Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 The idea behind multi-stage Hubel-Wiesel architectures is rooted in Hubel and Wiesel's 1962 work on the cat's primary visual cortex. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 Science and research methods
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Global CO2 emissions have been constantly rising, only flattened somewhat by economic changes. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 2010 All batteries made now could store less than 10 minutes of the world's electrical energy use. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 2010 About 20% of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shares have been distributed to date, including shares given by his late wife Susan Buffett. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 None of Warren Buffett's pledged money will go to endowments; it will be spent on current needs. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 CO2 is warming the planet. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Geoengineering techniques could delay global heating by 20 or 30 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 2010 Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates are asking hundreds of rich Americans to pledge at least 50% of their wealth to charity. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2010 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 A face detection application on the CNP system was demonstrated achieving 10 fps on VGA images. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 More than 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth will go to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Promise 2010 At the latest, proceeds from all of Warren Buffett's Berkshire shares will be spent for philanthropic purposes within 10 years after his estate is settled. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Climate-driven crop failures will lead to starvation, uncertainty and unrest among the poorest. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mixed Yann LeCun Factual 2010 ConvNets have been successfully deployed in many commercial applications from OCR to video surveillance, but require large amounts of labeled training samples. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 Convolutional Networks are a biologically inspired trainable architecture that can learn invariant features. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2010 A big advantage of ConvNets for detection is their computational efficiency. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Burning coal cannot bring CO2 emissions to zero. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 The IPCC report does not necessarily represent the worst case for climate change. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Global temperature will keep rising until CO2 emissions get near zero. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 In many problems labeled data is scarce whereas unlabeled data is abundant. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Today's nuclear reactors are constantly refueled, requiring many people and controls that can go wrong. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 The response to Grantham's revelation about resource scarcity and denial was nil, the first time since he started writing. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 Most if not all banks that engage in proprietary trading now gather information from their institutional clients and exploit it. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 GMO's neutral 65% equity position has been pulled back slightly to 62%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 All overpriced markets will eventually mean revert, leaving most institutions with withdrawal symptoms. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 In March 2009 GMO believed its quality overweight was a winning bet against the market over its seven-year horizon. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 GMO reinvested in March 2009 to be almost neutral in equities and recently took a few chips off the table. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 By 2006 the US CEO-to-average-worker pay ratio had risen to between 400/1 and 600/1. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 The October 2009 letter refers to underweighting emerging equity "last summer" just in time to avoid its two-month 40% freefall; the extracted text is jumbled, and it does not make clear whether this describes a move GMO made or one Grantham said it would have been good to make. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 As of October 2009 the size of the financial system continues to grow and shows every sign of being out of control. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 By failing to learn from the crisis, the US is probably condemning itself to another serious financial crisis in the not-too-distant future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 The body under discussion (referred to only as "it") did not rise to the occasion to limit the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 By 2007 the share had risen to 7.5% of GDP; the surrounding text also mentions a figure of 3%, but does not say what year it refers to or what sector the share describes. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he expected developed markets to grow moderately less fast, at about 2.25%, for the next chunk of time, and to look pretty anemic compared with emerging countries growing at twice that rate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 GMO's best forecast, for the 10 years ending October 2008, had a 1 in 100,000 chance of being just luck. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 Less than a year before October 2009, the banks behind that year's record bonus pool, estimated at about $23 billion, had been on the edge of a run on the bank. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 As the financial system grows it becomes a bigger drain on the rest of the economy and slows it down. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 GMO has over 70 seven-year forecast estimates since 1994 and every one ranked asset classes better than random. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he believed emerging market equities were well on the way to the 'emerging emerging bubble' he described about 18 months earlier, in his 1Q 2008 Quarterly Letter. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Without the measure Grantham was discussing, which the surrounding text does not name, "we shall surely fail again." Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 Quality stocks have slightly outperformed the market over the 40 years to 2009, per GMO's Exhibit 2. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Promise Oct 2009 GMO plans to post its entire set of forecasts to its website with some preliminary analysis of the results. Jeremy Grantham · Promise · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 In 1930 there was no extra liquidity flowing around and absolutely no moral hazard. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The US market will not need to fall below the February 2009 low of 666 in the coming decline. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 Goldman Sachs presents a potential hedge fund trade to clients as attractive because Goldman has already chosen to make that trade itself. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Oct 2009 In equity accounts GMO kept a massive overweight in quality stocks. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 1 May 2009 In the past, libertarians have made little progress in the political sphere. Peter Thiel · Factual · 1 May 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 1 May 2009 In America, people are imprisoned for using mild drugs, tortured by the government, and forced to bail out reckless financial companies. Peter Thiel · Factual · 1 May 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 1 May 2009 Thiel had hoped his essay on the limits of politics would provoke reactions, and it did. Peter Thiel · Factual · 1 May 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 1 May 2009 Voting is not under siege in America, but many other rights are. Peter Thiel · Factual · 1 May 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 Thiel has focused his efforts as entrepreneur and investor on new technologies, notably the Internet, that may create a new space for freedom. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Technology
