| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 9 May 2026 | About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 17 Mar 2026 | Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Aug 2025 | GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | Apr 2024 | René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 12 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 1 Jan 2018 | Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 12 Dec 2012 | Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2001 | Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 | Economics and markets |
“The political donations of old Twitter were 99% Democrat.”
Elon Musk, interviewee 19 March 2024 Elon Musk Don Lemon Interview Transcript (Rev)
Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Read 'political donations of old Twitter' as political contributions from Twitter employees and the company's PAC before the October 2022 acquisition, as tracked by FEC/OpenSecrets data. True: about 98% or more went to Democrats or Democratic-aligned recipients in the relevant cycles (such as 2018 to 2022). Mostly true: about 95 to 98%. Mostly false: a clear majority but under 95% went to Democrats, or 99% holds only for one narrow subset that is presented as the whole. False: Democrats did not receive a clear majority (under about 75%).
Evidence
- Twitter - Influence Watch InfluenceWatch
“In the 2020 election cycle, Twitter employees donated almost $937,257 to political candidates, with $193,460 going to President Joe Biden, and 98.47% of all donations going to Democrats.”
- Twitter employees donated almost exclusively to Democrats during midterms New York Post · 16 December 2022
“Over 99% of these funds was funneled to Democrats, while Republicans received a paltry $451 — or .27%.”
- Elon Musk’s employees don’t share his politics Semafor · 30 October 2024
“In 2020, employees from SpaceX and Tesla respectively donated seven and nine times the amount to Democratic candidates and their PACs than to the GOP, OpenSecrets data shows. Employees at Twitter, which Musk did not own at the time, contributed 15 times more money to Democrats or progressive-leaning PACs during that election cycle, according to OpenSecrets.”
- Twitter employees continued massive donations to Democrats in 2022, records show Washington Examiner · 16 December 2022
“Employees at Twitter overwhelmingly donated to Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, continuing a trend”
Reasoning
E2 reports that over 99% of Twitter employee donations in the 2022 midterms went to Democrats, with Republicans getting 0.27%. E1 puts the Democratic share of employee donations to candidates at 98.47% for the 2020 cycle. Both figures are in or above the criteria's "true" range. However, E3 says that in 2020, citing OpenSecrets, employees gave Democrats or progressive PACs 15 times as much as the GOP. That works out to roughly 94% under a broader measure, which is below 95%. Overall the evidence shows an overwhelmingly Democratic share, near but not always at 99%, and none of the evidence covers the company PAC.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats.” (said 19 March 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_7318dfdb1c43, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7318dfdb1c43
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.