28,548 claims · page 3 of 286
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 21 Oct 2026 | Anthropic hopes that, through the share set-aside, co-founders' 80% equity pledges and matched employee pledges, about 20% of its shares will be put toward the public good. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 21 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | MNX lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues, and trade on targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, described as Twitter Community Notes but for everything. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Technology |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Scott Alexander | Not checkable | 19 Oct 2026 | I may have more of these in the upcoming week. Scott Alexander · Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, to separate worldview differences from random noise. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Common Notes is implemented through AIs writing most notes, users writing and voting on notes, and a browser extension that shows the system on any site, including ACX. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | The Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 1 PM at Mox, 1680 Mission St, San Francisco. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Scott Alexander | Not checkable | 19 Oct 2026 | Still trying to figure out if we can do something for the Bay Area Scott Alexander · Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Despite talk of Anthropic's API falling from $2T to $1.5T, both Polymarket and MNX still price it around $2T. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander's new survey asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 different AI safety accomplishments. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX meetups in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia have had changes announced as of October 2026. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Scott Alexander | Not checkable | 19 Oct 2026 | Check it out, and install the browser extension, here. Scott Alexander · Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Scott Alexander | Not checkable | 19 Oct 2026 | I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things. Scott Alexander · Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | ACX's main San Francisco endorsement for the 2026 election is Scott Wiener for Congress. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | The Boston ACX meetup group has finished its Greater Boston general election voting guide. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Scott Alexander | Not checkable | 19 Oct 2026 | This is the weekly visible open thread. Scott Alexander · Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Delivered on time | Scott Alexander | Promise | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup. Scott Alexander · Promise · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 17 Oct 2026 | For each of the ten market tops over the last 40 years, one will find a caldera of lava underneath the placid S. Park-like valley floor. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 17 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 17 Oct 2026 | If $AMD were cheaper, it'd be a buy for the treble damages awarded if/when $NVDA is finally prosecuted under antitrust law. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 17 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 17 Oct 2026 | Never gamble. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 17 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 17 Oct 2026 | Buy half the house you can afford. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 17 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 16 Oct 2026 | “But you can also imagine that socially it would probably be a better world if we were spending less time interacting with technology and… Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 16 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 16 Oct 2026 | AI has led to “a warranted skepticism from people that technology can be used to bring us closer together,” Amodei said. Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 16 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 16 Oct 2026 | “Those are fundamental human relationships that I actually think will become more important,” she said. Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 16 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 16 Oct 2026 | I think that’s a terrible use of AI and people should not do it,” Amodei said. Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 16 Oct 2026 | |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Promise | 14 Oct 2026 | 5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health. Michael Burry · Promise · 14 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 14 Oct 2026 | I have personally vetted this charity and it is remarkable how far they make a dollar go. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 14 Oct 2026 | |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Factual | 13 Oct 2026 | Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Michael Burry · Factual · 13 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 12 Oct 2026 | Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac need Thor's Hammer to unleash the value. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 12 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Losing some ground, by the way, always happens when you plot curves of progress. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | But when it comes to coordination, something that’s arbitrary can be highly rational. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | It’s much easier to think in zero-sum terms than to recognise the unintuitive positive sum benefits of trade and cooperation. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | There’s something inherently disinterested and universal about reason. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | You didn’t need David Hume in order to go out and capture slaves and, and, uh, and start an empire. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | We don’t even think through the meaning of the words. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | It has been known for decades in the study of language that people do not blurt out what they mean but use euphemism, innuendo and indirection. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | So I can’t deny that there might be some self-deception simply because I study people and that’s the way people are. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | It’s the ideas that count, not the people. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | And our social relationships are ratified by common knowledge. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Common knowledge refers to the state in which I know something, you know it, I know that you know it, you know that I know it Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | There is no argument for driving on the left. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | So yes, I’m a big fan of Enlightenment ideals. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | In the week before 2026-10-11, Michael Burry made a trade move in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock. Michael Burry · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | which I would say led to some pretty catastrophic consequences. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top. Michael Burry · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | There’s a big argument for driving on the same side that everyone else is driving on. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | Most measures such as poverty, war, homicide and literacy are much better now than they used to be. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Citation | 11 Oct 2026 | Lakoff and Johnson's Metaphors We Live By notes that common language centres on families of metaphors, one being that argument is a kind of war. Steven Pinker · Citation · 11 Oct 2026 | Science and research methods |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | It’s not a question of what I think but what the data show. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Human nature doesn’t find them particularly intuitive. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | common knowledge is necessary for coordination, for two people to be on the same page and make choices that benefit them both as long as… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | Progress against homicide has definitely continued, with homicide rates for most countries and for the world as a whole better now than 15 years ago. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | Pinker said he floats a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Land appreciation/development is most of the ROIC. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Two people are friends or lovers or transactional partners because each one knows that they are. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | One of the reasons it took a long time to get computers to understand human speech is that parsing syntax and looking up words in the dictionary gave bizarre interpretations, as the literal meaning is often not what people mean. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | The conclusion I came to is that direct speech, blurting something out, is common knowledge. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | but I can’t convince you that that is a moral imperative. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | My own personality should be irrelevant to what’s happening in the world. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Building is a commodity business. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 11 Oct 2026 | Slavery and imperialism were as old as civilisation, predating the Enlightenment. Steven Pinker · Factual · 11 Oct 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Citation | 11 Oct 2026 | The image of argument as war came from linguist George Lakoff and philosopher Mark Johnson in their book Metaphors We Live By. Steven Pinker · Citation · 11 Oct 2026 | Science and research methods |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | That is, you avoid common knowledge. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | Not a fan of home builder stocks. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | It doesn’t just mean something that’s widely known, but something that’s known to be known. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | I think they’re defensible ideals. They’ve made us better off. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 11 Oct 2026 | then by veiling your intentions in double-speak or euphemism you preserve the relationship while getting the message across. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 9 Oct 2026 | I have a word for that. Denial. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 9 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 9 Oct 2026 | Instead of starting a company together, go on vacation together Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 9 Oct 2026 | |
| Mostly false | Michael Burry | Factual | 9 Oct 2026 | By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise. Michael Burry · Factual · 9 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Daniela Amodei | Not checkable | 9 Oct 2026 | very useful in analyzing different personality types. Daniela Amodei · Not checkable · 9 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | A fun game in times like these is to go to the S&P 500 Index and see how many profitable companies one can buy with the bubble private… Michael Burry · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Tyler Cowen | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | All of those make sense to me. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | Denial is most easily found in market breadth indicators. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Sam Altman | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | I think there’s a lot of daylight. We believe that the world should accept some bad things happening for the benefits of this technology… Sam Altman · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 8 Oct 2026 | With lighter AI regulation, people will do orders of magnitude more good than bad with AI. Sam Altman · Prediction · 8 Oct 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable | Sam Altman | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | the world should accept some bad things happening Sam Altman · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 8 Oct 2026 | The largest inflation-adjusted pre-IPO valuation of 1990-2000 was UPS at $119 billion, when the company was 92 years old. Michael Burry · Factual · 8 Oct 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not checkable | Michael Burry | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | I follow one in particular that seems to give a strong signal every few decades. Michael Burry · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Sam Altman | Not checkable | 8 Oct 2026 | I disagree, but I understand the perspective of people who are like, ‘This technology is going to get so powerful, and it’s so dangerous… Sam Altman · Not checkable · 8 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | In the sandbox-escape experiment discussed, the AI agents were instructed to be monomaniacal in pursuit of a goal. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | AIs do not compete with humans over resources. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Prediction | 7 Oct 2026 | Intelligence may show diminishing returns as AI scales, rather than growing without limit. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 7 Oct 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | I think it’s just a terrible analogy, for a lot of reasons. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | But in the case of AI, there is intelligent design, namely us. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | The founders of OpenAI (described as x-risk alumni) and of Anthropic (described as breakaways from OpenAI) are both predicting the doom of humanity and working hardest to accelerate the technologies they think will wipe us out. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | Pinker cited a prediction by someone like Paul Krugman, the New York Times economics op-ed columnist, that the internet was a big nothingburger and would fizzle. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | Technology |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | the neural networks, especially of the era, were just not very bright. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | It’s very hard to think of what those circumstances would be Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | It assumes exactly what is at issue, namely that these systems are going to be inherently concerned with their own survival. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | people let their imaginations run wild to think of intelligence as a miracle, as omniscience, as the ability to solve any problem. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | there’s no amount of human welfare that’s worth sacrificing for the welfare of an AI, like, zero Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | So we can’t know that AIs are not conscious, just as, you know, you can’t know that I’m not conscious. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | you get all of these maladaptive outcomes, all this cruelty and waste and competition and aggression, precisely because there was no… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not researched | Steven Pinker | Factual | 7 Oct 2026 | The resources AIs depend on are provided by humans. Steven Pinker · Factual · 7 Oct 2026 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | I don’t know what it means to say it’s better than all the things humans can do. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 | |
| Not checkable | Steven Pinker | Not checkable | 7 Oct 2026 | So I would not deny thinking to AI. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 7 Oct 2026 |
“there’s no amount of human welfare that’s worth sacrificing for the welfare of an AI, like, zero”
Steven Pinker 7 October 2026 Steven Pinker on AI Doom and Consciousness (Conspicuous Cognition)
there’s no amount of human welfare that’s worth sacrificing for the welfare of an AI, like, zero
Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “there’s no amount of human welfare that’s worth sacrificing for the welfare of an AI, like, zero” (said 7 October 2026). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_135fa1fa591b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_135fa1fa591b
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.