Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It would be, not physically impossible, but cognitively impossible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Resolved true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	A mind accelerated a millionfold would accomplish a subjective year of thinking every 31 physical seconds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Mostly true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make a story more plausible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The same thing could as easily happen to the whole human species, if the human species runs into an unfair challenge. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Citation	2008	A 1982 review of fourteen papers covering thirty-four experiments on human calibration found overwhelmingly that people are overconfident. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Citation · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It is a risky intellectual endeavor to predict specifically how a benevolent AI would help humanity, or an unfriendly AI harm it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Philosophical failure is trying to build the wrong thing, so that even if you succeeded you would still fail to help anyone or benefit… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	minds do not blindly wander into attractors, they have motives. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If you want to know why others aren't responding to an emergency, before you respond yourself, you may have just answered your own question. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2008	Burry said he had recently found opportunity in a handful of severely battered South Korean securities, a Chinese media company and a global internet giant, and that such positions amounted to roughly one-third of the portfolio. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	The Y2K problem, which was very expensive to fix but not globally catastrophic, arose from failing to foresee future design requirements. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Technology
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	The effect of many cognitive biases has been found to increase with time pressure, cognitive busyness, or sparse information. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Friendly AI, as I have proposed it, requires repeated cycles of recursive self-improvement that precisely preserve a stable optimization… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If the AI wants to modify itself to be no longer Friendly, then Friendliness has already failed, at the point when the AI forms that… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Human brains are not designed to be improved by outside neuroscientists or by internal recursive self-improvement. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I would not knowingly swallow a pill that made me enjoy committing murder, because currently I prefer that my fellow humans not die. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Hominids have survived this long only because, for the last million years, there were no arsenals of hydrogen bombs, no spaceships to steer… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Guns were developed centuries before bulletproof vests. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Other global risks
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The catastrophic scenario which stems from underestimating the power of intelligence is that someone builds a button, and doesn’t care… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I don't know how to solve this problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	You trust that the authors didn't unconsciously look just a little bit harder for mistakes in equations that seemed to be leaning the wrong… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The bystander effect is not about individual selfishness, or insensitivity to the suffering of others. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mixed	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky said he did not think it plausible that Homo sapiens would continue indefinitely without a mind arising that exceeds the current upper bound on intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It's harder to abuse heuristics and biases than psychoanalysis. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Human beings use heuristics that quickly give good approximate answers in many cases but also produce systematic errors called biases. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Ordinarily, local strategies are most plausible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Critical times for elementary molecular interactions are measured in femtoseconds, sometimes picoseconds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	No curriculum exists that has prepared a large pool of researchers to make progress on Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Field building and careers
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	In planning, reality usually delivers results somewhat worse than people's stated worst case. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	In practice it often takes a deep technical understanding to figure out what you want. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	In the anthropomorphism experiments discussed, subjects who consciously believed an AI is unlike a human still visualized scenarios as if the AI were anthropomorphic. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Evolutionary biology oﬀers both mathematics and case studies to help hammer out anthropomorphic bias. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I can predict the outcome of a process, without being able to predict any of the intermediate steps in the process. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	For decades the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. avoided nuclear war, but with close calls such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Other global risks
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If I am selective about which arguments I inspect for errors, or even how hard I inspect for errors, then every new rule of rationality I… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A fast, nice intelligence wielding molecular nanotechnology is power on the order of getting rid of disease, not getting rid of cancer. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If so, then by making you a more sophisticated arguer - by teaching you another bias of which to accuse people - I have actually harmed… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Reality throws at you one challenge after another, and when you run into a challenge you can’t handle, you suﬀer the consequences. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The one whom you must watch above all is yourself. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	As soon as a milestone is actually achieved, it ceases to be “AI.” This can only encourage procrastination. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If we want people who can make progress on Friendly AI, then they have to start training themselves, full-time, years before they are… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A good book for quickly picking up a sense of the field. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	You may not drive; you may not fly; you may not walk across the street even after looking both ways, for it is still too great a risk. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It seems like an unfair challenge. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Rather, the representativeness heuristic is what produces the intuitive sense that sequence 2 "seems more likely" than sequence 1. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	No more than Albert Szent-Györgyi could multiply the suffering of one human by a hundred million can I truly understand the value of clear… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The folly of programming an AI to implement communism, or any other political system, is that you’re programming means instead of ends. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	Yudkowsky suggested that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake rather than deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	Other global risks
