6,750 claims · page 34 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Promise | 1 Aug 2022 | Bill Ackman will appear on CNBC at 8:20am on 2 August 2022 to discuss what he called Visa's continued facilitation of child trafficking on PornHub and affiliated sites. Bill Ackman · Promise · 1 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 31 Jul 2022 | The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse. Bill Ackman · Factual · 31 Jul 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | 30 Jul 2022 | Bill Ackman and his firm have no economic interest, long or short, in Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Amex or any other payments company, processing company, bank or financial institution. Bill Ackman · Factual · 30 Jul 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 29 Jul 2022 | Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Bill Ackman · Factual · 29 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 29 Jul 2022 | The Big Four accounting firms are not directly exposed to gas or food inflation. Bill Ackman · Factual · 29 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 27 Jul 2022 | Since the close on 14 June 2022, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates were down 36, 70 and 41 basis points respectively as of 27 July 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 27 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 22 Jul 2022 | A new trailer for The Rings of Power was released at Comic-Con on 2022-07-22. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 22 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 14 Jul 2022 | Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Bill Ackman · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 14 Jul 2022 | The first full-length trailer for The Rings of Power was released by 2022-07-14. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 5 Jul 2022 | There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Bill Ackman · Factual · 5 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | The US will have genuine goods shortages because of supply chain problems. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | By the end of the 2020s, cryptocurrency will be what all politics is about, as social media was in the 2010s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Many non-white people in the US will shift to supporting Bitcoin because of inflation. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Slow steaming, which he called a self-inflicted wound caused by ESG, means every container ship in the world now has to slow down. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Opt-in online networks will be able to be materialized as communities in the physical world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | A coup attempt against the Chinese leadership would not succeed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | In five or ten years people will care a great deal where their money is held and whether it can be frozen. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Balaji Srinivasan holds no Snap (Snapchat) stock. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | By the end of the 2020s, governments will not be able to fund themselves without cryptocurrency. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Amendments barring seizure of Bitcoin will probably be ratified in a fair number of US states. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Twitter has a global leaderboard, which is inherently zero-sum. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | In the late 1990s, and probably the early 2000s, people (including Bill Gates) talked about a 'convergence device'. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Balaji Srinivasan said he does not believe the things he was describing are going to go away, calling this his personal belief and not financial advice. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | The majority of English speakers on the internet are or soon will be in India. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | The Chinese state would respond to a coup attempt with AI-enabled surveillance to root out civil society groups that collaborated. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Srinivasan said he thinks that in the US it will play out as something like maximalists versus wokes. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | The United States is heading toward anarchy. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Inflation affects African Americans, Latinos, Asians and whites equally. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Freeze and seizure orders will be issued to centralized crypto exchanges. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | If the US has genuine serious inflation or hyperinflation, American society will come apart. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | A slight tonal shift in a prompt word produces a totally different looking DALL-E 2 image. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | It is possible, though not certain, that some kind of coup will be attempted against Xi Jinping or the Chinese Communist Party. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | An inflation-tracking app combining crypto tools will become the new CoinMarketCap, checked daily by users. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Srinivasan said he thinks the US will see very serious inflation because the Federal Reserve will probably be forced to cut rates to the floor, possibly before the 2024 election, and print money. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | The political spectrum will rotate so that red-blue becomes orange versus green. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Bitcoin will probably become the Schelling point (focal asset) for assets that cannot be seized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | To his knowledge, the Tim Ferriss rankings are not juiced or editorialized. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | China's boom was caused by Deng Xiaoping allowing farmers to keep some of their grain, so that their effort led to results. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Mobile phones will come to be seen as an intermediate stage, as people want the use of their hands and to be outside rather than stuck inside. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | There will be serious inflation and a surge in Bitcoin's price, followed by the US government trying to freeze or seize Bitcoin with something similar to Executive Order 6102. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | In the 2000s, online services generally wanted everybody to sign up. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Sergey Brin remarked many years ago that staring down at a phone is emasculating. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 4 Jul 2022 | Censorship will increase dramatically if inflation takes hold. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Jim Cramer | Factual | 30 Jun 2022 | The first half of 2022 was the worst first half for the stock market since 1970. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Jun 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Delivered on time | Nate Silver | Promise | 29 Jun 2022 | Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon. Nate Silver · Promise · 29 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jim Cramer | Factual | 28 Jun 2022 | On the 2022-06-28 Mad Money episode, Jim Cramer interviews Adam Selipsky, CEO of Amazon Web Services. Jim Cramer · Factual · 28 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 24 Jun 2022 | Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022. Nate Silver · Factual · 24 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 23 Jun 2022 | People will one day all spend hundreds of dollars in the Metaverse. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 23 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 23 Jun 2022 | The Metaverse operating system will become as important as Apple, making privacy concerns moot. