Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 42 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 29 Jul 2020 OpenAI has launched applications for its Fall 2020 Scholars program. Sam Altman · Factual · 29 Jul 2020 Field building and careers
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 22 Jul 2020 Altman said that "we" share concerns about bias and safety in language models, and that this is a big part of why "we" are starting off with a beta and have safety review before apps can go live. Sam Altman · Factual · 22 Jul 2020 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 9 Jul 2020 There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 Technology
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 8 Jul 2020 The deadline to apply for Apollo funding is the Saturday following 2020-07-08 (2020-07-11). Sam Altman · Factual · 8 Jul 2020 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 6 Jul 2020 As of July 2020, work on machine 'judgment' has not begun. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 6 Jul 2020 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 6 Jul 2020 AI systems doing reckoning will surpass human capability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 6 Jul 2020 Reckoning-type AI systems will have enormous scientific and economic impact. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 5 Jul 2020 The US spends the most in the world on healthcare, by far. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Jul 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 The United States and many other countries have spent trillions of dollars on sophisticated weaponry in past decades to counter uncertain threats. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In practically every location affected by COVID-19 there has been local or governmental action to mitigate the pandemic, as of July 2020. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 The dataset in reference 6 covers pandemics with fatalities above 1,000 and likely contains most, if not all, such pandemics. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction Jul 2020 The scale of the pandemic might change, but its tail properties will remain invariant. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction Jul 2020 If a pandemic is not taken seriously, it will likely run wild, given modern connectivity. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 For COVID-19 survivors, the illness is a large economic drain, from lost working hours alone, not counting hospitalization costs. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In the months before July 2020, waiting for better data about COVID-19 caused substantial delays, resulting in thousands of deaths and serious economic consequences. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In New York City, the rule of thumb is that a 15% drop in revenues is enough to make a restaurant shut permanently. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In the lognormal distribution used in the paper's Figure 1, 85% of observations fall below the mean. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In the analysis of reference 6, jackknifing and bootstrapping the pandemic fatality data gives a tail index α consistently below 1. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 The Netherlands builds and calibrates its dams and dykes on extreme sea levels, including those estimated by modelling the tail with extreme value theory, not on average sea level. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Other global risks
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 Pandemics are extremely fat-tailed events with potentially destructive tail risk. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In insurance, survival functions are never used for hedging; expected shortfalls are used instead. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 29 Jun 2020 A new economic history podcast launched by 29 June 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 27 Jun 2020 In Ozu's 1957 film Tokyo Twilight, the main characters randomly put on cloth masks. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 27 Jun 2020 Other
Own records only Scott Alexander Factual 24 Jun 2020 The New York Times reporter told Scott Alexander that his editor absolutely prohibited writing the story without Alexander's real name and that the reporter considered the story too important to drop. Scott Alexander · Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Factual 24 Jun 2020 Scott Alexander discussed with the New York Times reporter why he wanted his real name left out of the story, saying largely what he said in his public post. Scott Alexander · Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 17 Jun 2020 Tyler Cowen conducted a Conversations with Tyler interview with Rachel Harmon, released by 17 June 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 17 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 15 Jun 2020 A system that does not strive to create equal opportunity for all who can work and basic support for those who cannot will inevitably experience some form of revolution. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 15 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 12 Jun 2020 History shows the three most important forces are the debt/economic cycle, internal gaps in wealth, values and politics, and external conflicts when rising countries challenge the leading world power. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 11 Jun 2020 Tyler Cowen said he suspects the equilibrium flow of new monuments will fall, following what he described as a recent decrease in the stock of standing monuments. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 11 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 9 Jun 2020 Marginal Revolution University released a new video featuring Colin Camerer by 9 June 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Jun 2020 Emergent Ventures announced its ninth cohort of winners by 5 June 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 4 Jun 2020 Anima Anandkumar misrepresented private correspondence with Gary Marcus. Gary Marcus · Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 4 Jun 2020 History shows that during periods of heavy conflict, societies easily slip from orderly democracy into disorderly anarchy and then autocracy. Ray Dalio · Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 4 Jun 2020 Gary Marcus said that Sergey Brin, Larry Page and Elon Musk lead a "hall of shame" list of billionaires who have made no known charitable contributions to helping the world cope with Covid. Gary Marcus · Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 4 Jun 2020 George Mason University's reopening plan requires masks in all public spaces and provides them free. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 3 Jun 2020 Tyler Cowen conducted a Conversations with Tyler interview with Ashley Mears, released by 3 June 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 3 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 2 Jun 2020 Robust.AI is closed on 2 June 2020 in solidarity with those seeking justice and in memory of George Floyd. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2 Jun 2020 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 29 May 2020 Conor Friedersdorf interviewed Tyler Cowen, with the interview published by 29 May 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell shares its plans for the year each spring. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell staff may work remotely and GiveWell accommodates flexible work schedules, including flexible hours. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Field building and careers
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 Many of GiveWell's successful past hires came through the community of people who engage with its work. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Field building and careers
