Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 49 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise Feb 2018 Ørsted targets at least 95% of its heat and power generation to be green in 2023. Ørsted · Promise · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's Wind Power EBITDA increased by 74% to DKK 20.6 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted has established a new unit to explore energy storage and solar PV projects and is looking more closely at the onshore wind market. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 In 2017 Ørsted continued building out offshore wind and biomass generation, divested its oil and gas business, and decided to be coal-free by 2023. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2018 Ørsted's return on capital employed rose to 25% in 2017 from 17% in 2016, disregarding DKK 4.3 billion of non-recurring gas contract income in 2016. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ørsted Promise Feb 2018 Ørsted's future guidance will only include the effect from existing offshore wind partnership agreements. Ørsted · Promise · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 26 Jan 2018 Unlike the Internet, which quickly produced email, the World Wide Web and millions of commercial ventures, blockchain's only application, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, does not even fulfill its stated purpose. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 26 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz has since reversed course almost completely and is now deeply invested in healthcare. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Supersonic passenger flight with the Concorde existed previously but no longer exists. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Academic rumblings about the limits of Deep Learning are already happening as of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There is a real possibility that a flying car will not be purchasable by any US resident with enough money even by 2050 (original prediction: not before 2036). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Autonomous drone technology is about to tip and become very widely usable. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Point-to-point transport on Earth in about an hour using a BF rocket will not happen in the author's lifetime without a major new breakthrough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said that probably the single, No. 1 thing "we" try to get "our companies" to do is raise prices. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 The autonomous drone can fly through underground parking garages without collisions. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 The autonomous drones are based on deep learning. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen described his firm's approach as one where, if the partner closest to a deal has a very strong degree of positive commitment and enthusiasm for it, the firm should make the investment even if others in the room disagree, though the partner is expected to stress test their own thinking first. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said that "that", which in context seems to mean his firm's deep involvement in health, was "a response to the hedge fund thing". He added that very smart founders had been telling the firm it was "dumb"; the passage does not say what "the hedge fund thing" was. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Realising the hyperloop will require many new technologies and designs, none of which existed before, for every aspect of the system. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Marc Andreessen has only seen the first season of the TV show Silicon Valley. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Underground car-pallet transport at over 100mph will not become a real, viable mass-market service in the author's lifetime, only small demonstration projects. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Cities will be changed by driverless cars through special lanes, geo-fencing, altered pick-up/drop-off norms, parking regulation changes and other incremental modifications. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the American economy, the rate of job creation and destruction is falling rather than rising. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 The number one theme among struggling Andreessen Horowitz portfolio companies is that they do not charge enough for their product. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz formally creates a red team to argue the opposing side of a deal when necessary. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks will publish on his blog dated predictions covering the next thirty-two years. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 As of the end of 2017, IPv6 adoption was far from complete, with network traffic categories on IPv6 ranging from under 2% to just over 20%. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Sky Deal's autonomous consumer drones will be a very big advance in what hobbyists can do. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 The sesame scene in season one of Silicon Valley is loosely based on Peter Thiel. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Research failed Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen took part in a debate with Peter Thiel at the Milton Conference. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Horseless carriages did not simply replace horse-drawn carriages one for one but required new infrastructure and ownership and usage models. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Robotics, AI and ML will not produce a general intelligence that can suddenly do all the things humans or chimpanzees can do. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Entrepreneurial opportunity is more likely to be in areas people think of as cult and fringe. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Warren Buffett invested in Heinz ketchup. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks previously identified underestimating adoption time of new technologies as the seventh of seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Driverless cars will not simply replace human-driven cars one for one. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the months before January 2018, Rodney Brooks publicly criticised what he considers hype around AI and machine learning. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen prepared for weeks for his debate with Peter Thiel, expecting Thiel not to prepare. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The things being described, which the speaker said would be used for drones, will become things people rely on to make their lives safer and better, and will be taken completely for granted. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A conversational agent with long-term context that avoids repeated patterns will go from lab demo (no earlier than 2023) to widespread deployment on platforms like Google Home and Amazon Echo by 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks has worked in both Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for over forty years. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz assumes it will be invested in each company it backs for 10 or more years. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Each general partner at Andreessen Horowitz can make a deal without a vote or consensus. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the movie "I, Robot" a robot rescued the Will Smith character after a car accident at the expense of letting a young girl die, a key plot aspect. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said "we" repeatedly see people fail because they price too low ("too hungry to eat") and so cannot afford the sales and marketing needed to get anybody to buy the product. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Friendster's investors were, more likely than not, unwilling and unable to invest in Facebook because they were conflicted, as Friendster's founder would have objected to investment in a competing company. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Brooks said he had promised in 2018 to review his predictions at the start of every year until 2050, thirty-two years in total. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz's portfolio companies are getting more assertive about entering markets that earlier founders may not have been willing to enter. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 Among donors who gave in 2015, about 35% gave again in 2016, down from about 40% who gave again in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Nike's emerging markets comprise about 30% of its revenue. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Pershing Square restructured its Herbalife short position into put options to limit downside exposure, as discussed in its Q3 2017 investor letter. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2018 In recent months Pershing Square purchased preferred stock of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 If GiveWell influenced the same proportion of unattributed donations as attributed ones, it would have influenced an additional $20 million not in its headline money moved figure. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Herbalife's recently filed 10-K cover page reports 87.4 million shares outstanding, of which only 22.7 million were held by non-affiliates as of June 30, 2017. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2018 From January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2015, investors in the Pershing Square strategy earned a 20.5% compounded annual return versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2018 If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016 GiveWell saw growth in the number of donors and amount donated in every donor size category reviewed, except donors giving $1 million or more per year. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016, donors who gave $2,000 or more accounted for about 90% of GiveWell's money moved, excluding Good Ventures. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
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Marc Andreessen

Open its page

Prediction Technology

“which turns out is going to be just a giant market in industries, oil and gas, and insurance”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 1 January 2018 The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Marc Andreessen (#163) (Tim Ferriss blog)

Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Prediction with no horizon and vague 'giant market'.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_03d941f1749d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_03d941f1749d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.