Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 This AI technology will be built in other countries, including authoritarian countries. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 AI compute will keep becoming vastly more efficient, with better chips and smarter algorithms, though it will still require huge investment. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 AI is generating jobs across every sector in the US, from chip fabs to computer plants to AI factories, numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Over the next 5 to 10 years, tasks that now take 10 years will take 1 year because of AI. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 At the beginning of 2020 the world's top token user was an OpenAI employee using roughly 100,000 tokens a month. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 This year (2026), "we" will invest close to $1 trillion into United States infrastructure. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 We are building 100 gigawatts between now and the end of the decade, because we want to produce intelligence for the world. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 Altman said OpenAI was announced at the very end of 2015 and that its first day of work was around January 2016. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 By 2015 Sam Altman had become convinced that powerful AI was really going to happen and decided to try building it. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 OpenAI trained GPT-3 in 2020, which Altman considers the first model above a threshold of usability. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 NVIDIA is in its 14th generation of its GPU architecture. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 Work that was expected to take a startup 3 months is now probably doable in about 17 minutes with Codex. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 NVIDIA's architecture runs every AI model in every field of science and every modality, including American and international models. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In a decade, people will not talk about AI as much as they do now, because it will be expected everywhere. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Altman said he thinks some things are going to go very wrong with cybersecurity unless people act quite urgently. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Even with large efficiency gains, much more AI infrastructure will need to be built to avoid AI being a highly priced commodity. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 A chart exists showing the historical cost of an hour of light at night, with early data points at about 5 hours of labor per hour of light. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Technology
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, average per capita token use will rise to roughly 100 billion tokens a month. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 Huang said NVIDIA's growth is accelerating because people are starting to realize it is the safest architecture to invest in. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Altman said he thinks this, speaking while describing OpenAI's new model and what people can now do with AI, will be the greatest boom in entrepreneurship and small business creation the world has ever seen. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 Current investment in AI is on the order of trillions of dollars. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 AI intelligence is now monetized and priced in dollars per million tokens. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 Altman said different people at OpenAI would give different answers, but that the rough consensus, to the degree there is one, was that it came together around the time of GPT-4, which he believed was around March 2023 while saying he might be wrong about the timeline. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 1 gigawatt of AI data center capacity costs about $50-60 billion. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 NVIDIA invented the GPU, which does parallel processing tasks such as fluid dynamics, particle physics, quantum chemistry, graphics and AI. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 The top individual token usage rose by a multi-million-fold factor between early 2020 and mid-2026, about 6.5 years. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Huang cited, as something he hears, the view that within the next couple of years we will achieve essentially what people call AGI; he said this is not illogical to him and argued that we are practically there today. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, the world's top individual user will use about 100 quadrillion tokens a month. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 As AI advances, people's jobs, defined by purpose, context and meaning, will not change. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 In mid-2026 the top token user Altman knows of was using hundreds of billions of tokens a month. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 AI will not eliminate all jobs. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 NVIDIA's architecture runs every AI model and all data processing and parallel processing tasks. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Jensen Huang Factual 4 Sep 2026 For the first time, anybody in the world can program a computer, using human language. Jensen Huang · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 The average person on Earth went from using effectively zero tokens to about 100,000 tokens a month between early 2020 and mid-2026. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 Altman said that a system "we now have" is capable of discovering new knowledge, doing science, adding huge economic value and creating entire pieces of complex software. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 OpenAI knew early on that using more compute made its AI systems smarter and more capable. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Over the next 5 to 10 years, tasks that now take 1 year will take a month because of AI. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 Sam Altman was a sci-fi and AI enthusiast as a child. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 4 Sep 2026 It is very cheap today to run a 5-watt bulb for an hour. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction Sep 2026 The AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later. Michael Burry · Prediction · Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction Sep 2026 If AI spending stops or slows, the AI trade will come apart. Michael Burry · Prediction · Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell responded in 2025 to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only GiveWell Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell has spent years growing its research capacity and scope to direct significantly more funding to the most impactful opportunities, and 2025 was a milestone in that growth. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 31 Aug 2026 Around $124 million (29% of funds directed) in 2025 went to GiveWell's four Top Charities. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 31 Aug 2026 In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024. GiveWell · Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due GiveWell Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 Loss of human control over AI systems, which Gates thought was many years away, is already being observed. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 Leading AI experts are saying humans may not be able to control these AI systems. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 People will reach a point where they no longer buy things themselves, relying on personal AI agents instead. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI capabilities
