| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 9 May 2026 | About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 17 Mar 2026 | Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Aug 2025 | GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | Apr 2024 | René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 12 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 1 Jan 2018 | Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 12 Dec 2012 | Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2001 | Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 | Economics and markets |
“GPT-5 is significantly better at healthcare related queries.”
Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO 9 August 2025 Transcript: Sam Altman Interview on Huge Conversations Podcast (Singju Post)
GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True if benchmark results available around 2025-08-09 (e.g., HealthBench or HealthBench Hard, medical QA benchmarks, hallucination rates on health queries) from OpenAI's published evaluations or independent tests show that GPT-5 performed significantly better on healthcare-related queries than earlier OpenAI models such as GPT-4o and o3: a clear, material improvement, not a marginal one. Mostly true if GPT-5 improved clearly on most health measures but only modestly against the strongest earlier model (e.g., o3) on some. Mixed if the improvements were significant on some health benchmarks but negligible or reversed on others, or if OpenAI's figures show gains that independent evaluations do not confirm. Mostly false if the gains were only marginal or limited to a narrow sub-measure presented as general. False if the evidence shows GPT-5 performed no better or worse than earlier models on healthcare queries.
Evidence
- Introducing GPT-5 OpenAI · 7 August 2025 Own record
“The model scores significantly higher than any previous model on HealthBench”
- GPT-5 System Card - OpenAI Deployment Safety Hub OpenAI · 7 August 2025 Own record
“Errors in potentially urgent situations are reduced over 50x from GPT-4o and over 8x from OpenAI o3.”
- Clinical Accuracy and Safety Concerns Following GPT-5 Public Demonstration in Cancer Care PubMed Central (authors at University Hospital Tübingen, per data statement) · 29 November 2025
“Overall concordance with tumour board recommendations was 79/100 for GPT-4o-mini (95% CI 70.02–85.83%), and 85/100 for both GPT-4o and GPT-5”
- Clinical Accuracy and Safety Concerns Following GPT-5 Public Demonstration in Cancer Care PubMed Central (authors at University Hospital Tübingen, per data statement) · 29 November 2025
“found identical 85% concordance to GPT-4o, contradicting superiority claims.”
Reasoning
OpenAI's launch post says GPT-5 scores "significantly higher than any previous model on HealthBench" (E1). Its system card reports that errors in potentially urgent health situations fell more than 50x from GPT-4o and more than 8x from o3 (E2). Both are OpenAI's own evaluations. An independent study of 100 cancer-care cases found GPT-5 and GPT-4o equally in line with tumour-board recommendations, at 85/100 each, which runs against the claimed superiority (E3, E4). Under the criteria, gains in OpenAI's figures that an independent evaluation does not confirm count as mixed, though the independent study covers only one narrow clinical task.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries.” (said 9 August 2025). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_a0968b3dfb9d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a0968b3dfb9d
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.