Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 9 Jan 2026 AI's rate of improvement is already starting to disrupt job demand in software development. Bill Gates · Factual · 9 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Gates said he believes health care can be improved dramatically in all countries by using AI both to accelerate the development of innovations and directly in the delivery of health care. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he believes that within the next decade the world will get back on track and enter a new era of unprecedented progress. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 The price of AI is falling faster than Moore's Law. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Falling AI token prices will drive huge demand for AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 It is very likely that AI chips will become cheap and abundant within five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Leading AI application companies start with one model but soon use 12, 50 or more models. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Many of the world's best AI researchers are only 22, 23 or 24 years old. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 DeepSeek's model is on par with Claude 3.5 Sonnet, GPT-4o and Gemini on almost all benchmarks. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 With hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars being invested, the unit cost of AI companies will drop sharply over the next decade. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Within 6 to 12 months of a frontier model's release, a small model with the same capabilities appears. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Tyler Cowen held a Conversations with Tyler episode with Brendan Foody, published by 2026-01-07. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Andreessen said he tends to think the AI industry will be structured similarly to the computer industry, with a very small number of giant models running in huge data centers and a cascade of smaller models below. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 The revenue growth rate of leading AI companies is faster than that of any previous technology wave Andreessen has seen. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 AI models will cascade down to very small models running on single chips embedded in every physical object. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Consumer AI products commonly have monthly price tiers of $200 or $300. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 There are 5 billion people on Earth using some version of mobile broadband Internet. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 The smartest AI models will always be at the top, while small models will be greater in number. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies caught up to the frontier of the AI industry. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 Cursor, though it started by calling large models, is building its own AI model. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Andreessen said he highly doubts that the product forms people use today (as of January 2026) will be the same in five or ten years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 7 Jan 2026 China's open-source model strategy has created global price competition in AI. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 AI deployment for real-world impact will evolve from standalone models to systems. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 Future AI systems will build rich scaffolds that orchestrate multiple models and agents, account for memory and entitlements, and enable rich and safe tool use. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Specialized manipulation tasks using special purpose grippers, materials, planning, sensing and some machine learning may lead to enormous application markets. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Most of the early humanoid robot companies will quietly shut down and disappear, as happened with self driving car companies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Lack of robotics progress will negatively affect the quality of life of newly elderly people for the next couple of decades. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Without new types of mechanical systems, walking humanoid robots will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Own records only Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 With about 7,000 dark signals and perhaps 1,000 vehicles on the road, Waymo did not have enough human staff to handle the volume of assistance requests during its outage. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Brooks said that, as of the end of 2022, he could not find a single video of a demo of an actual eVTOL flight profile with actual people aboard, of the sort said to generate eVTOL taxi revenue by 2025. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 For self driving taxis, human intervention rate will be the key metric because it determines profitability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 When Brooks predicted in 2018 that something big would appear in AI, he did not know it would be LLMs. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the next ten years deployable robot dexterity may improve markedly, but not in the way the current humanoid robot hype suggests. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Research failed Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Waymo added two cities in 2025, Austin and Atlanta. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Boeing's Starliner will fly again, potentially twice in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Successful quantum computers will directly emulate physical systems for specialized problem classes rather than run conventional general computation on quantum hardware. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will be many interesting demonstrations, but ten years is too short a period for a clear winner to emerge. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Tesla is not on a path to becoming a real self driving taxi service. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 New companies will become specialists in boxing in and controlling LLMs. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 No clear winner among new neural computation approaches beyond linear threshold systems will emerge by 2036, though there will be multiple candidates. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Since 1991 Brooks has distinguished between situatedness and embodiment as two separate properties a machine or creature can have. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The successful humanoid robots of the future will be very different from those being hyped today. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 It seems likely that Waymo has a good shot at getting operations running in five additional US cities (Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando) in 2026, which would double its total number of US cities to 10. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin is likely to come close to achieving what it says it intends to do and when for suborbital and orbital flights. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Mostly false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The new dexterity in robot manipulation may turn out to be special purpose rather than human-hand-like. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next ten years there will be a lot of activity developing guard rails around LLMs to make them useful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The trends do not look like EVs will reach 12% of US new car sales in 2027, even with a huge uptick. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks seriously doubts a human will land on Mars before 2040, and says the earliest Mars settlement will not happen before 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin is under contract with NASA to land two astronauts on the Moon for a 30-day stay in 2030 using Blue Moon Mark 2. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks says he is confident that he is right on his points (a) and (b) from his blog post, at least for the next ten years; the material does not say what (a) and (b) are. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Humanoid robots may not turn out to be the future of robotics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2026 Once pick orientation and vacuum gripper are selected, suction grasping is open loop, relying on suction force and compliance of gripper and object. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Weekly suborbital paying-customer flights (Blue Origin) may become feasible by 2028 if customer demand exists. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks does not think any robot able to do the last 10 yards of delivery from the street will be deployed this decade, and perhaps not even demonstrated. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Human spaceflight will change from its stasis in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Rodney Brooks said he does not think Jonathan's company will reach its goal of general purpose humanoid robots even within Jonathan's lifetime. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Putting humans on Mars will take much longer than putting a crewed colony on the Moon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks said that press releases about two basic human-piloted capabilities, including a point-to-point test flight in Dubai, suggest to him that the company is still years away from operating an actual air taxi service. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Private space stations may lead to more humans flying on orbital flights than the current roughly 28 per year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The current hype does not mean that results over the next decade will pay back the massive investments going into AI and robotics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will likely be a jump in the number of Blue Origin suborbital flights in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2026 Brooks will talk explicitly about the two technologies he has put in his five prediction topics, one of them robots with humanoid form, for each of the next ten years. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Deployable robot dexterity will remain far worse than human hands beyond 2036. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 If both Waymo and Zoox fail, self driving car deployment in the US will grind to a halt. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The SpaceX Starship-based crewed Moon landing will not happen in 2027, and may never happen. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks is doubtful that a new quantum error-correction method will emerge, be fully tested and reach production at scale within the next ten years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Space station building will pick up markedly over the next few years in anticipation of the ISS's end. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Companies that can control their LLMs will be able to deliver usable products. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Machine learning will not provide the force sensing and control capabilities needed for safe elder-care robots. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the US, Waymo and Zoox are the players that will determine whether self driving cars succeed or are abandoned. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 What these companies are working towards is not happening, even at a tiny scale, anytime soon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Waymo looks to have a shot at succeeding and is unlikely to lose first place in the self driving taxi race. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next 10 years the winning quantum computers will be those solving real problems in materials science, chemistry and physics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin may make a soft landing on the Moon in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 LLMs that can explain which data led to which outputs will be key to deployments that are not annoying, dangerous or stupid. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In 2026 humanoid domestic robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos with very little actual product. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Although valuations may rise before falling, the September Oracle craze and subsequent events will in hindsight be seen as the beginning of the end of the AI bubble. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Gary Marcus does not expect his 2026 predictions to be as on target as his 2025 predictions were. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 No country will take a decisive lead in the generative AI race in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 2025 will be remembered as the year of the peak AI bubble and the moment Wall Street began losing confidence in generative AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Trump may eventually distance himself from AI because of the backlash. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic AI will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 By Gary Marcus's own count, sixteen of his seventeen high-confidence predictions about 2025 proved correct. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 (or 2027). Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Backlash to generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Jan 2026 AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025. Gary Marcus · Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 Anthropic decided not to put ads in Claude, a decision partly based on the belief that AI technology is different because of how personal user conversations are. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 The founders considered the name "Sparrow Systems" before choosing Anthropic. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 Anthropic is open about the fact that its models sometimes make things up. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2026 A lot of people use Claude for medical questions. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2026 Thiel said that in theory AI could be slowed with genuine, deep cooperation across the whole world, but that he thinks this would require something like a one world government with real teeth and real force. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2026 AI policy and governance
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Factual AI capabilities