Mostly false GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 GiveWell hopes to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities in 2020, most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, but may have limited capacity due to COVID-19 work. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's investigation of a potential alcohol policy grant was delayed because the potential grantee shifted its focus to COVID-19 response. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 GiveWell will make additional COVID-19 response grants if it believes they are more cost-effective than the opportunities to which it would otherwise direct funds. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 As of 28 May 2020, GiveWell had made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Prediction 28 May 2020 Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. GiveWell · Prediction · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell made limited progress in 2019 in assessing public health regulation, a relatively new domain for it. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 After completing its alcohol policy grant investigation, GiveWell will reflect on what it has learned about public health regulation before deciding whether to do additional work in this area. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 The GiveWell post on 2020 plans does not include a complete accounting of everything GiveWell plans to do in 2020. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's plans laid out internally at the beginning of 2020 were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 In early 2020 GiveWell conducted research that led it to prioritize alcohol policy and pesticide suicide prevention and to deprioritize air pollution, tobacco and road safety. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 Dispensers for Safe Water is a GiveWell standout charity. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's marketing team is examining how users engage with the GiveWell website and where they may become confused or misinterpret its work. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell has paused work on public health regulation as of May 2020. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell does not typically focus on high-uncertainty, short-timeline reviews of funding opportunities. GiveWell · Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 24 May 2020 Numerous psychology tests show that the majority of people follow the lower-level decision path most of the time, leading to inferior decisions. Ray Dalio · Factual · 24 May 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 24 May 2020 Amihai Glazer has an account on Twitter as of May 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 24 May 2020 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 May 2020 Diana Kennedy is aged 95 and a new film about her is available online as of May 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 May 2020 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 20 May 2020 Tyler Cowen held a second Conversations with Tyler interview with Paul Romer, released by 20 May 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 20 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 19 May 2020 Ray Dalio and his wife, in agreement with Governor Lamont, are terminating their partnership with the State of Connecticut to help disengaged students through high school and into jobs. Ray Dalio · Factual · 19 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 15 May 2020 Tyler Cowen co-authored a piece with Garry Kasparov, published by May 2020. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 15 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 14 May 2020 Ray Dalio is often asked on social media for advice for young people and shared his top advice in May 2020. Ray Dalio · Factual · 14 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 13 May 2020 Ray Dalio has been sharing his answers to social media questions on a weekly basis in a compiled format. Ray Dalio · Factual · 13 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 12 May 2020 When the environment changes, as during the pandemic, many AI models start to break. Gary Marcus · Factual · 12 May 2020 AI capabilities
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 4 May 2020 Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates. Gary Marcus · Factual · 4 May 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 As of May 2020, US researchers are testing the Flinders-optimized flu vaccine on human subjects. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 Very often the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 As of 2020, researchers can simulate how small molecules interact with certain virtual or human proteins. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 Argonne National Lab used five of the world's most powerful supercomputers to narrow a billion molecules to a few thousand in the search for Covid-19 antivirals. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Kurzweil said he believes that by the end of the decade we will be able to realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 In the coming years, as AI simulation methods take off, researchers will be able to test all trillions of possible solutions to each health problem very quickly. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 AI simulations have the potential to test all trillions of drug possibilities with tens of thousands of simulated patients over simulated years, in hours or days. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 In 2019 researchers at Flinders University in Adelaide created a turbo-charged flu vaccine partly using an AI biology simulator that found drugs activating the human immune system. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Deploying an effective cure in weeks instead of a year could save tens of millions of lives in a future severe pandemic. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 AI and biotechnology can already be used to shorten the development time of a Covid-19 vaccine. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual May 2020 The actual number of theoretical drug possibilities is in the trillions. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · May 2020 Science and research methods
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 In April 2020 Microsoft Teams saw more than 200 million meeting participants in a single day, generating more than 4.1 billion meeting minutes. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft has made GitHub's core features free for teams of any size for the first time. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 30 Apr 2020 A piece on common sense in AI by John Pavlus includes some chortling and skepticism from Gary Marcus. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 AI capabilities
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft Teams supports meetings from 250 active participants up to live events of 100,000 attendees and streaming broadcasts, with new capabilities added each week. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Technology
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft Power Platform is used by more than 3.4 million citizen developers and business decision-makers. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 Microsoft Teams had more than 75 million daily active users, two thirds of whom shared, collaborated or interacted with files on Teams. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 Customers' growing digitization needs will be met with better pricing and better unit economics in cloud. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 A third phase will bring structural change, for example in telemedicine. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 Developers are collaborating on projects tracking the spread of COVID-19, implementing contact tracing and expanding access to personal protective equipment. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Technology
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2020 The number of organizations integrating third-party and line-of-business apps with Teams tripled in the two months to late April 2020. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 there were no therapies or vaccine for the coronavirus, despite years of warnings about bat-borne coronaviruses. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 Prices of housing, schools and hospitals have skyrocketed. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Technology
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 American manufacturing output is higher than ever. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 The last major innovation in K-12 education was Montessori, which traces back to the 1960s. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US cannot build nearly enough housing in cities with surging economic potential, causing skyrocketing housing prices such as in San Francisco. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
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GiveWell

