derivation, left-tail constraints are powerful enough to override other considerations in conventional theory, making individual portfolio components of limited relevance. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks robots will increasingly be part of the community of connected objects. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks that, in the coming decades, work will be a collaboration between robots and people rather than robots doing everything. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 All software doing motion planning now is developed by people other than Brooks. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Delivered on time Rodney Brooks Promise 16 Dec 2014 Starting in 2015, Rethink Robotics will provide APIs allowing developers to improve Baxter. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Labour costs were rising and the era of infinitely cheap labour was coming to an end. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 The smallest US customer of Brooks's company that uses industrial robots is a nine-person company in Tennessee. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he did not think robots over the next fifty, or even a hundred, years would be able to do everything, and that people would see more and more collaboration with machines during their lifetimes. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks has recently learned JavaScript. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks the future will be made of collaboration, speaking about factory work and an ageing factory workforce. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks no longer touches the product directly but takes part in prototyping that he shows to the engineers. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks first presented his 1986 layered-architecture work in France. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 For the Roomba, the target price was chosen first and the design was based on it. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Rethink Robotics does not have all of those disciplines (neurobiology, ethology, psychophysics, sociology) but bases its work on user experience. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 The first industrial robots were installed in 1961, when a computer filled an entire room. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks managed to build his first robot at age sixteen. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Baxter uses some parts of Brooks's earlier research work, but less intensively than research laboratories do. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Many Rethink Robotics factory customers use low-cost 3D printers to print new grippers to replace Baxter's original hands. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 The Implicit Association Test is one of the ways we know racism is a giant all-encompassing social factor. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander said he already expects this post will be used as convenient material to fling at the Blue Tribe. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 In every US election cycle, liberals give unconvincing denials of the accusation that they are not sufficiently pro-America. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 The Nazis' outgroup was the almost-identical German Jews rather than the culturally distant Japanese. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Heritability of attitudes toward gay rights is estimated at 0.3 to 0.5, slightly higher than the heritability of homosexuality. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 In every US election cycle, conservatives accuse liberals of not being sufficiently pro-America. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 In a Reddit thread of 10,401 comments asking for people against gay marriage, the author found only two commenters who opposed it, near the bottom. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Social 'tribes' such as Blue and Red Tribe will turn out to be stronger categories than political affiliation. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander's hunch is that both the Red Tribe and the Blue Tribe identify "America" with the Red Tribe. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Researchers have studied belief congruence theory, that belief differences matter more than demographics in forming in-groups and outgroups, for decades. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander is a psychiatrist by profession. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Every one of the cited articles criticizing America was written by an American and read almost entirely by Americans. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 The worst reaction Scott Alexander got to a blog post was to his post about the death of Osama bin Laden. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 21 Jul 2014 Ackman told CNBC's Halftime Report that his side had hundreds of hours of internal video and some internal documents given to them by some employees. Bill Ackman · Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Bill Ackman Factual 21 Jul 2014 Herbalife's so-called nutritional clubs are not places where people get together to talk about losing weight. Bill Ackman · Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 21 Jul 2014 Allergan's reported earnings growth is not driven by an increase in revenue growth. Bill Ackman · Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 10 Jul 2014 Gaming is the single biggest digital life category in a mobile-first world, measured in both time and money spent. Satya Nadella · Factual · 10 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 Technology spend as a total percentage of GDP will grow with the digitization of nearly everything in life and work. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 10 Jul 2014 Microsoft was founded on the belief that technology creates opportunities for people and organizations, by putting a PC on every desk and in every home. Satya Nadella · Factual · 10 Jul 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Promise 10 Jul 2014 Microsoft will announce its earnings results for the past quarter on July 22, 2014, and Nadella will say more then about what Microsoft is doing in FY15 to focus on its core. Satya Nadella · Promise · 10 Jul 2014 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Satya Nadella Promise 10 Jul 2014 During July 2014, Nadella and Microsoft's Senior Leadership Team will share more about the engineering and organization changes they believe are needed. Satya Nadella · Promise · 10 Jul 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual 10 Jul 2014 With Azure, Microsoft is one of very few cloud vendors that runs at hyper-scale. Satya Nadella · Factual · 10 Jul 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 15 May 2014 Theoretical results suggest that learning good parameters for a small neural network can be as computationally hard as breaking RSA. Yann LeCun · Factual · 15 May 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 15 May 2014 The notions of partition functions, entropy, free energy and variational methods prevalent in the graphical models literature come from statistical physics. Yann LeCun · Factual · 15 May 2014 Science and research methods
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Bill Gates

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Prediction Other global risks

“We predict that the next 15 years will see the pace of these developments increase even faster.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)

Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past.” (said 2015). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_55e91dc238bd, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_55e91dc238bd

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.