ClaimsBill Ackman

“are more important today in the mortgage market than they’ve ever been”

Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn conference 5 May 2014 Bill Ackman Presentation At Ira Sohn 2014 Investment Conference (Hedge Fund Alpha)

Factual Economics and markets

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more important today in the mortgage market than they have ever been.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The measures are Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's share of new single-family mortgage originations funded or securitized, and their share of outstanding single-family mortgage debt, both as of 2013–2014. TRUE: their share on the main measure (share of new originations or securitizations) was at or near its historic high in 2013–2014. MOSTLY TRUE: the share was within a few percentage points of the high, or at a record on one measure but not the other. MIXED: one measure was at a record and the other was clearly below its peak. MOSTLY FALSE: their role was large but clearly below earlier peaks, for example 2008–2011 or the early 2000s. FALSE: both measures were well below their historic highs.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Housing Issues in the 113th Congress Congressional Research Service · 15 April 2015

    “over 60% of new residential mortgages originated in 2013 were backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, with FHA or the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) insuring an additional 20%.”
  2. E2 Housing Issues in the 113th Congress Congressional Research Service · 15 April 2015

    “During 2014, the share of new mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac had fallen to about 50%, while the FHA and VA share remained just above 20%.”
  3. E3 Housing Policy, Subprime Markets and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: What We Know, What We Think We Know and What We Don't Know George Washington University (Thomas and Van Order), St. Louis Fed conference draft · November 2010

    “during 2001-2003, the GSEs funded nearly 70% of all mortgages originated”
  4. E4 [PDF] To the Committee on Financial Services of the U.S. House of Representatives (Written Testimony of Dr. Dwight M. Jaffee) U.S. House Committee on Financial Services (testimony by UC Berkeley professor Dwight M. Jaffee) · 12 June 2013

    “The GSEs, together with the FHA and VA programs, now guarantee about 90% of all new U.S. mortgages.”

Reasoning

CRS reports that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac backed over 60% of new mortgages originated in 2013 (E1), and that this share fell to about 50% during 2014 (E2). An independent academic paper reports that the GSEs funded nearly 70% of all mortgages originated in 2001–2003 (E3). That places their 2013 share of originations below the nearly 70% reported for 2001–2003 [E3], and their 2014 share of about 50% further below it [E2]. The evidence gives no figure for their share of outstanding debt; their role was large, but on the main measure it was not at its historic high.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more important today in the mortgage market than they have ever been.” (said 5 May 2014). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_f554bd15a610, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f554bd15a610

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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