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other global risks
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 The 2008-09 financial crisis was caused by too much debt and leverage, facilitated by a government that insured against moral hazards, and the response involves more debt, leverage and government. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 As a Stanford undergraduate, Thiel started a student newspaper that he says scored some limited victories, most notably in undoing speech codes instituted by the university. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 In America, people are imprisoned for using even very mild drugs, tortured by the government, and forced to bail out reckless financial companies. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 Enough people will live on seasteads (settlements on the oceans). Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 In the late 1990s, PayPal's founding vision centered on creating a new world currency free from all government control and dilution. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 13 Apr 2009 The last economic depression in the United States that did not result in massive government intervention was the collapse of 1920-21. Peter Thiel · Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Banks positioned themselves with no real upside and a lot of downside from black swans, receiving a little cash flow in exchange for bearing all the downside. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb warned that financial theories, financial-risk managers and quantitative finance practitioners were dangerous to society. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Humans do not understand black swans because genetically they did not evolve in an environment with many black swans. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb says that in The Black Swan he warned against some classes of risk people don't understand and against risk managers' tools that could not fully capture the properties of the world in which we live. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Before Europeans discovered Australia, Europeans had no reason to believe swans could be any colour other than white, and on seeing black swans they revised their beliefs. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 In the 1920s the German mark went from three marks to the dollar to three trillion marks to the dollar in a very short time. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mixed Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 The computer, the Internet and the laser were recent technological developments that came out of nowhere and were not understood when they appeared. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Technology
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 The Internet was not built to help people communicate in chat rooms; it began as a military application and evolved. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Technology
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb said the financial crisis occurred because people took many hidden risks, which meant a small blip could have massive consequences. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2009 In 2009, Taleb said that he probably had the best track record in existence at that time, because, comparatively, other people had disappeared. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 Greenspan and the Fed spoke of irrational exuberance in tech stocks in 1996 without acting, and after the tech bubble burst cut rates to 1%, then to zero after the housing bust. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will become utilities, run with the responsibility of a water company. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 US real home prices doubled between 1996 and 2006, whereas historically home prices never rose more than inflation. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will probably hold little risk on their balance sheets, with risks borne by individuals with capital using their own money. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 Roubini began worrying about the US economy and financial system in 2006 after seeing an unsustainable housing bubble in home prices and mortgages. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Unless banks hold less risk and risks are borne by individuals with their own capital, financial cycles will keep getting deeper each time. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 US housing quantities fell by 80% and home prices fell more than 25%, and prices were still falling at more than a 20% annualised rate in 2009. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 Roubini wrote about his concerns in summer 2006 and gave a speech to a few hundred International Monetary Fund staff in early September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2009 Bankers kept their bonuses in each past banking crisis while taxpayers bailed the banks out. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2009 The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2009 Taleb offers a protection package to clients and it works. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 The Fed's philosophy was to not act against asset bubbles on the way up, as hard to identify and dangerous to prick, but to ease aggressively after they burst. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 After the 1987 stock market crash the Fed eased aggressively, giving the impression it would rescue markets, leading to talk of a 'Greenspan put'. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 In 2006 people were sceptical of Roubini's predictions, talking instead of high growth, a Goldilocks economy and a gently deflating minor housing bubble. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2009 Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Nassim Taleb worked on Wall Street for close to two decades in trading and risk management of derivatives. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Today the entire banking system is dominated by a few very large banks, and almost all of them have the same exposures. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Nassim Taleb has been telling people that banks tend to sit on time bombs while convincing themselves they are conservative and nonvolatile. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Business schools teach portfolio theory to more than 100,000 students a year. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Field building and careers
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Taleb said that a point he had just made, which mentioned J.P. Morgan, turned out to be true with the Bear Stearns rescue. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 In the past the financial world had a diversified ecology in which banks went bust on a steady basis. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 The Dartmouth Proposal on AI makes no mention of building nice, good or benevolent AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Overconfidence is no longer noteworthy in the modern field but continues to show up in nearly any experiment allowing extreme probabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“My guess, though, is that the U.S. market will drop below fair value, which is a 22% decline”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author October 2009 Jeremy Grantham GMO letter 3Q 2009: Just Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again (Scribd)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

No horizon is given, so it is an open-ended prediction that could still occur.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3decf724c36d, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3decf724c36d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.