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	With luck, future historians will look back and describe the present world as an awkward in-between stage of adolescence, when humankind… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Now it seems to me that an AI capable of language, abstract thought, creativity, environmental interaction, originality, prediction… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Each and every absence of knowledge dates back to the dawn of human curiosity; and the hole lasts through the ages, seemingly eternal… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Hindsight bias is important in legal cases where judges or juries decide whether a defendant was negligent in failing to foresee a hazard. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I strongly urge my readers not to start thinking up reasons why a fully generic optimization process would be friendly. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Because human engineers deliberately use designs that they can understand. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	the ability to self-improve does not imply the choice to do so. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	We evaluate descriptions of events, not extensions of events. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It is acceptable to fail at AI and at Friendly AI. It is acceptable to succeed at AI and at Friendly AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But obviously it was not that improbable. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It is disrespectful to human ingenuity to declare a challenge unsolvable without taking a close look and exercising creativity. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Nature is, not cruel, but indiﬀerent; a neutrality which often seems indistinguishable from outright hostility. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2008	If the Funds' remaining credit shorts fell to zero value, Scion Qualified Value Fund would lose about 19% of its value and Scion Value Fund about 15%. Michael Burry · Factual · 2008	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Yet before we can pass out of that stage of adolescence, we must, as adolescents, confront an adult problem: the challenge of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Even so, I suspect that, pragmatically speaking, our alternatives boil down to becoming smarter or becoming extinct. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I don’t know. I’m not that smart. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	But that's a technical question, not a matter of taste; no amount of psychologizing can tell you the exact slope of that curve. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The point about underestimating the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence is symmetrical around potential good impacts and potential… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A prospective risk going from 10,000,000 deaths to 100,000,000 deaths does not multiply by ten the strength of our determination to stop it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Halting or relinquishing an undesirable technology tends to require an impossible unanimous strategy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	I call this mix of anchoring and availability the logical fallacy of generalization from fictional evidence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If you are well-calibrated, then on a test with one hundred such questions, around 2 questions will have answers that fall outside your 98%… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Mostly true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Human beings do not recursively self-improve in a strong sense. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	All scientific ignorance is hallowed by ancientness. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The moral may be that once you can guess what your answer will be - once you can assign a greater probability to your answering one way… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Despite all dangers and temptations, it is better to know about psychological biases than to not know. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It is important to understand that the authors of huge catastrophes need not be evil, nor even unusually stupid. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	So if we find that we cannot make progress on Friendly AI, then we need to figure out how to exit that regime as fast as possible! Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	It is more likely that Friendly AI is solvable but no one will solve it in time than that it is humanly impossible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI safety and alignment
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The calibration research is dangerous knowledge - so tempting to apply selectively. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Pluralistic ignorance can explain, and individual selfishness cannot explain, subjects failing to react to a room filling up with smoke. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Artificial Intelligence does not belong in the same graph that shows progress in medicine, manufacturing, and energy. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	When using long, complex chains of reasoning to argue in favor of an anthropomorphic conclusion, each and every step of the reasoning is… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	To get a really good answer you must sacrifice your ability to predict the answer, albeit not your ability to say what is the question. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Vivid, specific scenarios can inflate our probability estimates of security, as well as misdirecting defensive investments into needlessly… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not researched	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Instructing juries to avoid hindsight bias has no significant effect on that bias. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Prediction	2008	An Artificial Intelligence might increase in intelligence extremely fast. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008	AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The glorious thing about formal mathematical proof, is that a proof of ten billion steps is just as reliable as a proof of ten steps. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	We would last only until the probabilities caught up with us. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Such is the power of creativity. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	It is no law of Nature that physical operations must crawl at the pace of long seconds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	“Fairly good” is not good enough to last another million years. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Suﬃciently tall skyscrapers don’t potentially start doing their own engineering. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If we suppose the g-factor metaphor, then global catastrophic risks of this scenario are relatively mild; a hostile AI is not much more of… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Anthropomorphic bias can be classed as insidious: it takes place with no deliberate intent, without conscious realization, and in the face… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	To improve the truth of our beliefs we must change our beliefs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Resolved true	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Factual	2008	Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect people's estimates of risk. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	A success on human intelligence enhancement would make Friendly AI easier, and also help on other technologies. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	If you throw too much money at a problem that a field is not prepared to solve, the excess money is more likely to produce anti-science… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	Molecular nanotechnology fits this criterion, first because its elementary operations are fast, and second because there exists a ready… Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008
Not checkable	Eliezer Yudkowsky	Not checkable	2008	The prospect of AI interacts with global risk in more complex ways than that; if AI were a pure liability, matters would be simple. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2008

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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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“If the AI wants to modify itself to be no longer Friendly, then Friendliness has already failed, at the point when the AI forms that intention.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky 2008 Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI)

If the AI wants to modify itself to be no longer Friendly, then Friendliness has already failed, at the point when the AI forms that…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If the AI wants to modify itself to be no longer Friendly, then Friendliness has already failed, at the point when the AI forms that…” (said 2008). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_19d3ed2a7eb2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_19d3ed2a7eb2

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.