Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“As it happened, although there were more anomalies with the thrusters the crew would have landed safely had they been on board.”

Rodney Brooks, author on own blog · 1 January 2025 · Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2025-01-01. True: official NASA or Boeing post-flight statements or investigation findings say that Starliner had further thruster anomalies during its uncrewed return in September 2024, and that it landed safely in a way that crew would have survived (for example, NASA officials saying the crew would have been safe). Mostly true: both points hold, but a minor detail differs (for example, the anomalies were in a different thruster system, or NASA's assessment was qualified). Mixed: one part holds and the other is unclear or disputed. For example, there were anomalies, but NASA said crew safety could not be confirmed. Mostly false: NASA's assessment says a crewed return would have carried significant unresolved risk, though the capsule did land intact. False: there were no further thruster anomalies, or official findings say the crew would not have landed safely.

Evidence

1. Astronauts would have been fine on Boeing's Starliner during landing, NASA says Space.com · 9 September 2024

   “If we'd have had a crew on board the spacecraft, we would have followed the same back away sequence from the space station, the same deorbit burn and executed the same entry. And so it would have been a safe, successful landing with the crew on board,”

2. 'We almost did have a really terrible day.' NASA now says Boeing's 1st Starliner astronaut flight was a 'Type A mishap' Space.com · 19 February 2026

   “The spacecraft experienced "an unexpected crew module propulsion failure," Isaacman said, and lacked "fault tolerance" in its thrusters throughout the reentry to Earth's atmosphere.”

3. Next Crewed Boeing Starliner Flight Not Until 2028 SpacePolicyOnline · 28 September 2026

   “Starliner CFT also experienced helium leaks while on orbit and, during reentry, a thruster in the Crew Module failed. No one was aboard and the capsule landed safely, but it was another indication of engineering lapses that have bedeviled the program since the beginning.”

Reasoning

E1 quotes an official saying that with a crew on board it would have been a safe, successful landing. E4, an independent report, says a Crew Module thruster failed during reentry of the uncrewed flight and that the capsule landed safely, which supports the claim of further thruster anomalies. As of 2025-01-01, both parts of the criteria hold. E3 describes a 2026 NASA reassessment noting the thrusters lacked fault tolerance during reentry, but this came after the judging date.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_7d8be5aa27c5, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7d8be5aa27c5