Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 36 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's PBC structure has little bearing on decisions about productization, deployment and revenue generation, beyond the legal protections discussed. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Feb 2022 Tyler Cowen said it seemed to him at that point that the UFO footage was not of the Russian military. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Feb 2022 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 Feb 2022 Tyler Cowen published a multi-part Conversation with Chuck Klosterman, longer than usual. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 12 Feb 2022 TechCrunch interviewed Tyler Cowen about crypto. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 12 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 As of January 2022, Tesla is seeing alleviation of supply chain constraints in almost every area. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla sees its energy business as probably reaching a terawatt-hour per year in the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Tesla does not have incubators. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 The chip limitation on Tesla production should alleviate in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Long term, effectively every car will have FSD. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Many of the supply chain shortages affecting Tesla are alleviating as of January 2022. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 A robotaxi ride will cost less than the subsidized value of a bus ticket. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Tesla short-changed its energy business in 2021, with vehicles taking priority over energy. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will possibly announce new factory locations by the end of 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Interventions per mile in Tesla's FSD beta are trending toward a very small number and the pace of improvement is fast. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Dojo should reduce the cost of training Tesla's neural networks. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he thought "we" were completely confident at that point that "it" would be achieved. In the surrounding remarks he discussed robotaxis and gave his personal guess that full self-driving would be achieved that year. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said "it" is not a long-term thing because a great amount of chip fabs are going to be built. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla cars becoming self-driving via software update might be the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's Dojo supercomputer appears on track to be doing something useful in summer 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla thinks its stationary storage products (Powerwall and Megapack) will transition to an iron-based, non-nickel battery chemistry. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Technology
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said that Tesla thinks that, over time, full self-driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Manganese could be part of the future of stationary storage chemistry, though primarily iron. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Once full self-driving is delivered, millions of Tesla cars in the U.S. will suddenly have about four or five times the utility overnight. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he thinks that once cars are autonomous, the cost of transport may drop by something like a factor of four or five. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's Dojo supercomputer is not required for Tesla to achieve full self-driving. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 To fund the Netflix purchase, Pershing Square unwound the substantial majority of its interest rate hedge over several days, generating proceeds of $1.25 billion. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's improving free cash flow profile should allow continued investment in growth and return of cash to shareholders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square's interest rate hedge notional size was reduced by 80%, its retained hedge term extended, and its dollar investment in hedges reduced by more than 90%. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 Anthropic pursues its mission primarily through generative model research and AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Other researchers and engineers have been using Anthropic's released interpretability tools and watching its videos. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei said she thinks part of what Anthropic's AI safety research is seeing is that different sized models exhibit different safety issues. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Promise 2022 SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 A few jobs before Anthropic, Daniela Amodei worked at the tech startup Stripe. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic's internal scientists red-team its models by asking them questions to find unwanted behaviors. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic structures its teams with capabilities research as a central pillar and safety research wrapping around every project. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2022 In 2021 Chipotle generated average restaurant sales of $2.6 million, exceeding the 2015 peak of $2.5 million. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined the startup Stripe when it had about 40 people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei said the importance of security, such as keeping models from being stolen by bad actors, is "a unanimous kind of thing" across labs. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2022 The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined Stripe when it was not much bigger than Anthropic is now. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei worked at several NGOs in Washington DC early in her career. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 In 2022, Daniela Amodei said there were no clear guidelines for how to avoid advancing race dynamics or act safely, and that every lab was "kind of" working this out on its own. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI labs on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Risk premiums should continue to rise. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic does societal impacts research on the short- and medium-term effects of language models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Stripe, when she worked there, operated in the highly regulated financial services space with many checks and balances on the company. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square expects its portfolio companies to continue to compound their intrinsic values at even higher rates than before due to their currently reduced valuations. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic released a writeup on Garcon, the infrastructure tool its team used for interpretability research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Science and research methods
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Speaking as "we", the statement said they believe CP's acquisition of KCS will be transformational for CP's rail network. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG can grow revenues at an annual rate approaching double digits for more than a decade. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Promise 2022 If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic was founded at the beginning of 2021 by a team of seven people who moved together from OpenAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic does scaling laws research to predict empirically what properties emerge in language models at various sizes. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Dario Amodei was a very early fan of GiveWell, she thought around 2007 or 2008. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Philosophy, ethics and society
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Bill Ackman

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Prediction Economics and markets

“We believe that these attractive attributes will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author 2022 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square 2021 Annual Letter to Shareholders (GuruFocus)

The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vague prediction about investor perception with no horizon or measure.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events.” (said 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_00999cdcefef, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_00999cdcefef

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.