“It's completely open - source, and anyone can download and run it.”

Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder 7 January 2026 2026 Early Interview with Marc Andreessen: AI Revolution Just Started (36Kr)

The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-01-07 for the DeepSeek model under discussion (for example DeepSeek-R1 or V3). True: the model weights are publicly released under a permissive or open licence (such as MIT) and can be freely downloaded (for example from Hugging Face) and run locally by anyone with suitable hardware. Mostly true: the weights are openly downloadable and runnable, but 'completely open-source' slightly overstates it because training data or full training code were not released (open weights rather than fully open source). Mixed: the weights are downloadable only under significant licence restrictions, or only some variants are open. Mostly false: only limited or distilled versions are downloadable. False: the weights are not publicly downloadable, and access is only by API.

Evidence

  1. DeepSeek-R1 Release DeepSeek · 20 January 2025
    “Code and models are released under the MIT License: Distill & commercialize freely!”
  2. DeepSeek-R1/README.md at main · deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1 GitHub (deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1 repository) · 20 January 2025
    “This code repository and the model weights are licensed under the MIT License.”
  3. Understanding the DeepSeek model license: Balancing openness and responsibility Black Duck · 4 February 2025
    “Although the source code for DeepSeek is licensed under the permissive MIT license, the DeepSeek model itself is governed by the DeepSeek license, which does not meet the definition of an open source license.”
  4. Open Weights vs Open Source: The Real Difference (2026) geotoolbox.ai · 3 July 2026
    “But DeepSeek does not release its training data or full training code, so you cannot reproduce or fully audit the model.”

Reasoning

DeepSeek's R1 release announcement and the R1 repository README both say the model weights are released under the MIT License (E1, E2). That meets the criteria for openly downloadable, permissively licensed weights. However, E4 says DeepSeek does not release its training data or full training code, so "completely open-source" overstates it: these are open weights, not fully open source. E3 says the DeepSeek model itself is governed by a DeepSeek licence that does not meet the definition of an open-source licence, while E2 says the R1 model weights are licensed under MIT; the quoted passage from E3 does not specify which model it refers to.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.” (said 7 January 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_0760c435ee7e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0760c435ee7e

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.