There is a robust debate in the computing industry about how to create AGI and whether it can be created at all.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of March 2023. TRUE: computing and AI researchers, companies and commentators were then publicly disagreeing both about how to build artificial general intelligence (for example scaling large language models versus other approaches) and about whether AGI is achievable at all. MOSTLY TRUE: a lively debate existed, but mainly about one of the two points (approach, or feasibility), with the other discussed less. MIXED: debate existed only in narrow circles and was not widespread in the industry. MOSTLY FALSE: there was broad consensus on one of the two points, with only marginal dissent. FALSE: there was consensus on both how AGI would be built and that it can be built, with no real debate.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“As of 2023, the development and potential achievement of AGI remains a subject of intense debate within the AI community. While traditional consensus held that AGI was a distant goal, recent advancements have led some researchers and industry figures to claim that early forms of AGI may already exist.”
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E2 Artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“An additional challenge is the lack of clarity in defining what intelligence entails. Questions regarding consciousness, goal-setting, emotional capabilities, reasoning and brain replication remain contested within the broader research community, as does whether intelligence emerges as a consequence of scale.”
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E3 Artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 2023
“In 2023, Microsoft researchers published a detailed evaluation of GPT-4. They concluded: "Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system."”
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E4 Artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 2023
“"But most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that."”
Reasoning
E1 states that as of 2023 whether AGI can be developed or achieved was 'a subject of intense debate within the AI community', and E3 records Microsoft researchers' 2023 view that GPT-4 was an early form of AGI, which conflicts with other views. E2 says it is contested whether intelligence emerges from scale, which is a dispute about how to build AGI, but that passage is undated. The dated evidence comes from a single encyclopedia page and centres on feasibility, so the debate over approach is less firmly shown for March 2023.
Cite this claim
Bill Gates, “There is a robust debate in the computing industry about how to create AGI and whether it can be created at all.” (said March 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f7f65272452e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f7f65272452e
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Gates
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Mostly false
“For example, AI makes software developers at least twice as efficient, which makes coding cheaper while also creating demand elasticity for code.”
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Mostly true
“Even lack of control that I thought would be many years from now, we’re seeing lack of control.”
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Mostly true
“Sometimes I do it if there’s three of us: Claude, ChatGPT and me, debating these things.”
Bill Gates sometimes debates topics in a three-way conversation with Claude and ChatGPT.
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Resolved true
“These are people who are super expert on the thing, going, well, maybe we won’t be able to control these things.”
Leading AI experts are saying humans may not be able to control these AI systems.
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Mixed
“There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era.”
There is currently no plan to ease the entry into the AI era.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.