Eliezer Yudkowsky has often criticized the Federal Reserve for not creating enough money fast enough.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
True: multiple dated statements by Yudkowsky from before 2021-11-10 criticise the Federal Reserve for too tight a monetary policy, that is for not creating money fast enough. These could be tweets, Facebook posts or essays, for example market-monetarist commentary on 2008–2020 policy. Mostly true: such criticism exists but appears only a few times rather than 'often', or it targets central banks generally. Mixed: only one or two ambiguous instances. Mostly false: his past statements on the Fed are mainly about other issues, with at most a passing hint of this criticism. False: his record before the date shows no such criticism, or shows him criticising the Fed for loose money.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Frequently Asked Questions for Central Banks Undershooting Their Inflation Target — LessWrong LessWrong · 29 October 2017 Own record
“If you'd cut rates fast enough in 2008, you could have kept the money flow from cratering, and a 2% nominal interest rate would represent a lower real interest rate than we have today.”
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E2 Frequently Asked Questions for Central Banks Undershooting Their Inflation Target — LessWrong LessWrong · 29 October 2017 Own record
“Originally posted to social media on February 11, 2016.”
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E3 Yudkowsky's insight, Newcomb's Paradox, "air pockets", and long and variable leads - Econlib Econlib (EconLog, Scott Sumner) · 14 February 2016
“PPPS. Eliezer Yudkowsky has a wonderful introduction to market monetarist ideas, over at Facebook.”
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E4 Central banks should have listened to Eliezer Yudkowsky - Econlib Econlib (EconLog, Scott Sumner) · 7 November 2017
“It's probably the best single introduction to the market monetarist way of thinking in the entire blogosphere.”
Reasoning
E1 and E2 show that Yudkowsky wrote a dialogue, first posted to social media on February 11, 2016, arguing that a central bank should have cut rates faster in 2008 to keep the money flow from collapsing. That is criticism of monetary policy for being too tight. Scott Sumner, writing independently on Econlib in 2016 and 2017, describes Yudkowsky's piece as an introduction to market-monetarist ideas (E3, E4). However, the evidence covers essentially one piece, posted twice. It speaks to central banks in general, and none of the quotes names the Federal Reserve. That fits the 'mostly true' criterion (criticism exists but appears only a few times, or targets central banks generally) rather than the 'often' required for true.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Eliezer Yudkowsky has often criticized the Federal Reserve for not creating enough money fast enough.” (said 10 November 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f70387629645, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f70387629645
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Mostly true
“Your annual reminder that there is no such thing whatsoever as a legal duty for a corporation's Board or management to maximize its profits.”
There is no legal duty for a corporation's board or management to maximize its profits.
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Mixed
“I was observing that obvious-seeming hypothesis myself, sometime around the time of GPT 3.5.”
Yudkowsky himself observed the persona-selection-like hypothesis around the time of GPT 3.5.
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Mostly true
“The test-passing preference stands on its own once formed.”
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Mostly true
“LLMs surely have neural circuits they learned to model text streams from fictional and nonfictional personas that are not lying, deceiving, cheating.”
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Mostly true
“The predict-as-if-honest circuitry is contextual, invoked to predict some streams of text but not others.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.