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 23 Jun 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Prediction | 12 Jun 2022 | Biden will likely get a gun control bill passed but not a voting rights bill. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Humans do not explicitly pursue inclusive genetic fitness, although natural selection optimized on that simple loss function. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as everyone on Earth suddenly dying within the same second. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Using current alignment techniques, humanity is not on course to get AGI that avoids killing everyone with probability roughly 1. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Given insufficient foresight by the operators, Yudkowsky expects many of those alignment problems to appear at about the same time after a sharp AI capability gain. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Future AGI will not be upper-bounded by human ability or human learning speed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | A sufficiently capable cognitive system with any medium-bandwidth channel of causal influence could easily bootstrap to overpowering capabilities independent of human infrastructure. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | When natural selection produced general intelligence in humans, alignment with the outer optimization loop broke after the intelligence became general, relatively late in its accumulation of capability and knowledge. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | MIRI tried and failed to find a coherent formula for an agent that would let itself be shut down without actively trying to get shut down. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Yudkowsky expects that training by gradient descent against that behavior in a toy domain would produce not-particularly-coherent local patches to thought processes, which would break with near-certainty inside a superintelligence generalizing far outside its training distribution. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | There is no known way to use loss functions, sensory inputs or reward inputs to make a cognitive system's optimization point at particular latent things in the environment. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | AlphaZero surpassed all accumulated human knowledge about Go after about a day of self-play, without human playbooks or sample games. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Programmers' and operators' methodologies may break when they move from not-fully-dangerous to dangerous AI domains, which are out-of-distribution for them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Under the current optimization paradigm there is no general method known to get particular inner properties into an AI system or verify they are present. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Fast AI capability gains seem likely and may break many previous alignment-required invariants simultaneously. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Systems much smarter than humans would be able to learn from less evidence than humans require. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Even if an AGI ends up perfectly inner-aligned on a sensory reward signal, an AGI strongly optimizing on that signal "will kill you", because the sensory reward signal was not a ground truth about alignment as seen by the operators. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 10 Jun 2022 | Many anti-corrigible lines of reasoning may first appear only at high levels of AI intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed | Nate Silver | Factual | 6 Jun 2022 | Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Nate Silver · Factual · 6 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mixed | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 May 2022 | Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 May 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Research failed | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 May 2022 | Forgiving some student loan debt is reasonably popular. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 May 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Digital super intelligence will be within humans rather than separate from them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | People will hear early claims that computers have passed the Turing test and will not pay attention to them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Beyond the point reached around 2032, a timing he said depends on how diligent a person is, people will get back more than a year of longevity from scientific progress for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Individual people will be able to do more than today because they will have many more skills through AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | Currently 95% of Nobel Prizes in medicine go to people with MDs. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | It will probably take about four or five years before AI passing the Turing test becomes obvious and no longer a question. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Designing proteins that flag and destroy cancer cells (e.g. with AlphaProteo) would amount to a cure for cancer. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Kurzweil said he thinks molecular assemblers, which would let people build anything they want anywhere, will arrive more like the 2040s. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Humans will not use actual brain matter to expand their brains, but computer-based intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | The prizes received by Geoffrey Hinton and by Demis Hassabis and John Jumper were very much for AI. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Ultimately humans will be able to create new types of bodies and won't be limited to one. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | Current AI systems are not yet sentient, but are moving in that direction. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | Kurzweil presented a similar device about 15 years ago. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Kurzweil said he believes that if people can hold on for five, maybe ten years, "we can replace all of these problems" that make them die sooner than they want. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | The rate of gain in longevity from medical progress will accelerate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Kurzweil says that saying "by the end of the decade" is conservative and that it could happen faster; the material does not state what the estimate refers to. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | People will have access inside their own minds to all the creations of every living person who has demonstrated anything. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | New types of jobs will emerge that cannot be imagined today. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | It will become very hard to imagine how a person could die, with brain and heart backups. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Kurzweil said he thinks people will be given money so they can manage while they reconsider what kind of work they will be able to do. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | Of people Kurzweil asked about 15 years ago, about 80% said they would not carry phones, yet that group carries phones today. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | Simulated-biology testing of medications against cancer will be millions of times faster than past methods. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 26 May 2022 | AI will go inside humans and make them much smarter than before. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Gaming is the biggest digital entertainment category. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Economics and markets |
“Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.”
