Claims

Factual · Other

“From 1990 to 2019, child mortality worldwide was cut by more than half.”

Bill Gates, on X · 10 April 2024 · Post by @BillGates on X, 2024-04-10 (X)

Worldwide child mortality was cut by more than half between 1990 and 2019.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: authoritative estimates show the global under-5 mortality rate or the number of under-5 deaths fell by more than 50% from 1990 to 2019. For reference, UN IGME figures are about 93 to 38 per 1,000 live births, and about 12.5 million to 5.2 million deaths. Mostly true: the decline exceeds 50% on one measure, and on the other it is just at about 50%. Mostly false: the decline is between 45% and 50% on both measures, so the figure is real but overstated. False: the decline is below 45% on both measures.

Evidence

1. Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation PubMed Central (The Lancet systematic analysis by UN IGME) · 18 January 2022

   “The global U5MR decreased by 59% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 56–61) from 93·0 (91·7–94·5) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 37·7 (36·1–40·8) in 2019, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12·5 (12·3–12·7) million in 1990 to 5·2 (5·0–5·6) million in 2019—a 58% (55–60) reduction.”

2. Global, regional and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: A systematic analysis - UNICEF DATA UNICEF DATA · 20 January 2022

   “The global U5MR decreased by 59 per cent, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12.5 (12.3–12.7) million in 1990 to 5.2 (5.0–5.6) million in 2019—a 58 per cent reduction.”

3. COVID-19 could reverse decades of progress toward eliminating preventable child deaths, agencies warn World Health Organization · 9 September 2020

   “The number of global under-five deaths dropped to its lowest point on record in 2019 – down to 5.2 million from 12.5 million in 1990, according to new mortality estimates released by UNICEF, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and the World Bank Group.”

Reasoning

The UN IGME systematic analysis in The Lancet (E1) reports that the global under-5 mortality rate fell 59%, from 93.0 to 37.7 per 1,000 live births, between 1990 and 2019. Over the same period, annual under-5 deaths fell 58%, from 12.5 million to 5.2 million. UNICEF (E2) reports the same figures for both measures, and a WHO press release on joint UN agency estimates (E3) reports the fall in under-5 deaths from 12.5 million in 1990 to 5.2 million in 2019. Both measures show a decline of more than 50%, which meets the criteria for true.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Worldwide child mortality was cut by more than half between 1990 and 2019.” (said 10 April 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_22f49d51ac18, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_22f49d51ac18