ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“And that’s why 22 Walgreens are closing in San Francisco.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 17 November 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #547 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog)

Factual Economics and markets

22 Walgreens stores are closing in San Francisco because of shoplifting.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Parts: (a) 22 Walgreens stores in San Francisco were closing or had been announced for closure as of November 2021; (b) the closures were caused by shoplifting, which the quote implies with 'that's why'. True: Walgreens records or credible reporting confirm about 22 SF closures, and evidence (company statements plus data) shows retail theft was the main cause. Mostly true: the count is about right and theft was a stated major cause, with some dispute. Mixed: the count is right but the causal link is unsupported or contested, for example Walgreens cited theft but data on theft levels or store saturation point to other factors. Mostly false: the closures are real, but theft was a minor or unproven factor, or the 22 figure combines closures over several years and is presented as a current wave. False: there were no such closures, or the count is far off.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Walgreens to close 5 more S.F. stores, citing rising costs of retail crime San Francisco Chronicle · 13 October 2021

    “The closures will bring to 22 the number of Walgreens stores closed in San Francisco in the past five years.”
  2. E2 Is shoplifting forcing Walgreens to cut back in S.F.? Data on the closing stores puts the claim into perspective San Francisco Chronicle · 16 October 2021

    “Data released by the San Francisco Police Department does not support the explanation announced by Walgreens that it is closing five stores because of organized, rampant retail theft.”
  3. E3 ‘Out of control’: Organized crime drives S.F. shoplifting, closing 17 Walgreens in five years San Francisco Chronicle · 15 May 2021

    “The cost of business and shoplifting led Walgreens to shut 17 locations in San Francisco in the past five years”
  4. E4 Is shoplifting forcing Walgreens to cut back in S.F.? Data on the closing stores puts the claim into perspective San Francisco Chronicle · 16 October 2021

    “so I do think that there are other factors that come into play”

Reasoning

E1 shows that 22 was a cumulative count of Walgreens closures in San Francisco over five years, reached with five newly announced closures. It was not a current wave of 22 closures, and E3 confirms that 17 of them had already happened by May 2021. Walgreens blamed retail theft, but E2 reports that SFPD data does not support that explanation, and E4 quotes a speaker as saying other factors also came into play. The criteria classify a multi-year total presented as a current wave as mostly false.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “22 Walgreens stores are closing in San Francisco because of shoplifting.” (said 17 November 2021). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_fa069e3e6ef7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fa069e3e6ef7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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