ClaimsBill Ackman

“They are consolidating stores.”

Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)

Factual Economics and markets

Family Dollar is consolidating stores.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of June 2011. True: Family Dollar's filings, earnings calls or reliable press coverage show that the company was closing or consolidating stores as a deliberate programme around mid-2011. Mostly true: it was closing a significant number of underperforming stores at that time, though the closures were described as routine portfolio management rather than consolidation. Mixed: it had some closures but was also expanding its store count substantially. Mostly false: it had only routine, ordinary-course closures while pursuing net store growth. False: the evidence shows no store closures or consolidation, only expansion.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 0001193125-10-236638.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended August 28, 2010)

    “During fiscal 2011, we plan to renovate 600 to 800 stores at a projected cost of $100,000 to $130,000 per store.”
  2. E2 0001193125-10-236638.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended August 28, 2010)

    “We operate a chain of more than 6,800 general merchandise retail discount stores in 44 states, providing primarily low- and middle-income consumers with a selection of competitively priced merchandise in convenient neighborhood stores.”
  3. E3 Family Dollar Cites Q3 Margin Pressures Supermarket News · 29 June 2011

    “Comparable-store sales were up 4.7%, driven by both increased traffic and a higher average ticket.”
  4. E4 Form 10-K, Family Dollar Stores, Inc., fiscal year ended August 28, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Family Dollar Stores, Inc.)

    “During fiscal 2011, we plan to open approximately 300 new stores, a 50% increase over fiscal 2010 openings.”
  5. E5 Form 10-K, Family Dollar Stores, Inc., fiscal year ended August 28, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Family Dollar Stores, Inc.)

    “Our operational improvements, combined with softening real estate markets and a growing customer base, have resulted in additional opportunities for new store growth.”
  6. E6 0001157523-11-001803.txt - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · 30 March 2011

    “During the first half of fiscal 2011, the Company opened 146 new stores and closed 43 stores compared to 86 new stores and 52 closings in the first half of fiscal 2010.”
  7. E7 Family Dollar Falters, Trashes The Dollar Store Complex Forbes · 5 January 2011

    “It plans to open 300 new stores in fiscal 2011, and to close 80 to 100.”
  8. E8 Family Dollar-Ackman Pres-Ira Sohn Conf-5!25!11 Scribd (hosting a Pershing Square Capital Management presentation) · 25 May 2011 Own record

    “New Store Growth (~$60mm Capex, ~$15mm SG&A): 300 new store openings and 80-100 store closings, 3% net growth”

Reasoning

The evidence shows that in fiscal 2011 Family Dollar planned 80 to 100 store closings alongside about 300 openings, for about 3% net growth, and closed 43 stores in the first half of the year (E6, E7, E8). No item says whether these closings were routine portfolio management or a deliberate consolidation programme, and the criteria depend on that difference.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Family Dollar is consolidating stores.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f9325a313be6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f9325a313be6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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