Claims

Factual · Their own work or organisation

“The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, blog author · 20 July 2016 · Master Plan, Part Deux (Tesla)

When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Factual claim, judged as of 2016-07-20 about the Autopilot system then in use. Data gathered later counts if it covers that period. TRUE: credible data, ideally independent or regulator data that controls for road type and driver mix, shows that Autopilot used as intended in 2016 had a significantly lower crash or injury rate than comparable driving by a human alone. MOSTLY TRUE: such data shows a clear safety advantage, but the size of the advantage is smaller or less certain than 'significantly'. MIXED: the evidence is split, with some credible analyses showing a benefit and others showing none. MOSTLY FALSE: the only support is uncontrolled comparisons, such as Tesla's Autopilot miles per fatality set against all US driving, or data that was later disputed, so the claim is stated as established when it was unproven. FALSE: credible data shows that correctly used Autopilot was not safer than, or was less safe than, comparable human driving.

Evidence

1. DOT NHTSA ODI Document (Investigation PE 16-007) U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · 19 January 2017

   “The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.”

2. DOT NHTSA ODI Document (Investigation PE 16-007) U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · 19 January 2017

   “The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actual Autopilot use.”

3. An agency hid Tesla crash data for nearly two years SFGate (Los Angeles Times syndicated article by Russ Mitchell) · 15 February 2019

   “For the small minority of cars for which mileage data were provided both before and after Autosteer was installed, Teslas were involved in 60 percent more crashes, Whitfield concluded.”

4. Tesla's own numbers show Autopilot has higher crash rate than human drivers Green Car Reports · 10 November 2016

   “Conclusion: Autopiloted Teslas have twice the fatal-crash rate of human-piloted Teslas.”

Reasoning

The main supporting data, NHTSA's finding that crash rates fell almost 40 percent after Autosteer was installed (E1), counted all miles driven before and after installation, not just miles with Autopilot engaged (E2). That makes it an uncontrolled comparison. The figure was later disputed: according to a 2019 article, Whitfield's reanalysis of the small minority of cars that had mileage data from both before and after Autosteer installation concluded that Teslas were involved in 60 percent more crashes (E3). Separately, a November 2016 analysis of Tesla's own numbers concluded that Autopiloted Teslas had twice the fatal-crash rate of human-piloted Teslas (E4). The reanalysis in E3 rests on a small minority of cars, so the counter-evidence does not firmly show the system was less safe. Still, the claim of being "significantly safer" was stated as established when the evidence had not proven it.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone.” (said 20 July 2016). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_23f3881c0e29, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_23f3881c0e29