An increasing number of smart Britons are leaving the UK for the US or Dubai.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True: data up to late 2025 (ONS emigration statistics, US or UAE immigration data, or credible studies of high-earner or skilled emigration) show a rising number of skilled, highly educated or high-earning Britons leaving the UK, with the US and/or Dubai/UAE among the main destinations. Mostly true: the evidence shows rising skilled or wealthy emigration, but the US and Dubai are not clearly the main growth destinations, or the rise is shown for high-net-worth people rather than skilled workers generally. Mixed: the data are mixed, with some measures rising and others flat. Mostly false: the evidence rests only on anecdote or a narrow group (for example millionaire-migration estimates that have been disputed), while broader data show no clear increase. False: the data show emigration of skilled Britons to the US and Dubai flat or falling.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025 Office for National Statistics (ONS) · 27 November 2025
“The provisional estimate for total long-term emigration for the most recent period is 693,000, an increase of 43,000 from the updated YE June 2024 estimate of 650,000.”
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E2 UK emigration explained: what we know about Brits moving abroad Office for National Statistics (ONS) · 21 May 2026
“But it is not correct to say that our migration statistics show a recent rise in emigration of British nationals.”
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E3 Trump’s presidency sparks drop in UK–U.S. moves - IFA Magazine IFA Magazine (citing Compare My Move report) · 16 August 2025
“This is according to a Compare My Move report on international moves and enquiries, which states that there has been a 43% decline in Brits moving to the United States at the start of 2025 compared to the start of 2024”
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E4 The myth-buster’s guide to the “millionaire exodus” scare story - Tax Justice Network Tax Justice Network · 24 July 2025
“Millionaires are staying where they are, despite over 18000 news pieces published around the world since the start of 2024 claiming otherwise.”
Reasoning
E1 shows total UK long-term emigration rose to 693,000 in the year to June 2025, but that figure covers all nationalities, not Britons in particular. The ONS says directly that its statistics do not show a recent rise in emigration of British nationals (E2). A removals-company report found that Brits moving to the US fell 43% in early 2025 (E3), and the Tax Justice Network disputes the "millionaire exodus" story (E4). None of the evidence covers skilled Britons going to Dubai, and none shows skilled emigration specifically, so the broader data show no clear increase. That fits "mostly false" rather than a fully settled "false".
Cite this claim
Tyler Cowen, “An increasing number of smart Britons are leaving the UK for the US or Dubai.” (said 6 December 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_f0d93ab2c56f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f0d93ab2c56f
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Tyler Cowen
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Mostly false
“The World Bank seems weaker in relative terms, more displaced by private capital markets.”
The World Bank seems weaker in relative terms, more displaced by private capital markets.
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Mostly true
“There are some startups, but they’re not significant.”
In the university sector there are some startups, but they are not significant.
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Mostly true
“He has a new book *How Africa Works*”
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Mixed
“Both #1 (brain drain) and #2 have taken a hit in recent times.”
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Mostly false
“They are also, in my view, the biggest reasons why the UK currently is in economic trouble.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.