Claims

Prediction · Economics and markets

“If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author · 1 January 2023 · Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

The claim is explicitly conditional. Step 1: find the actual year-on-year growth in US electric vehicle (EV) sales for 2023–2025, using the battery-electric measure the claim's base figure used (about 5.8% share in 2022). If growth averaged roughly 68% a year (55–80%), judge on the actual 2025 EV share of US new car sales: true if 25–31%, mostly true if 23–25% or 31–33%, mostly false if 18–23% or above 33%, false if below 18%. Step 2: if growth did not average roughly 68%, the condition failed and the claim is judged on its arithmetic. Take the 2022 base share and compound it at 68% a year for three years. True if the result is within ±2 points of 28%, mostly true if within ±4 points, false otherwise. In this second case, the actual 2025 share differing from 28% does not falsify the claim.

Evidence

1. Despite Q4 Collapse, 2025 EV Sales Decline Only 2% Versus 2024; Policy Shifts, New Product Set Stage for Next Chapter - Cox Automotive Inc. Cox Automotive Inc. · 4 May 2026

   “total EV sales last year came in just shy of 2024’s 1.30 million. In fact, 2025 was the second-best year on record for EV sales in the U.S., and the EV share of total market sales was a strong 7.8%, down from 8.1% a year earlier”

2. Column: Robot taxis? Hyperloops? A top technologist wages war on tech's hype machine Los Angeles Times · 20 January 2023

   “The growth rate in EV sales became turbocharged in 2022 — increasing by 68% in the third quarter over the same quarter a year earlier. If that growth rate continued, then EVs would constitute 28% of new car sales in 2025.”

3. In a Down Market, EV Sales Soar to New Record - Cox Automotive Inc. Cox Automotive Inc. · 13 January 2023

   “sales volumes past 800,000 for the first time, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, an increase of 65% versus 2021. EV share of the total market hit 5.8%, up from 3.2% in 2021.”

4. EV Model Availability and Sales | Argonne National Laboratory Argonne National Laboratory · 24 November 2025

   “Over 1.5 million EVs were sold in 2024, an 8% increase over last year.”

Reasoning

E3 puts US EV sales in 2022 just over 800,000, a 5.8% share. E1 reports 2025 EV sales about 2% lower than 2024's roughly 1.30 million, with a 7.8% share. So growth from 2023 to 2025 fell far short of 68% a year, and the claim's condition did not hold. Under step 2 of the criteria, the claim is judged on its arithmetic: 5.8% × 1.68³ ≈ 27.5%, which is within 2 points of the 28% the claim gives. E2 confirms that 28% was the projection made.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.” (said 1 January 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_02baf92fca64, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_02baf92fca64