Nate Silver, writing on X about FiveThirtyEight forecast 30 June 2022 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2022-06-30 (X)
Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim has two parts. Judge both against the 2022 midterm results, and check that the published forecast was as described. Part 1: Republicans win a House majority. Part 2: Senate control is close, meaning it is decided by a margin of about two seats or fewer, or the tipping-point Senate race is decided by under about 3 points. True: both parts hold, and the FiveThirtyEight forecast of about 30 June 2022 showed Republicans as clear House favourites (roughly 70% or more) and the Senate near 50-50. Mostly true: both outcome parts hold, with a minor discrepancy in how the forecast numbers were described. Mixed: one part holds and the other does not (e.g., Republicans fail to win the House, or one party wins the Senate comfortably). Mostly false: Republicans win the House only very narrowly after being 'heavy favourites', and the Senate is not close. False: Democrats keep the House and one party wins the Senate decisively.
Evidence
- 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Sinema opted to caucus with neither party but to continue aligning with the Democrats, bringing the Democratic Senate majority to 51 seats.”
- With two days until US midterm elections, Republicans will probably win control of both chambers of Congress The Conversation · 7 November 2022
“The FiveThirtyEight forecasts now give Republicans an 83% chance to win the House and a 54% chance to win the Senate.”
- It was meant to be a much tougher road for the Democrats Sydney Morning Herald · 9 November 2022
“Indeed, in its final forecast for the midterms, posted on the morning of election day, respected forecaster FiveThirtyEight suggested Republicans had a 59 per cent chance of winning the Senate and an 84 per cent chance of winning the House.”
- It was meant to be a much tougher road for the Democrats Sydney Morning Herald · 9 November 2022
“By 2am on Wednesday morning in Washington, Republicans remained hopeful of wresting control of the House of Representatives but the “red wave” they had expected looked more like a trickle.”
- 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Sinema opted to caucus with neither party but to continue aligning with the Democrats, bringing the Democratic Senate majority to 51 seats.”
- 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Democratic incumbents were reelected in Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, while Republicans flipped Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.”
- 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“"2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. November 7, 2022. Archived from the original on June 30, 2022.”
- Midterm Election Results for the House of Representatives 2022 | CNN Politics CNN · 7 November 2022
“Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a “red wave” but thwart President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda and will likely subject his White House to relentless investigations.”
- The Results Are In... A Recap of the 2022 Midterm Elections and a Preview of the Lame-Duck Session Foley & Lardner LLP · 10 November 2022
“The Senate will be controlled 51-49 by Democrats and the House will be control 222-213 by Republicans.”
- Video Nate Silver unveils FiveThirtyEight's 2022 Election Forecast ABC News · 30 June 2022
“As of launch, Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties.”
- How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets? – Mick Bransfield Mick Bransfield · 15 July 2022
“On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast.”
Reasoning
ABC News described FiveThirtyEight's forecast at its 30 June 2022 launch in the same terms as the claim: Republicans were "strong favorites" for the House and the Senate was "a toss up" (E10). E11 confirms the launch date. Republicans won the House, which CNN projected and the Foley & Lardner recap put at 222-213 (E8, E9). Democrats held the Senate 51-49, a one-seat margin that meets the criteria's test for a close Senate (E9). No source gives the exact June 30 probabilities, but the independent description matches the claim. Both outcome conditions held.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.” (said 30 June 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3727830f7f7d, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3727830f7f7d
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.