| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
Running at the same rate of change in attitude as both the market and general opinion is both frustrating and unprofi table.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
Remove the pressure even for a short while and the normal equilibrium will quickly be restored.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
The problem is that they are mostly very expensive and only a little bit helpful.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jul 2010 |
Some further decline in house prices is probably more than a 50/50 bet in the U.S., and nearly certain in the U.K. and Australia.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jul 2010 |
A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets and causes global sea levels to rise.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
You don’t have to be a passionate follower of Keynes to realize that to rapidly reduce defi cits at this point is at least to fl irt with a…
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
Sensing this, these think tanks have allowed their drive for desirable policy to trump science.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
Congress has played the part of the carefree, unprepared grasshopper perfectly.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
All that accumulated fi nancial wealth does is shuffl e the accounting claims to determine the pecking order
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
But blue chip stocks are on their own, without any natural offsetting buyers.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Jeremy Grantham | Not checkable |
Jul 2010 |
The only way that pensions can be paid is out of the current year’s GDP – the total output of new goods and new services.
Jeremy Grantham · Not checkable · Jul 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
Jun 2010 |
The US, eurozone, UK and Japan, being heavily indebted, will need to print more and more money and will have sluggish growth rates.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Ray Dalio | Not checkable |
Jun 2010 |
the European situation is a particularly risky one for a number of reasons.
Ray Dalio · Not checkable · Jun 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Dalio | Not checkable |
Jun 2010 |
such efforts have become "politically untenable."
Ray Dalio · Not checkable · Jun 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
The size of the European sovereign debt dwarfs, that is, is far larger than, that of any other debt crisis.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Ray Dalio | Not checkable |
Jun 2010 |
I want to minimize my exposure to the major developed countries' currencies - the U.S. dollar, the euro, the British Pound, and the yen.
Ray Dalio · Not checkable · Jun 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Dalio | Not checkable |
Jun 2010 |
They're roaring ahead.
Ray Dalio · Not checkable · Jun 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
The subject said that the matter he was describing "dwarfs" the Asian Contagion, meaning it is far larger, and called the amounts involved "enormous."
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
Emerging-market economies are competitive because labor is cheaper and investment levels are high.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
Jun 2010 |
The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
Government intervention and quantitative easing after 2008 did not produce new financial assets.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
As of mid-2010, emerging-market economies have not reached their debt limits.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
The European sovereign debt dwarfs, that is, is far larger than, the debt at the centre of the Latin American debt crisis.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
There has been very little new lending following the 2008 crisis government intervention, as of mid-2010.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Ray Dalio | Not checkable |
Jun 2010 |
These are enormous, enormous amounts.
Ray Dalio · Not checkable · Jun 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
Jun 2010 |
The government stimulus produced very little new economic activity in the US.
Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
Jun 2010 |
Money printing will offset the deflation coming from weak demand due to weak credit growth, rather than cause inflation.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
6 Apr 2010 |
Future generations of Americans will suffer terrible financial consequences from the bailouts and the extended bubble.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
After the crisis became clear in early 2007, the Fed chairman, Treasury secretary, president and senior members of Congress repeatedly underestimated its severity.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Unfortunately, he did not give good advice.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Resolved true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry deliberately avoided Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns as swap counterparties.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
To me, these agencies seemed not to be paying much attention.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Resolved true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry shut down Scion Capital in 2008.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry's prediction of a mortgage market meltdown was based on his research into the residential mortgage market and mortgage-backed securities.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
I knew that would mark the beginning of the end of the housing bubble; it would mean that prices had risen — with the expansion of easy…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry began worrying about the housing market in 2003, when lenders resurrected interest-only mortgages and loosened credit standards.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Scion's credit default swaps covered AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, among other firms that failed or nearly failed.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Yet the tide was about to turn.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
The truth is, he should have seen what was coming and offered a sober, apolitical warning.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Since then, I have often wondered why nobody in Washington showed any interest in hearing exactly how I arrived at my conclusions that the…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
If the mistakes were properly outlined, that might both inform Congress’s efforts to improve financial regulation and help keep future Fed…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Mixed |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
By mid-2005 Michael Burry bought credit default swaps on billions of dollars of subprime mortgage-backed securities and bonds of financial companies.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Because I had been operating in the face of strong opposition from both my investors and the Wall Street community, it took everything I…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
But the signs were all there in 2005, when a bursting of the bubble would have had far less dire consequences, and when the government…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Goldman Sachs and other derivatives dealers did not demand daily collateral settlement from AAA-rated AIG.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Throughout 2004, interest-only mortgages were offered to more and more subprime borrowers with the weakest credit.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
After studying regulatory filings on mortgage-backed securities, Michael Burry waited for lenders to offer the riskiest mortgages to the least qualified buyers.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry said that, during the same period, he also watched ratings agencies vouch for subprime mortgage-backed securities.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
And at this point there is no reason to reflexively dismiss the analysis of those who foresaw the crisis.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry demanded daily collateral settlement on his swaps, with cash posted to Scion's account the next day if positions moved in its favor.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Instead, our leaders in Washington either willfully or ignorantly aided and abetted the bubble.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
By early 2008 Michael Burry exited all remaining credit default positions by auctioning them to Wall Street banks seeking protection.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Burry exited his remaining credit default positions well before the government bailouts of the financial crisis.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
During 2007, under pressure from investors, Michael Burry liquidated most of Scion's credit default swaps at a substantial profit.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
ultimately leaving themselves with only one policy tool — the epic and unfair taxpayer-financed bailouts.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
As a nation, we cannot afford to live with Mr. Greenspan’s way of thinking.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
Michael Burry used six counterparties for his credit default swaps to limit exposure to any one of them.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
It did not have to be this way.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
In 2005 and 2006 Michael Burry argued in letters to Scion Capital clients that the mortgage market would melt down in the second half of 2007, badly damaging the economy.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Factual |
6 Apr 2010 |
By December 2005, subprime mortgages issued six months earlier were already showing atypically high delinquency rates.
Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Mr. Greenspan should use his substantial intellect and unsurpassed knowledge of government to ascertain and explain exactly how he and…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
Increasingly, lenders concerned themselves more with the quantity of mortgages they sold than with their quality.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
By mid-2005, I had so much confidence in my analysis that I staked my reputation on it.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
But at the time almost no one else thought these trades would work out in my favor.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
6 Apr 2010 |
I believed that the collapse of the subprime mortgage market would ultimately lead to huge failures among the largest financial…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 6 Apr 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
And yes, I am talking about March 2001, not March 2000.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
Many stocks remain overvalued, and speculative excess – both on the upside and on the downside – is embedded in the frenzy around stocks of…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
The preference, always, would be to buy a long-term franchise at a substantial discount from growing intrinsic value.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
these stocks, having largely missed out on the speculative ride up, have nevertheless frequently been pushed down to absurd levels owing to…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
In essence, the stock market represents three separate categories of business.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
They are, adjusted for inflation, those with shrinking intrinsic value, those with approximately stable intrinsic value, and those with…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
The bulk of the opportunities remain in undervalued, smaller, more illiquid situations that often represent average or slightly…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
I will not label this Fund a “small cap” fund, for this may not be where the best opportunities are next month or next year.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
Hence, the world’s best companies largely remain overpriced in the marketplace.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
it is my feeling that the revisions have not been severe enough, the expectations not yet realistic enough.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
As for the future, I can only say the Fund will always be biased to where the value is.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
When I stand on my special-issue “Intelligent Investor” ladder and peer out over the frenzied crowd, I see very few others doing the same.
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
If recent trends continue, it would not be surprising to find the stocks of several larger capitalization stocks with significant long-term…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Michael Burry | Not checkable |
4 Mar 2010 |
the valuations placed on these securities have implied overly rosy scenarios prone to popular revision in times of more realistic…
Michael Burry · Not checkable · 4 Mar 2010 |
|
| Unresolvable |
GiveWell | Factual |
7 Jan 2010 |
GiveWell's reviews of other organizations tend to focus on the end product and stay agnostic on those organizations' progress and how they can improve.
GiveWell · Factual · 7 Jan 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
Is GiveWell’s research process “robust,” i.e., can it be continued & maintained without relying on the co-Founders?
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Mostly true |
GiveWell | Factual |
7 Jan 2010 |
GiveWell last laid out a business plan in November 2008.
GiveWell · Factual · 7 Jan 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
Our current top priority is assessing the state of GiveWell: what we’ve accomplished, where we stand, and where we should focus our limited…
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
Our self-review won’t be entirely comparable to the reviews we perform of other organizations.
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
When evaluating ourselves, it is essential that we examine “intermediate indicators” as well as our ultimate impact, and think critically…
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
The ultimate goal is to have significant impact on the flow of donations, moving toward a world in which donors reward charities for…
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
The major questions about GiveWell, as I see them, are as follows.
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
GiveWell’s mission is to find outstanding charities and publish the full details of our analysis to help donors decide where to give.
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
GiveWell | Not checkable |
7 Jan 2010 |
Does GiveWell provide quality research that highlights truly outstanding charities in the areas it has covered?
GiveWell · Not checkable · 7 Jan 2010 |
|
| Resolved true |
GiveWell | Promise |
7 Jan 2010 |
GiveWell will examine itself critically over the coming weeks and share its self-review in near real time on its blog.
GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
GiveWell | Promise |
7 Jan 2010 |
GiveWell intends to discuss, for each of its self-review questions, its progress since November 2008, where it stands today relative to success, and what it can do to improve.
GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2010 |
Too often, a vast collection of possessions ends up possessing its owner.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Bill Gates | Not checkable |
2010 |
But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints
Bill Gates · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2010 |
Implementing ConvNets in software is best achieved using the modular, object-oriented approach suggested in [2].
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2010 |
In contrast, my family and I will give up nothing we need or want by fulfilling this 99% pledge.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2010 |
My luck was accentuated by my living in a market system that sometimes produces distorted results, though overall it serves our country…
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2010 |
It is clear that abs and normalization are cruciala for achieving good performance.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not researched |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2010 |
To the authors' knowledge, 0.53% is the lowest error rate reported on the original MNIST dataset without distortions or preprocessing; the best previously reported error rate was 0.60%.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2010 |
We describe new unsupervised learning algorithms, and new non-linear stages that allow ConvNets to be trained with very few labeled samples.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2010 |
|
| Not checkable |
Warren Buffett | Not checkable |
2010 |
My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.
Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2010 |
|