Claims

Promise · Their own work or organisation

“This year, we expect to complete our review of the RCT results and to make a decision about whether to direct additional funding to support New Incentives’ work.”

GiveWell, unsigned blog post · 28 May 2020 · GiveWell's plans for 2020 (The GiveWell Blog)

In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said resolved false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: by 2020-12-31 GiveWell had both completed its review of the New Incentives RCT results and made a decision (yes or no) on directing additional funding to New Incentives, as shown in dated GiveWell publications (e.g., a grant page, top charity announcement or review). Mostly true: both were done in 2020 with only a small slip in detail (e.g., the decision was made in December and published in early January 2021, with the decision documented as made in 2020). Mostly false: only one part was finished in 2020 (e.g., review finished but decision deferred), or both were done only in 2021 or later. False: GiveWell's late-2020 updates state the review or decision was still ongoing or postponed beyond 2020.

Evidence

1. Recommendation to Open Philanthropy for Grants in November 2020 GiveWell · February 2021 Own record

   “Before the end of 2021, we expect to decide whether to recommend additional funding that would enable New Incentives to scale up to new cl”

2. New Incentives (Conditional Cash Transfers to Increase Infant Vaccination) - November 2020 Version GiveWell · November 2020 Own record

   “GiveWell has followed this RCT closely and believes that it meets high quality standards.”

3. Our recommendations for giving in 2020 - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 19 November 2020 Own record

   “We named New Incentives a top charity this year after considering many factors, including the results of a high-quality study of its program.”

Reasoning

GiveWell's November 2020 review page says it followed the New Incentives RCT closely and judged it to meet high quality standards (E2). Its November 19, 2020 recommendations post says it named New Incentives a top charity that year based partly on the RCT results (E3). Together these indicate the review was completed and a funding-related decision was made in 2020. However, E1 shows that a further decision on additional funding to scale New Incentives to new clinics was deferred to before the end of 2021, so the promise was only partly fulfilled; all evidence comes from GiveWell itself.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives.” (said 28 May 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f3f4a6e2621f, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f3f4a6e2621f