| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 9 May 2026 | About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 17 Mar 2026 | Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Aug 2025 | GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | Apr 2024 | René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 12 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 1 Jan 2018 | Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 12 Dec 2012 | Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2001 | Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 | Economics and markets |
“We are told this is the highest score ever recorded for a service company in any industry.”
Jeff Bezos, CEO, writing in Amazon shareholder letter 2001 To our shareholders: Ouch. It's been a brutal year (2000 letter) (Amazon IR)
Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Test both the score and the record it is said to be. True: the American Customer Satisfaction Index gave Amazon a score of 84 for the period referred to, and ACSI records show that no service company in any industry had scored higher up to then. Mostly true: the score was 84 and Amazon did report being told this, but ACSI records show a minor qualification, such as a tie with another company or the record being limited to a particular sector. Mixed: the score is right but the 'highest ever' part is doubtful or only partly supported. Mostly false: the score is right but another service company had a clearly higher score, or the record covered only a narrow category presented as all service industries. False: Amazon's ACSI score was not 84, or no such statement or score existed.
Evidence
- 1100q3.doc American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) / ASQ / CFI Group / University of Michigan Business School (press release) · 27 November 2000
“Amazon.com scores a stunning 84, higher than any service sector company in ACSI, and”
- 1100q3.doc American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) / ASQ / CFI Group / University of Michigan Business School (press release) · 27 November 2000
“Heinz, a consistently high performer in the ACSI, has led the food processing industry for five consecutive years and is now the highest rated company in the ACSI with a score of 90.”
- 2 0 0 1 ANNUAL REPORT - IIS Windows Server Amazon.com, Inc. (2001 annual report) Own record
“We are told this is the highest score ever recorded--not just for any retailer, but for any service company.”
- The Shrinking Distance Between the Best and the Rest | The American Customer Satisfaction Index American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) · 17 February 2026
“The highest-scoring companies from 2000 through 2013 routinely posted scores in the range of 88 to 91.”
Reasoning
The ACSI's own November 2000 press release (E1) says Amazon.com scored 84, "higher than any service sector company in ACSI", which supports both the score and the record. Amazon's 2001 annual report (E3) repeats that it was told this was the highest score ever recorded for any service company. The higher scores in the evidence, Heinz at 90 (E2) and the top scores of 88 to 91 from 2000 onward (E4), are not shown to belong to service companies. E2 places Heinz in food processing, which is outside the service sector.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry.” (said 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_134fa0da31b8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_134fa0da31b8
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.