| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 9 May 2026 | About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 17 Mar 2026 | Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Aug 2025 | GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | Apr 2024 | René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 12 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 1 Jan 2018 | Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 12 Dec 2012 | Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2001 | Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 | Economics and markets |
“the U.S. government right now is both very alarmed about this problem of potential deep fakes and then they're also trying to outlaw blockchains.”
Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 12 June 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk)
As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of June 2023. The claim has two parts: (a) the US government was alarmed about deepfakes and (b) the US government was trying to outlaw blockchains. True: evidence shows official US government concern about deepfakes (e.g. statements from the White House, FTC, DHS or Congress, or bills introduced) and actual efforts by US government bodies to ban or prohibit blockchain technology or cryptocurrencies as such. Mostly true: (a) holds and US agencies took broad actions aimed at eliminating major parts of the crypto industry (e.g. the SEC treating most tokens as illegal securities, 'Operation Choke Point 2.0' banking pressure) that could fairly be called trying to outlaw them, though there was no formal ban. Mixed: (a) holds, but (b) is supported only by enforcement actions and regulation of specific firms, not an effort to outlaw the technology. Mostly false: (a) holds but (b) is clearly contradicted, with no ban effort and policy focused on regulating rather than prohibiting. False: neither part is supported.
Evidence
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 8 June 2023
“As I’ve said numerous times, the vast majority of crypto tokens meet the investment contract test.”
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 8 June 2023
“Given that most crypto tokens are subject to the securities laws, it follows that most crypto intermediaries have to comply with securities laws as well.”
- FACT SHEET: President Biden to Sign Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets | The White House The White House (archived Biden administration site) · 9 March 2022
“The United States must maintain technological leadership in this rapidly growing space, supporting innovation while mitigating the risks for consumers, businesses, the broader financial system, and the climate.”
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chair Gary Gensler) · 8 June 2023
“As I’ve said numerous times, the vast majority of crypto tokens meet the investment contract test. Not liking the message isn’t the same thing as not receiving it.”
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chair Gary Gensler) · 8 June 2023
“Regardless, however, of the ledger being used, be it a spreadsheet, a database, or blockchain technology, when investors put their money at risk, it’s the economic realities of the investment that matter.”
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chair Gary Gensler) · 8 June 2023
“Thus, crypto security issuers need to register the offer and sale of their investment contracts with the SEC or meet the requirements for an exemption.”
- We’ve Seen This Story Before - remarks before the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chair Gary Gensler) · 8 June 2023
“Still, for those tokens that are used exclusively within their blockchain ecosystems, the staff has shown willingness to provide no-action letters.”
- Blumenthal played his own deepfake to warn Congress about the dangers of AI CT Public · 17 May 2023
““Weaponized disinformation, housing discrimination, the harassment of women and impersonation fraud, voice cloning, deep fakes,” Blumenthal said.”
Reasoning
Part (a) is supported: in May 2023 Senator Blumenthal warned Congress about AI harms including deepfakes (E8). For part (b), the SEC Chair stated in June 2023 that the vast majority of crypto tokens meet the investment contract test and that most crypto intermediaries must comply with securities laws (E1, E2). This matches the criteria's 'mostly true' example of the SEC treating most tokens as securities. However, the same remarks frame this as registration and compliance rather than prohibition, and mention no-action relief (E5, E6, E7). No evidence shows a formal ban on blockchain technology.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains.” (said 12 June 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b40853a389fa, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b40853a389fa
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.