Claims

Factual · Other

“But in 2025, they went up for the first time this century, from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025—an increase driven by less support from rich countries to poor countries.”

Bill Gates, author of his annual letter · 9 January 2026 · Read Bill Gates's 2026 annual letter in full (Fortune)

Deaths of children under 5 rose for the first time this century, from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025, driven by less support from rich to poor countries.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

The claim has three parts: (a) estimated global under-5 deaths rose from about 4.6 million in 2024 to about 4.8 million in 2025; (b) this was the first year-on-year increase since 2000; (c) the rise was driven by reduced development or health aid from rich countries. True: the published estimates (IHME, Gates Foundation Goalkeepers, UN IGME) show all three parts, with figures within about ±0.1 million, and the estimating source attributes the rise mainly to aid cuts. Mostly true: the rise and the 'first this century' status hold, but a figure is off by a little more (up to ±0.2 million), or the source attributes the rise to aid cuts only as a main factor among several. Mixed: an increase is reported, but the 'first this century' part fails, or the aid-cut explanation is unsupported or disputed by independent estimates. Mostly false: the estimates show deaths flat or a rise driven clearly by other causes, or the claimed rise appears only as a projection and is contradicted by later estimates. False: authoritative estimates show under-5 deaths fell in 2025.

Evidence

1. 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “In 2024, 4.6 million children died before their fifth birthday. In 2025, that number is projected to rise for the first time this century, by just over 200,000, to an estimated 4.8 million children.”

2. 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “The 13 health indicators we track with our partner, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), incorporate the projected impact of potential health funding reductions, assuming a 20% reduction to Development Assistance for Health in 2026 compared to 2024 funding levels.”

3. With Child Deaths Projected to Rise for the First Time This Century, Gates Foundation Urges Global Leaders to Target Scarce Resources Where They Save the Most Lives Gates Foundation · 3 December 2025 Own record

   “According to modeling in the report, conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), that number is projected to rise by just over 200,000—to an estimated 4.8 million children this year.”

4. Levels and trends in child mortality 2025 - UNICEF DATA UNICEF DATA, UN Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) · 17 March 2026

   “In 2024, the world lost an estimated 4.9 million children before their fifth birthday, alongside 2.1 million deaths among older children, adolescents and youth.”

5. 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “In 2024, 4.6 million children died before their fifth birthday. In 2025, that number is projected to rise for the first time this century, by just over 200,000, to an estimated 4.8 million children.”

6. 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “The 13 health indicators we track with our partner, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), incorporate the projected impact of potential health funding reductions, assuming a 20% reduction to Development Assistance for Health in 2026 compared to 2024 funding levels.”

7. Estimates that cannot fail visibly: a current debate on measuring child mortality as household surveys contract PubMed Central (single-author academic article) · 26 October 2026

   “In 2024, an estimated 4.9 million children died before their fifth birthday, 2.3 million of them in the neonatal period”

8. Estimates that cannot fail visibly: a current debate on measuring child mortality as household surveys contract PubMed Central (single-author academic article) · 26 October 2026

   “Collaboration may since have narrowed the gap, but agreement between models fed largely the same data is not evidence that either is right; I know of no later decomposition.”

9. Child deaths projected to rise for first time this century, as aid cuts reverse decades of progress | CNN CNN · 4 December 2025

   “Child mortality around the world is projected to reach an estimated 4.8 million deaths in 2025, an increase of 200,000 preventable deaths compared with last year,”

10. Child deaths projected to rise for first time this century, as aid cuts reverse decades of progress | CNN CNN · 4 December 2025

    “There are many causes, but clearly one of the key causes has been significant cuts in international development assistance from a number of high-income countries,”

11. Levels & Trends in Report 2025 Child Mortality - UNICEF DATA UNICEF / UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) · 30 October 2026

    “The number of global under-five deaths was 4.9 (4.7–5.2) million in 2024 (Figure 1 and Table 1),”

12. Progress in reducing child deaths slows as 4.9 million children die before age five World Health Organization · 18 March 2026

    “Child deaths continue to decline globally, though updated data and improved methods mean this round’s estimates are slightly higher than reported the previous year.”

Reasoning

The 2025 rise to 4.8 million appears only as a Gates/IHME projection (E1, E3), which CNN repeats (E9). The independent UN IGME estimates put 2024 deaths at 4.9 million rather than 4.6 million (E4, E11, E12), and no item gives a 2025 estimate. No evidence item shows the estimating source attributing the rise to aid cuts: the CNN quote names no speaker (E10), and E2 refers only to assumed funding reductions in 2026.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Deaths of children under 5 rose for the first time this century, from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025, driven by less support from rich to poor countries.” (said 9 January 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_53003650b4ae, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_53003650b4ae