40 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 11 Nov 2024 | Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Jun 2024 | The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2024 | After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2023 | The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Ray Dalio | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Sep 2006 | New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 2001 | Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 | Science and research methods |
“The current crop of people will not try it.”
Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 6 April 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality (Dwarkesh Podcast)
The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
What would count as true or false
'Current crop' means leading AI developers as of April 2023: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind and Meta. 'Trying it' means filtering or curating training data toward benign or 'nice' examples, and training on that data, as a method of shaping model behaviour or values. True: none of these developers documented using or experimenting with such training-data filtering as an alignment or safety approach. Mostly true: the only cases are routine toxicity or quality filtering not presented as an alignment method. Mixed: only marginal or exploratory work by individual researchers at these labs. Mostly false: at least one leading developer published research testing the approach, without adopting it in production. False: one or more leading developers publicly documented using alignment- or safety-motivated pretraining-data filtering in their models or research.
Evidence
- Enhancing Model Safety through Pretraining Data Filtering Anthropic (alignment.anthropic.com) · 19 August 2025
“Using a classifier, we identified and removed potentially harmful information from the pretraining data and then pretrained models from scratch on the filtered dataset.”
- Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology Google DeepMind (arXiv technical report)
“we have endeavoured to safeguard against these risks by filtering and measuring biases in pre-training data in line with the Gemini approach”
- Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology Google DeepMind (arXiv technical report)
“When using synthetic data, we run several stages of filtering over it, removing examples that show certain personal information, unsafe or toxic model outputs, mistaken self-identification data, or duplicated examples.”
- Enhancing Model Safety through Pretraining Data Filtering Anthropic (alignment.anthropic.com) · 19 August 2025
“In addition to misuse risks, which are the focus of this blog post, data filtering has the potential to mitigate misalignment risks as well.”
Reasoning
Anthropic documented a safety-motivated pretraining-data filtering experiment: it used a classifier to remove harmful information and then pretrained models from scratch on the filtered data (E1). It also said this filtering could help with misalignment risks (E4). Google DeepMind's Gemma report describes filtering pretraining data to address risks and removing unsafe or toxic examples from synthetic training data (E2, E3). Under the criteria, a leading developer publicly documenting safety-motivated pretraining-data filtering in its models or research counts as false. Anthropic's work aimed at removing harmful information rather than shaping values, but the criteria count safety-motivated filtering, so the verdict is false.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_37fbc688f3ea, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_37fbc688f3ea
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.