Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

1,191 claims · page 12 of 12

1,191 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The human brain is not end-user-modifiable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Generations of investigators tried and failed to understand stars, chemistry and biology, which acquired a reputation of being impossible for science. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Utilities are currently forced to take the power the subject was discussing (power he said nobody needs at night), which he described as really just a tax. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Strong government signals in Europe have made a big difference in advancing renewables there. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Geothermal power works extremely well in certain regions. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed there had been relatively little controversy over cellulosic ethanol, and that most of the controversy had focused on corn ethanol. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed a massive amount of PR money was being funded by various oil interests, including oil companies and the American Petroleum Institute. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 There are scientists who are not paid by anybody who believe climate change does not exist, though the speaker immediately added that "plenty" was a bit of a stretch. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Science and research methods
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 For the first 15 years solar photovoltaic cells were built, they took far more energy to produce than was ever got out of them in their lifetime. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 For every person in the world who has access to this technology, five people do not. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 7 Jun 2007 After being told to come back in a month, Bill Gates worked day and night on a software project that he said ended his college education and began his journey with Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 In May 2006 emerging markets declined by 25% in three weeks, during what was fundamentally their best year in history. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 People estimate the probability of an event from how easily they can recall examples. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Violence has declined over long stretches of history, and today is probably the most peaceful time in human history. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The process of visualizing a triangular light bulb is not really open to human introspection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 Leo Strauss believes there is a truth about human nature that can in principle be known to humanity. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 For Girard, a post-Darwinian account of humanity must somehow combine the gradualism of Darwinian evolution with the essentialism of the pre-Darwinians. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Under GOFAI and formal logic, the classical view of concepts treats abstraction as information loss. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Mostly true Warren Buffett Guidance 2007 After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Warren Buffett · Guidance · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 Thomas Hobbes boasted of having deserted and run away from fighting in a religious war. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Three color channels are not enough to discriminate between all natural surface reflectances. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jim Cramer Factual 15 Aug 2006 The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing. Jim Cramer · Factual · 15 Aug 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before December 2006 was about 20 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss with G_W(X)=W^T X and a ||W||^2 regularizer gives the linear support vector machine. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss systematically chooses the most offending incorrect answer as the one whose energy is pulled up. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Support vector Markov models, max-margin Markov networks and conditional random fields are all sequence modeling systems that use linearly parameterized energy factors. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry said the positions "we" are short are now effectively undercollateralized by performing mortgages, pointing to ratios of delinquent, bankrupt, foreclosed and REO loans to total credit support, several of which were above one. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 In a securitization, each trust is divided into tranches, each defined and rated by the degree of subordination protecting its principal from loss. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Elliott Carter's late short pieces are usually written for a very small number of instruments. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Over the ten years to 2004, Elliott Carter's reputation rose sharply. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 21 Mar 2004 War and other disruptions appear to damage capital income more than labor income. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 21 Mar 2004 Economics and markets
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Lead artist Brian Gillies wanted a shiny "atomic age" 1960s style for Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, the more the player gloats, the more notoriety is gained, and notoriety is key to progress. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Demis Hassabis first conceived the kernel of the idea for Evil Genius before Elixir Studios had started. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 We do not see extraterrestrial civilizations and have no indication of their existence, a challenge known as the Fermi paradox. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 There is progress in software, though its doubling factor is much slower than hardware's. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Faster-than-light effects seen in quantum disentanglement experiments transmit quantum randomness rather than information. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Historically Berkshire has obtained its insurance float at very low cost, with a cost below zero in about half the years it has operated. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the parent company level, Berkshire makes no charitable contributions except those designated by shareholders. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett will keep well over 99% of his net worth in Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The genome does not contain enough information to specify the brain down to the last synapse, and the brain is not completely shaped by sensory input either. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Twins separated at birth are no more different in intelligence and personality than twins raised together; growing up together does not make people more similar in the long run. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The connections Pinker draws in his new book between human nature and political systems were prefigured in Enlightenment debates and in the framing of the American Constitution. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Neuroscience has shown that our thoughts, feelings, urges and consciousness depend completely on the physiological activity of the brain. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 When Amazon started, it had a hard time raising its first $1 million, then obtained $8 million from venture capital. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's initial plan was to grow slowly and become profitable quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon expected $100 million in sales in its first five years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 By holiday 1999, some companies were raising $60 million with one phone call and spending it all in one quarter on advertising. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's practice of keeping most shoe production in domestic factories has cost its shoe businesses heavily. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's underwriting loss in 2000 produced a float cost of 6.1%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Because these transactions, which typically come in large chunks, can materially distort the company's figures, it will tell readers about them as they occur. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Chess champion Patrick Wolff will play blindfolded against all comers in the mall at the 2001 Berkshire meeting weekend. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire will hold its annual meeting at the Civic Auditorium on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Buffett and Charlie Munger will answer shareholder questions until 3:30 p.m. at the 2001 meeting, except for a noon break. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A computer can remember billions or trillions of facts perfectly, while humans struggle to remember a handful of phone numbers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Price performance of processing power is doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Technology
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The law of accelerating returns is based on a model of diverse technological processes that Kurzweil has developed over the past couple of decades. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Examining technology data in many ways and time scales shows at least double exponential growth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 30 Mar 1999 Linux and similar free software have proliferating different versions, because everybody can go into the source code, and everybody does. Bill Gates · Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's employee base grew from approximately 600 to over 2,100 during 1998. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 In 1997 Amazon.com substantially enhanced its online store, adding gift certificates, 1-Click shopping, and more reviews, content, browsing options and recommendation features. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 By the end of 1997 Amazon.com had served more than 1.5 million customers, with revenue up 838% to $147.8 million. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The Internet already existed when Andreessen began working at the university lab, and everybody there used it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The networks in question all use TCP/IP, which was not a government standard. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 In June 1995, Andreessen said he thought Netscape had about six million Navigator users on the public network, not counting users behind firewalls. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The Mosaic team designed Mosaic with end users as its target. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Internet access was never free; it always cost money. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Steven Pinker

