6,750 claims · page 11 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | Amodei said she thought, as she was remembering it, that some early model names were bird names, and gave BERT as an example. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2026 | The founders named the company Anthropic after rejecting bird-themed name ideas. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 27 Dec 2025 | California, the physical platform on which "it" is built, is collapsing; the surrounding text does not say what "it" refers to. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 27 Dec 2025 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 25 Dec 2025 | Western states will eventually become so dysfunctional that they effectively cease to exist, after which a new era begins. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Dec 2025 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Tech money is the one thing keeping some of the economies of cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago, LA and Boston afloat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 22 Dec 2025 | American real estate will become more affordable only for those outside the rapidly inflating dollar economy, living abroad or holding hard currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Electric vehicles now fill up roughly as fast as gasoline vehicles. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Billions of dollars in California real estate lie fallow because of eroded property rights. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2025 | Gold can be stopped at TSA metal detectors. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2025 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 22 Dec 2025 | The compromise outcome may be that the nominal value of US real estate rises through money printing while the real value of the dollar falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 14 Dec 2025 | China has many cities that specialize in specific products, such as Cixi for hair dryers, Wenzhou for lighters and Ningbo for home appliances. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 14 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Dec 2025 | In that failed state, the combination of targeted violence and untargeted anarchy will get much worse. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Dec 2025 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Dec 2025 | It has been reported that the Western left's shift toward abstract expressionism and deconstructionism was partially sponsored by the CIA. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Dec 2025 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 11 Dec 2025 | Anti-technology sentiment will become the new anti-capitalism, with Kaczynski as its leading thinker in the 21st century. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Dec 2025 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | The UK continues to deindustrialize, and London's standing as a financial centre was hurt by 2008, Brexit and superior innovations elsewhere. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | The UK's human capital (through brain drain) and its matching of market demands have both declined in recent times. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | In Cowen's view, weak human capital and mismatch with market demand are the biggest reasons the UK is currently in economic trouble. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 6 Dec 2025 | Institutions matter and, in addition to their usual effects, will shape both of the factors Cowen labels #1 and #2 over the longer run. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | Countries' growth rates in one decade are not very predictive of their growth rates in subsequent decades. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | Growth theories giving predominant weight to institutions predict much more serial correlation of growth rates than is found in the data. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 6 Dec 2025 | An increasing number of smart Britons are leaving the UK for the US or Dubai. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 6 Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Dec 2025 | If frontier AI models plateau, on-device inference and open source models could fully catch up to them. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Dec 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Dec 2025 | Tech unicorn founders are much rarer than professional athletes. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Dec 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Michael Burry | Factual | Dec 2025 | Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech. Michael Burry · Factual · Dec 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Factual | Dec 2025 | Tae wrote the book The Nvidia Way. Michael Burry · Factual · Dec 2025 | Technology |
| Mixed | Michael Burry | Factual | Dec 2025 | Former Stanford colleagues of Michael Burry run Palo Alto Investors, which has focused almost entirely on biomed and medtech for almost three decades. Michael Burry · Factual · Dec 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Promise | Dec 2025 | Michael Burry said in early December 2025 that he was still working on "that story", which he described as "more like 2008" than he first thought, and hoped to post it in the next few weeks. Michael Burry · Promise · Dec 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 30 Nov 2025 | In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Nov 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | Structural insights on the honeybee immunity protein Vitellogenin, obtained with AlphaFold, are being applied to conservation of endangered bees and AI-assisted breeding programs. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | In 2022, Google DeepMind released AlphaFold 2 predictions for more than 200 million protein structures. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 25 Nov 2025 | The speakers said they expect AlphaFold 3, developed together with Isomorphic Labs, to drive a transformation of the drug discovery process and usher in an era of "digital biology". Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 25 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | The AlphaFold Server has helped make more than 8 million folds for thousands of researchers worldwide. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | The AlphaFold Server is available to non-commercial researchers globally for predicting structures and interactions. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | AlphaProteo can design novel, high-strength protein binders targeting diverse molecules, including ones associated with cancer and diabetes. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Science and research methods |
| Mixed | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 25 Nov 2025 | Protein misfolding can cause loss of function and lead to diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 25 Nov 2025 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 19 Nov 2025 | Scion Asset Management's most recent incarnation was essentially a friends-and-family fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 19 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 19 Nov 2025 | Burry did not market Scion Asset Management like most funds and did not try to grow assets by acquiring investors he did not already know. Michael Burry · Factual · 19 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 19 Nov 2025 | Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets. Michael Burry · Factual · 19 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Factual | 12 Nov 2025 | Credit and liquidity are abundant and credit spreads are near record lows. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 12 Nov 2025 | The top destination for Indian talent may shift to the UAE and Middle East, with Singapore possibly second. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 12 Nov 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Nov 2025 | QE-type liquidity would typically push real yields down, push P/E multiples up, and especially boost valuations of long-duration assets (tech, AI, growth) and inflation hedges such as gold. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Ray Dalio | Factual | 12 Nov 2025 | The Federal Reserve announced that it will stop quantitative tightening (QT) and begin quantitative easing (QE). Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Factual | 12 Nov 2025 | Asset valuations are at highs and rising. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 12 Nov 2025 | When the Fed or other central banks buy bonds, it creates liquidity and pushes real interest rates down. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett said that after Stan built the paper's new Sunday product, Berkshire's newspaper, which had been losing cash, earned over 100% annually pre-tax on Berkshire's $33 million investment for some years. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Promise | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett will keep writing an annual Thanksgiving message to Berkshire shareholders. Warren Buffett · Promise · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett's children and the Berkshire directors are fully supportive of Greg Abel as CEO. