Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 66 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Over time GEICO will inevitably increase its market share significantly while achieving excellent profits, thanks to its low-cost advantage. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's policyholder growth slowed to a halt as 2000 progressed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 At the 2000 Berkshire meeting weekend baseball game, it took Buffett five pitches to throw anything resembling a strike. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire analyzes purchases on an all-equity basis, so its evaluations did not change when LBO operators became less aggressive in 2000. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's underwriting loss in 2000 produced a float cost of 6.1%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's negotiated acquisitions of entire businesses will at best provide only reasonable returns. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Gorat's steakhouse will be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, April 29, 2001, serving from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 In its last 36 years, Berkshire has never had a manager of a significant subsidiary voluntarily leave to join another business. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Most of Berkshire's stock holdings are fully priced and are unlikely to deliver more than moderate returns in the future. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Because these transactions, which typically come in large chunks, can materially distort the company's figures, it will tell readers about them as they occur. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett's investment results in the decade before 1951 were no better than average. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Absent a mega-catastrophe, Berkshire expected its float cost to fall in 2001, perhaps substantially, in large part because of pricing corrections at General Re. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 In most cases GEICO will be able to offer shareholders at the 2001 meeting a special discount, usually 8%. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 The S&P 500 figures in Berkshire's comparison table are pre-tax, whereas Berkshire's figures are after-tax. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire paid for the 1993 Dexter acquisition using Berkshire shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Chess champion Patrick Wolff will play blindfolded against all comers in the mall at the 2001 Berkshire meeting weekend. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next 20 years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Nebraska Furniture Mart's shareholder weekend pricing from April 25-30, 2001 will apply to products of prestige manufacturers that normally forbid discounting. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett stated an expectation that, at GEICO, float would over time be free (no cost). Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 The Washington Post Company reviews its acquisitions three years after they are made. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 The matter referred to on page 65 of the report will have no effect on Berkshire's intrinsic value. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire will hold its annual meeting at the Civic Auditorium on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 CORT looks like a good bet to beat Berkshire's original expectations for the business. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said "we believe" that Berkshire's gain in per-share intrinsic value for the year (2000) moderately exceeded its gain in book value, and he called this judgment "necessarily subjective". Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 At the April 28, 2001 meeting, doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30 and the meeting will start at 9:30. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett knew nothing about CORT but immediately printed out its SEC filings and liked what he saw. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Buffett and Charlie Munger will answer shareholder questions until 3:30 p.m. at the 2001 meeting, except for a noon break. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 At any time, Kurzweil's company could sell the prior version of its software for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The bulk of human experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical and other scanning improve. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Stock values of B2B and B2C web portals and enabling technologies are likely to come back strongly as e-commerce escalates and surviving firms show profitable models. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 It took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS per thousand dollars, and as of 2001 one MIPS per thousand dollars is added every day. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The brain's massive parallelism is the key to its pattern recognition abilities. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Most of civilization's intelligence will be nonbiological, and by the end of the 21st century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The Broadcast Architecture, requiring replication codes from a central secure server, is impossible in the biological world, so nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology in that respect. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 In Kurzweil's view, the likely outcome is that superhuman intelligences will appear to biological humans as transcendent servants satisfying their needs and desires. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Radical extensions to human longevity and far greater economic expansion do not rule each other out, because the positive factors are stronger and will ultimately dominate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A personal computer can download fully trained speech-recognition patterns in seconds without repeating the training process. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The number of college students has increased one hundred fold. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 There are no natural limits preventing functionally equivalent recreation of the hundred-billion-neuron human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 A defect in the mechanism limiting nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technology companies' rapid creation of real wealth will continue to fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Investments in education at all levels have been increasing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Undetectable spy nanobots placed in food or water could monitor, influence and even control people's thoughts and actions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The creative and constructive applications of advanced technology like nanotech and AI will dominate over harmful ones. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 By 2030, nanobot technology will be viable and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technologies being researched (3D chips, optical, crystalline, DNA, quantum computing) will keep exponential growth in computation going for a long time. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Future machines will claim to be people and to have the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences people claim. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 At Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, each slightly more intelligent version of its speech recognition software invariably had greater value than the previous generation and sales increased as a result. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Because of repetitive patterns in each brain region, capturing every detail is not necessary to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 In Kurzweil's view, the intelligence that emerges after the Singularity will continue to represent human civilization, which he described as already a human-machine civilization. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Kurzweil told a Nobel-winning panelist that 100 years was a reasonable estimate of the technical progress needed for self-replicating nanoengineered entities, at the rate of progress then current. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technological progress will ultimately become so fast that it exceeds humans' ability to follow it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The Singularity will transform all aspects of life, including social, sexual and economic. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Any skill, capability or form of intelligence one cares to define will be replicated in nonbiological machines within a few decades. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 According to Kurzweil's models, adopting an exponential rather than linear outlook means current stock prices should triple, adding about $40 trillion on roughly $20 trillion of equity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Kurzweil said we can conservatively expect the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once the technology is refined, a reinstantiated scanned person will appear to observers to have much the same personality, history and memory as the original. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 As of 2001, people do not worry about causing pain and suffering to computer programs. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see on the order of twenty thousand years of progress, measured at the rate of progress current when the statement was made (January 2001). Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Scanning a frozen brain is feasible today but not at sufficient speed or bandwidth; accelerating returns will supply the required scanning speed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Human-like intelligent entities will be capable of passing the Turing test. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron's electrochemical processes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Society will rethink social security once centenarians look and act like 30-year-olds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 According to Kurzweil's models, the physical limits of matter and energy for intelligent processes won't be approached this century but will become an issue within a couple of centuries. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once brain patterns can be stored and restored, the longevity of a person's mind file will not depend on any particular hardware medium. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing, though the reverse is not true. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Responses at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more serious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Routine college bioengineering labs will soon be able to create pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons, as more sophisticated labs already can. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Biosecurity
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once a computer achieves human-level intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A computer can remember billions or trillions of facts perfectly, while humans struggle to remember a handful of phone numbers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanobot-based brain scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling approximately every decade, with paradigm shift times halving every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Abandoning broad areas of technology would push them underground, where development would continue without ethics and regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotechnology is the inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization across all technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 Technological evolution is an outgrowth and continuation of biological evolution. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form a few years before 2001 and did not exist at all a decade before. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Humans will become vastly smarter as they merge with technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The next primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid of biological and nonbiological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Billions of nanobots could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technological progress will literally get out of human control. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotech is potentially more dangerous than biotech because nanobots can be physically stronger and more intelligent than protein-based entities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Once a species develops computing technology, within a couple of centuries its nonbiological intelligence explodes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction AI capabilities

“Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library)

Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge at the end of 2020. True: by the end of 2020, documented computer systems could read unrestricted natural-language text on their own (without human hand-coding of its content) and show understanding by building usable models of it. That understanding would show in answering questions, summarizing or drawing inferences about general text at roughly human level on broad evaluations. Mostly true: such systems existed by 2020, with only minor caveats, such as known failure modes that do not undercut general reading ability. Mostly false: by 2020 machines matched humans only on narrow reading-comprehension benchmarks or restricted domains, without general autonomous reading and understanding. False: by the end of 2020 no system came close to autonomous reading with understanding of general text.

Evidence

  1. Machines Beat Humans on a Reading Test. But Do They Understand? | Quanta Magazine Quanta Magazine · 17 October 2019
    “But it's definitely not understanding English in a comprehensive and robust way.”
  2. Climbing towards NLU: On Meaning, Form, and Understanding in the Age of Data ACL Anthology (Bender and Koller, ACL 2020) · 2020
    “we argue that a system trained only on form has a priori no way to learn meaning.”
  3. Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding arXiv (Hendrycks et al.) · September 2020
    “However, on every one of the 57 tasks, the best models still need substantial improvements before they can reach human-level accuracy.”

Reasoning

E1 (Quanta, 2019) reports machines beating humans on a reading test but quotes an expert saying such a system is 'definitely not understanding English in a comprehensive and robust way.' E3 (Hendrycks et al., September 2020) finds that on a broad 57-task language-understanding evaluation the best models still needed substantial improvement to reach human-level accuracy on every task. E2 (ACL 2020) argues that systems trained only on form cannot learn meaning. Together these show human-level performance only on narrow reading benchmarks by 2020, without general autonomous reading with understanding, which matches the mostly-false criterion.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century.” (said January 2001). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_3685c9e4bfb5, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3685c9e4bfb5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.