Open its page

Factual Science and research methods

“Growing up together doesn't make you more similar in intelligence or in personality over the long run.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee 1 January 2002 A Biological Understanding of Human Nature (Edge.org)

Twins separated at birth are no more different in intelligence and personality than twins raised together; growing up together does not make people more similar in the long run.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that a shared family environment (growing up together) does not lastingly make people more similar in intelligence or personality. True: behavioural genetic research as of about 2002 (twin, adoption and reared-apart studies such as MISTRA and SATSA) shows the shared-environment contribution to adult IQ and personality to be near zero, and twins reared apart to be about as similar as twins reared together. Mostly true: the finding holds broadly, with a minor qualification (e.g. a small residual shared-environment effect, or the effect showing for IQ only by adulthood while it is substantial in childhood). Mixed: the evidence supports the claim for one trait (e.g. personality) but not the other. Mostly false: the research shows meaningful lasting shared-environment effects for most measures, and the claim generalises a narrow finding. False: the evidence shows that being reared together substantially and lastingly increases similarity in both traits.

Evidence

  1. Sources of Human Psychological Differences: The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science); authors Bouchard, Lykken, McGue, Segal, Tellegen · 12 October 1990
    “monozygotic twins reared apart are about as similar as are monozygotic twins reared together.”
  2. Sources of Human Psychological Differences: The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science); authors Bouchard, Lykken, McGue, Segal, Tellegen · 12 October 1990
    “(ii) the effect of being reared in the same home is negligible for traits.”
  3. Sources of Human Psychological Differences: The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science); authors Bouchard, Lykken, McGue, Segal, Tellegen · 12 October 1990
    “In any case, a significant contribution of shared environment is found for the personality trait of social closeness (31), and possibly religious interests and values (32).”
  4. Nature versus nurture WikiDoc · 4 September 2012
    “Moreover, adoption studies indicate that, by adulthood, adoptive siblings are no more similar in IQ than strangers (IQ correlation near zero), while full siblings show an IQ correlation of 0.6.”

Reasoning

The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart reports that identical twins raised apart are about as similar as identical twins raised together, and that being raised in the same home has a negligible effect on the traits it measured (E1, E2). A later secondary summary says adoption studies find adoptive siblings no more alike in adult IQ than strangers (E4). The same study also reports a significant shared-environment effect for the personality trait of social closeness, and possibly for religious interests and values (E3). That small exception fits the "mostly true" category in the criteria.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Twins separated at birth are no more different in intelligence and personality than twins raised together; growing up together does not make people more similar in the long run.” (said 1 January 2002). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_3dfd121ea3b9, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3dfd121ea3b9

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.