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“As of the publication of this post, we’ve made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation.”

GiveWell, unsigned blog post 28 May 2020 GiveWell's plans for 2020 (The GiveWell Blog)

As of 28 May 2020, GiveWell had made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: GiveWell's records (grant pages, blog posts or grant lists) show that exactly three grants made by 28 May 2020 were for COVID-19 mitigation. Mostly true: the count is three, but there is a minor discrepancy in timing or in how one grant is classified (for example one grant was committed but not yet disbursed). Mostly false: the count by that date was clearly different, for example two or five. False: GiveWell's records show that no COVID-19 grants, or a very different number, had been made by that date.

Evidence

  1. Three grants in response to the COVID-19 pandemic - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 21 April 2020 Own record
    “We are excited to announce that we granted a total of $450,000 to support coronavirus-response projects run by Development Media International (DMI), IDinsight, and Yale professor Mushfiq Mobarak, respectively.”
  2. COVID-19 Effects on GiveWell GiveWell (attachment to ClearFund meeting of 2020-05-28) Own record
    “As of May 12th, we have made three grants to COVID-19-specific projects .”
  3. Grantmaking in Response to COVID-19 GiveWell · March 2021 Own record
    “We made three grants in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020: $200,000 to Development Media International, $150,000 to IDinsight, and $100,000 to the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale (Y-RISE).”

Reasoning

The resolution criteria rest on GiveWell's own records, and several consistent records show three COVID-19 grants. The April 2020 blog post announces three grants to DMI, IDinsight and Professor Mobarak (E1). A document for the 28 May 2020 meeting states three COVID-19-specific grants as of 12 May (E2). A March 2021 retrospective lists the same three April 2020 grants and no others before that date (E3).

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “As of 28 May 2020, GiveWell had made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation.” (said 28 May 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3b20c57a18eb, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3b20c57a18eb

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.