Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Actual worldwide revenue from eVTOL taxi flights in 2025 was zero. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 A single human care-giver along with one human-manipulator robot could provide a lot more care for a frail elderly person than the… Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Waymo looks to have a shot at succeeding and is unlikely to lose first place in the self driving taxi race. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Just phenomenal unmatched reliability and performance. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 Above I had argued against do this with a general purpose humanoid hand. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 With suction grippers, the control of the embodied action of grasping can become much more a simply situated action. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next 10 years the winning quantum computers will be those solving real problems in materials science, chemistry and physics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin may make a soft landing on the Moon in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 LLMs that can explain which data led to which outputs will be key to deployments that are not annoying, dangerous or stupid. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not researched Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin's 2030 lunar mission architecture uses in-flight refueling, as SpaceX's does, but with far fewer launches. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 If any other company wants to compete with Waymo or Zoox, even in cities where they do not operate, it is going to need a lot of capital. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 To an outside observer it looks like level 4, but it is somewhat less than that in reality. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not checkable Rodney Brooks Not checkable 1 Jan 2026 I think the key idea with this option is to remove the need for any in flight refueling for the first crewed landing. Rodney Brooks · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2026
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In 2026 humanoid domestic robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos with very little actual product. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Neurosymbolic AI is starting to rise in prominence. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Although valuations may rise before falling, the September Oracle craze and subsequent events will in hindsight be seen as the beginning of the end of the AI bubble. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Gary Marcus does not expect his 2026 predictions to be as on target as his 2025 predictions were. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable Jan 2026 across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to… Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Few AI companies aside from Nvidia are making a profit, and no AI company has much of a technical moat. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 No country will take a decisive lead in the generative AI race in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 2025 will be remembered as the year of the peak AI bubble and the moment Wall Street began losing confidence in generative AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Trump may eventually distance himself from AI because of the backlash. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 In 2025 no AI system solved more than 4 (or perhaps any) of the Marcus-Brundage tasks. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable Jan 2026 If anything would lead to genuine progress, it would be that. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026
Not researched Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 OpenAI has lost a lot of its lead over competitors in AI. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic AI will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 By Gary Marcus's own count, sixteen of his seventeen high-confidence predictions about 2025 proved correct. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 (or 2027). Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable Jan 2026 LLMs still aren’t reliable; the economics look dubious. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable Jan 2026 Astonishing how much the vibe has shifted in just a few months, especially with people like Sutskever and Sutton coming out with their own… Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Backlash to generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Gary Marcus Not checkable Jan 2026 At this point I doubt many people would publicly disagree, but just a few months ago the world was rather different. Gary Marcus · Not checkable · Jan 2026
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 "The Communist Party of China is not going to listen to the pope," Thiel said, according to Politico. "There's a chance people in the US… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 don't do tomorrow what you can save for the day after. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 even 5 or 10% seems pretty bad Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 it wouldn't be me, Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 Anthropic decided not to put ads in Claude, a decision partly based on the belief that AI technology is different because of how personal user conversations are. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 The founders considered the name "Sparrow Systems" before choosing Anthropic. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 He went further, telling Döpfner that the pope was "at least acting as a useful idiot for the CCP," Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 extremely hard to catch up Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 Anthropic is open about the fact that its models sometimes make things up. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Marc Andreessen Not checkable 2026 You don’t want to put it in a cage. Nor do you want to let it run completely free. But you want it free-range. Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 A lot of people use Claude for medical questions. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2026 Thiel said that in theory AI could be slowed with genuine, deep cooperation across the whole world, but that he thinks this would require something like a one world government with real teeth and real force. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2026 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Marc Andreessen Not checkable 2026 And then the most important question thereafter, as Andy Grove put it, is, who is going to let chaos reign, and then rein in the chaos? Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Marc Andreessen Not checkable 2026 One of the best tells that a technology will actually change the world is, ‘Does it make a chaotic entrance?’ Marc Andreessen · Not checkable · 2026
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2026 the alternative of zero progress is "far from neutral," Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2026
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 Amodei said she thought, as she was remembering it, that some early model names were bird names, and gave BERT as an example. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Michael Burry Not checkable 2026 more like 2000 than any time since, but not 2000 yet. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 2026