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 Of the AI leaders Bill Gates knows, everybody but Elon Musk is worried about AI. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 The AI safety thresholds regarded as warning signs are all being crossed. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 Bill Gates says that when working on malaria and nutrition he pastes long conversations between himself, Claude and ChatGPT to his colleagues. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 Bill Gates sometimes debates topics in a three-way conversation with Claude and ChatGPT. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 AI industry leaders known to Bill Gates are all worried about AI's risks. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 If society does not step up on managing AI, the negative effects of AI will substantially outweigh the positives. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 Capable robots that let AI do physical jobs across the economy will arrive within a couple of years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Bill Gates Factual 29 Aug 2026 People in the AI industry who say AI might have negative effects are being told they are hurting the industry's PR while it tries to raise trillions of dollars. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 26 Aug 2026 The exact criteria for reviewing AI models and the actions to minimize their harms are completely missing. Bill Gates · Factual · 26 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history, even under the best circumstances. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 26 Aug 2026 There is currently no plan to ease the entry into the AI era. Bill Gates · Factual · 26 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 As AI models become more powerful, they could begin to act against human interests and humans could lose control. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 26 Aug 2026 Current AI models are capable of causing cyberattack, bioterrorism and psychosocial risks. Bill Gates · Factual · 26 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 Gates does not think a global slowdown of AI advances will happen, because geopolitical and economic incentives are pushing too hard to go full speed ahead. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 16 Aug 2026 The public has a negative view of AI. Dario Amodei · Factual · 16 Aug 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 15 Aug 2026 The "Pacing the Frontier" letter, in Anthropic's preferred implementation, envisions modulating the pace of the best models without constraining those catching up. Dario Amodei · Factual · 15 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 15 Aug 2026 California's SB 53 and SB 1047 completely exempt companies below a revenue or training-cost threshold ($500M for SB 53), and Anthropic supported SB 53 and was ambivalent on SB 1047. Dario Amodei · Factual · 15 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 15 Aug 2026 The AI testing process Anthropic has advocated at CAISI and the White House involves more rigorous tests for frontier models than for off-frontier models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 15 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 15 Aug 2026 Around February 2026, most of the AI industry was pushing for federal preemption of all state AI regulation, with no apparent federal approach. Dario Amodei · Factual · 15 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will deliver an average ROCE of about 11% for 2026-2027 and above 13% for 2028-2030. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted's dividend policy for financial years 2026-2028 is expected to start at a modest level and increase annually. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 13 Aug 2026 As of August 2026, all Ørsted construction projects, including Hornsea 3 in the UK, are progressing according to schedule and within planned costs. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will deliver 2026 EBITDA above DKK 28 billion excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted's offshore EBITDA excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees was DKK 11.9 billion in H1 2026 versus DKK 10.3 billion in H1 2025, primarily driven by higher wind speeds and higher prices. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 13 Aug 2026 After the Danish Maritime and Commercial High Court ruled in Ørsted's favour in June 2026 in the former Elsam cases, the plaintiffs decided not to appeal. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ørsted Factual 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted's Q2 2026 offshore EBITDA increase (DKK 4.4 billion vs DKK 4.0 billion) was primarily driven by earnings from the Hornsea 3 construction agreement. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted maintains its gross investment guidance of DKK 50-55 billion. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted is progressing according to schedule and within planned costs across all its construction projects. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will announce the proposed dividend level in its Annual Report 2026. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted targets to reinstate dividend distributions for financial year 2026, with the first distribution in 2027. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will reinstate a dividend payout to its shareholders as planned. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 ICE, founded in 2000 by Jeff Sprecher, is a leading global exchange operator and financial data provider built through 25 years of organic growth and acquisitions. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 PSH's stock currently trades at a 35% discount to NAV. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square's portfolio's higher EPS growth and lower valuation than the S&P 500 should increase the likelihood its performance exceeds the S&P 500 over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says "we believe" that neither of two concerns, the long-term impact of AI on ICE's two smaller segments and the competitive threat of perpetual futures to its Exchanges, is likely to impair ICE's earnings power or intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The FDA will likely approve Alcon's AURN001, with blockbuster potential beyond Alcon's commercial targets. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Other
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 If routing legislation were enacted, it would have a minimal impact on Visa and Mastercard. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Promise 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square intends to begin an expanded marketing program for PSH to help narrow the NAV discount. Bill Ackman · Promise · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement expresses a belief that these tailwinds should enable Microsoft to sustain its high-teens historical earnings growth over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 Over the last several quarters, revenue growth across all three of ICE's data subsegments has consistently accelerated. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global's future earnings growth will be almost exclusively determined by its benchmark businesses rather than Market Intelligence. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 QSR trades at 17 times earnings, a material discount to peers and to the speaker's view of intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The quote states an expectation that Alcon's operating margin, described as currently 20%, will rise to 25% or greater over the next several years. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global Indices has a long runway for continued double-digit growth. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global earnings are likely to compound in the low-to-mid teens, driving an annualized return in the mid-20s% if its valuation returns to an appropriate level. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes its portfolio companies will ultimately deliver strong EPS growth and a substantial increase in the valuations investors assign to them. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Ackman says "we are confident" that perpetual futures hold little if any appeal for institutional investors, who he says drive over about 95% of ICE's trading volume. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes Alcon's mid-term revenue growth target of 6%-8% remains credible. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square's portfolio companies trade at 19 times its estimate of current earnings per share. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates ICE's more competitive lines, consolidated feeds and fixed income reference data, are only a single-digit percentage of FIDS segment revenue and a de minimis share of enterprise revenue. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
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GiveWell

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“We estimate that the programs supported by the funds we directed this year will save an additional 86,000 lives.”

GiveWell 31 August 2026 GiveWell's 2025 Metrics and Impact (The GiveWell Blog)

GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

This is GiveWell's own model estimate of lives saved, and the claim only reports what GiveWell estimates; it can be checked in its published materials, but the outcome is not independently verifiable.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives.” (said 31 August 2026). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_0a8d264dc403, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0a8d264dc403

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.