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett and Charlie Munger several times encountered a CEO's debilitating disease and failed to act. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Warren Buffett | Promise | 10 Nov 2025 | Greg Abel will become Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive at the end of 2025. Warren Buffett · Promise · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Berkshire's stock price has fallen about 50% three times in 60 years under present management. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 9 Nov 2025 | The Bitcoin-to-gold exchange rate may become the true price (benchmark) of Bitcoin. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 9 Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Compute demand for AI training and inference is accelerating and compounding, with each growing exponentially. Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | Nov 2025 | In 2025 there was a massive boom in AI-related investment in the US, while policy-induced uncertainty and disruptions to official data releases clouded the economic picture. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | Nov 2025 | Putting AI into physical objects that move around the world will bring closer an integrated intellectual and physical experience. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | Nov 2025 | The longest-ever US government shutdown disrupted official employment and inflation data, further clouding policymakers' perceptions. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | The AI ecosystem is scaling fast, with more foundation model makers, AI startups, industries and countries. Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | Nov 2025 | Robots with AI will be able to gather much more real-world data. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | Nov 2025 | Despite a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025, uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs and other policies curtailed US growth in the second half of the year. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | Nov 2025 | The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Nov 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | Nov 2025 | He is pretty convinced that AI models will clear the bar of human-level creativity. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Oct 2025 | By 2035 the economy will be hugely deflationary. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | Olaf Carlson-Wee sees network states speed-running the path from bare land to Dubai and Singapore. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 12 Oct 2025 | If the West's debt proves unfixable and the West falls, the Internet would endure. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 12 Oct 2025 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | Jacqueline Poh runs JTC, which is Singapore's $40B real estate arm. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | The Solana network state recently negotiated with governments for a measure of diplomatic recognition. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | In a Network State Conference 2023 talk, Garry recommended building parallel systems, particularly in media and academia, to replace dysfunctional unelected parts of the legacy system. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | In 2024 Balaji Srinivasan held a conversation with Bryan Johnson comparing their paths, which led to similar conclusions. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | The Internet is the only thing with global economic scale comparable to China. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 12 Oct 2025 | The Internet's digital legal system de facto manages about 99% of global communications and transactions. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 12 Oct 2025 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 8 Oct 2025 | ChatGPT is today a better doctor than your doctor, with almost a hundred percent certainty. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 8 Oct 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 8 Oct 2025 | If AI produced hyper-acceleration of productivity, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 8 Oct 2025 | AI-driven employment shifts will not happen at anywhere near the velocity people expect. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 8 Oct 2025 | A significant percentage of U.S. jobs are licensed, unionized or civil service in a way that means they cannot literally be replaced. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 8 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | A past bubble, in which the companies as a group lost money, still produced a couple of life-saving drugs. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | The benefits to society from AI will be gigantic. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | The companies that laid fiber optic cable during the Internet bubble went out of business, going bankrupt. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | Within roughly 10 to 20 years, giant gigawatt-scale data centers will start being built in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | As Amazon's stock price fell from 113 to 6, its number of customers rose every month. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Jeff Bezos | Promise | 6 Oct 2025 | Blue Origin will launch its New Glenn vehicle at the end of October or the first week of November 2025, sending NASA's Escapade satellite into orbit around Mars. Jeff Bezos · Promise · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | Computers can currently easily beat humans at chess. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | Within the next couple of decades, space-based data centers will be able to beat the cost of terrestrial data centers. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | The fiber optic cable laid by the bankrupt companies remained in place and was later used. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | AI will change every industry. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | Within the next couple of decades, millions of people will be living in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Jeff Bezos | Promise | 6 Oct 2025 | Blue Origin is building a hydrogen-powered lunar lander that will land on the moon in a few years. Jeff Bezos · Promise · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | In 2000, when the Internet bubble burst, Amazon stock fell in a short period from $113 a share to $6 a share. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | During Amazon's 2000 stock decline, it was still loss-making but its losses as a percentage of sales fell every month. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | During Amazon's 2000 stock decline, its gross profits rose every month. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | AI will raise the quality and productivity of every company. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 6 Oct 2025 | AI will affect every company in the world. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 3 Oct 2025 | Jeff Bezos started Amazon when he was 30 years old. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 3 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 3 Oct 2025 | Amazon and Blue Origin are careful to keep their mavericks. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 3 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 3 Oct 2025 | Jeff Bezos finished college. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 3 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 29 Sep 2025 | OpenAI's buildout will also have to be funded by its capital, namely equity and debt it can raise. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | 29 Sep 2025 | NVIDIA contributes more open source software than almost any company in the world except one other (possibly AI2). Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Sep 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 29 Sep 2025 | The roughly $400 billion cost of OpenAI's 10 gigawatts will have to be largely funded by OpenAI's revenues from offtake. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 29 Sep 2025 | In the future, data processing now run on CPUs (such as SQL on structured data) will move to AI data processing. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Promise | 29 Sep 2025 | NVIDIA will very soon announce a very big initiative on accelerated data processing. Jensen Huang · Promise · 29 Sep 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
““Even if it played out, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices, which is the thing that people miss,””
Marc Andreessen, investor, podcast guest 8 October 2025 Billionaire investor Marc Andreessen says AI destroying jobs is a 'fallacy' (Fortune)
If AI produced hyper-acceleration of productivity, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
Hypothetical conditional about a scenario that hasn't occurred.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “If AI produced hyper-acceleration of productivity, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices.” (said 8 October 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3fad16fd9084, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3fad16fd9084
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.