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 The founders named the company Anthropic after rejecting bird-themed name ideas. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 28 Dec 2025 Exit California. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 28 Dec 2025
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 27 Dec 2025 California, the physical platform on which "it" is built, is collapsing; the surrounding text does not say what "it" refers to. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 27 Dec 2025 Other global risks
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 26 Dec 2025 And the latter is the hard part. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 26 Dec 2025 Alternative thesis: prompting is programming. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 25 Dec 2025 So the rise is invisible, despite being all too visible. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Dec 2025 Western states will eventually become so dysfunctional that they effectively cease to exist, after which a new era begins. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Dec 2025 Other global risks
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 25 Dec 2025 Notably absent: places like Warsaw, Dubai, Riyadh, Shenzhen, Bangalore, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, and Shanghai. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 24 Dec 2025 The technologist is the capitalist of the 21st century. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 24 Dec 2025
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 Tech money is the one thing keeping some of the economies of cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago, LA and Boston afloat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Not researched Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 Inflation is boosting US homeowners' property taxes without increasing their resale value. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 22 Dec 2025 American real estate will become more affordable only for those outside the rapidly inflating dollar economy, living abroad or holding hard currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 Add to that the corruption of a failed state that takes infinite taxes but can't stop endless fires, and you get the Pacific Palisades. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 Powerful factions (NIMBYs, boomers) do not want US real estate to go down in real terms. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not researched Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 The new BYD chargers add 400km of range in five minutes. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Technology
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 Electric vehicles now fill up roughly as fast as gasoline vehicles. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Technology
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 But all of those forces (libertarian, left, and right) want to bring the real price of real estate down. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 Billions of dollars in California real estate lie fallow because of eroded property rights. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 very similar to what happened in Russia in the 90s after the end of the Soviet Empire. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 And real estate is really not very safe in a failed state. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not researched Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 US real estate has been dropping in real terms, measured against a basket of Internet currencies and Internet companies. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 22 Dec 2025 Gold can be stopped at TSA metal detectors. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 22 Dec 2025 The compromise outcome may be that the nominal value of US real estate rises through money printing while the real value of the dollar falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Not researched Balaji Srinivasan Citation 22 Dec 2025 The Case-Shiller index shows US real estate at the top of a nominal bubble larger than the 2008 crisis peak. Balaji Srinivasan · Citation · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 Safety came from getting outside the system, from exiting the failing system. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 Guns are only truly useful when the state fails, in genuine Mad Max scenarios. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not checkable Balaji Srinivasan Not checkable 22 Dec 2025 This is the EV flippening. Balaji Srinivasan · Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 You might be in a computer. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Nobody’s perfect. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 People are posting pictures of when they’re really happy. They’re modifying those pictures to be better looking. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Usually 200 or 250 miles is fine. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 And nobody looks good all the time. Doesn’t matter who you are. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 It seems like they should really recalibrate that because if it’s always fast, you could just delete those minutes. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 And I think really most people are actually pretty good people. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 So being in a tunnel is being in a submarine. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Electric airplane isn’t necessary right now. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 It’s not necessarily a doomsday countdown. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 You could have 100 levels of tunnel, no problem. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 I mean, you should try Model S P100D. It’ll blow your mind or your skull. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Because people generally think of themselves relative to others. We are constantly re-baselining our expectations. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 That could be quite a positive outcome for the future. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 At least our car doesn’t crash. That’s better. It’s better not to crash. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Yeah, well, happiness is reality minus expectations. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 if you’re a prosecutor, you should not always want to win. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 Living on the edge without a case. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
Not checkable Elon Musk Not checkable 19 Dec 2025 I don’t know what would happen if I got into a sensory deprivation tank. Elon Musk · Not checkable · 19 Dec 2025
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Gary Marcus

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“across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to one that is more fluid, more realistic, and more open-minded.”

Gary Marcus, author January 2026 Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist (Marcus on AI)

across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to…” (said January 2026). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_504e8ccccf03, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_504e8ccccf03

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.